Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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480 FXUS64 KAMA 100815 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 315 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 One more day of showers and storms in the forecast before we go dry for the remainder of the week. As the region remains under northwest flow aloft, situated between the upper trough to our east and the upper ridge to our west, additional showers and storms will develop across portions of New Mexico and move into mainly the western Panhandles once again this afternoon and evening. While severe storms are not expected as shear is rather meager across the region, it will be possible for any storm to become strong with wind gusts being the main concern thanks to enough DCAPE available(at least 1600 J/kg). In addition, with recent rainfall in the western Panhandle, these could bring a risk for locally heavy rain and flash flooding. Storms should diminish through the evening, maybe linger just a little in the late night hours. Heights begin to rise from the west on Thursday as the upper ridge expands to the east. This will effectively cut off our chances for rain on Thursday and temperatures will increase a few more degrees. Highs on both Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid to upper 90s. Culin && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 We`ve been fooled by models before this summer, but the general consensus hasn`t budged that we`ll be back to warm and dry weather for several days this weekend into next week. Rising heights, weak flow aloft, and depleting moisture will continue to squash our precipitation chances as upper level ridging settles in. Confidence is high that temperatures in the 90s to low 100s can be anticipated Friday through Tuesday. Winds will remain on par for July, about 10-20 mph out of the south-southwest each day. There are some indications however, that moisture/rain may return by mid next week, around Tue-Wed at the earliest. Despite upper flow remaining weak, the 00z suite of global models have come into fair agreement that moisture will come back in spades by midweek. If this can occur in conjunction with any passing disturbances, a wetter pattern may reappear. But this is an early trend with a wide margin of error, so don`t get hopes up for rain quite yet. We`ll continue to monitor this trend moving forward, but in the meantime, will try to hone in on any days with higher triple digit temperature potential. Harrel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Additional showers and storms should develop once again this afternoon with potential to affect KAMA and KDHT. Have put in VCSH in the forecast for now and will make adjustments with future forecasts. Main time for storms would be around 21Z-03Z. Culin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 93 66 94 66 / 20 30 10 10 Beaver OK 94 65 96 67 / 10 0 0 10 Boise City OK 91 62 93 64 / 10 10 0 0 Borger TX 98 68 100 70 / 10 10 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 94 65 96 66 / 20 30 0 0 Canyon TX 91 64 92 64 / 20 30 10 10 Clarendon TX 92 66 94 67 / 10 20 10 0 Dalhart TX 92 60 94 62 / 20 20 0 0 Guymon OK 94 63 96 66 / 10 10 0 0 Hereford TX 92 63 93 64 / 30 30 10 10 Lipscomb TX 95 66 97 69 / 10 10 0 10 Pampa TX 93 65 95 67 / 20 10 0 10 Shamrock TX 94 66 96 67 / 10 10 10 0 Wellington TX 96 67 97 69 / 10 10 10 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...28