676
FXUS64 KAMA 101741
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1241 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

One more day of showers and storms in the forecast before we go dry
for the remainder of the week. As the region remains under northwest
flow aloft, situated between the upper trough to our east and the
upper ridge to our west, additional showers and storms will develop
across portions of New Mexico and move into mainly the western
Panhandles once again this afternoon and evening. While severe
storms are not expected as shear is rather meager across the region,
it will be possible for any storm to become strong with wind gusts
being the main concern thanks to enough DCAPE available(at least
1600 J/kg). In addition, with recent rainfall in the western
Panhandle, these could bring a risk for locally heavy rain and flash
flooding. Storms should diminish through the evening, maybe linger
just a little in the late night hours.

Heights begin to rise from the west on Thursday as the upper ridge
expands to the east. This will effectively cut off our chances for
rain on Thursday and temperatures will increase a few more degrees.
Highs on both Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid to upper
90s.

Culin

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

We`ve been fooled by models before this summer, but the general
consensus hasn`t budged that we`ll be back to warm and dry
weather for several days this weekend into next week. Rising
heights, weak flow aloft, and depleting moisture will continue to
squash our precipitation chances as upper level ridging settles
in. Confidence is high that temperatures in the 90s to low 100s
can be anticipated Friday through Tuesday. Winds will remain on
par for July, about 10-20 mph out of the south-southwest each day.
There are some indications however, that moisture/rain may return
by mid next week, around Tue-Wed at the earliest. Despite upper
flow remaining weak, the 00z suite of global models have come into
fair agreement that moisture will come back in spades by midweek.
If this can occur in conjunction with any passing disturbances, a
wetter pattern may reappear. But this is an early trend with a
wide margin of error, so don`t get hopes up for rain quite yet.
We`ll continue to monitor this trend moving forward, but in the
meantime, will try to hone in on any days with higher triple digit
temperature potential.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

TAFs continue as VFR for the new 18Z period. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of AMA and DHT this
afternoon and evening. None are expected to directly impact the
terminals at this time. However, given how sporadic the activity
may be, if a thunderstorm were to form over any site amendments
will become necessary. Generally light winds are forecast for the
whole duration of the period. Perhaps some light gusts may occur
from the west-southwest this afternoon, between 15-20 kts.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66  94  66  94 /  10  10  10   0
Beaver OK                  65  96  67  97 /  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              62  93  64  94 /  10  10   0   0
Borger TX                  68 100  70 101 /  10  10  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              65  96  66  97 /  10  10  10   0
Canyon TX                  64  92  64  93 /  10  10  10   0
Clarendon TX               66  94  67  95 /  10  10  10   0
Dalhart TX                 60  94  62  95 /   0  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  63  96  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                63  93  64  95 /  10  10  10   0
Lipscomb TX                66  97  69  97 /  10  10  10   0
Pampa TX                   65  95  67  95 /  10  10  10   0
Shamrock TX                66  96  67  96 /  10  10  10   0
Wellington TX              67  97  69  98 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...55