377
FXUS64 KAMA 110814
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
314 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The main H500 high pressure system over the Great Basin region as
of the latest 08Z satellite obs will help to continue our monsoon
season over the Panhandles. Northerly H500 flow will help to
displace perturbations in the main mid level clockwise flow.
Latest 11/00Z model and numerical guidance shows the chance for
an shower or thunderstorm across the Panhandles (less than 20%
chance). Everyone has a slight chance, but overall, if a storm
develops later this afternoon aided by diurnal heating, it should
be limited in coverage. A strong wind gusts and/or localized
flooding from heavy rainfall will be possible in a more robust
storm. Rain chances may decrease even further for tomorrow (~10%
chance) as the main center of the H500 high pressure system shifts
further east over Utah. High temperatures today and tomorrow will
be above average each day. Highs each day will range from the mid
90s to the 100-103 degree range.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The H500 high pressure looks to grow eastward from the Four
Corners region towards the Plains this weekend, resulting in
hotter temperatures for the Panhandles. Currently, the NBM shows
Sat-Mon exhibiting widespread mid to upper 90s, with the typical
hot spots seeing triple digit highs. The GFS continues to run hot
relative to other guidance, depicting the possibility for more
widespread 100s this weekend (mainly across the northeast
Panhandles). If trends hold, wouldn`t be surprised to see forecast
highs increase as we get closer. By Mon-Tue, models indicate an
inverted trough could impinge on upper ridging, providing some
relief to the west Texas plains. If we can see deep layer moisture
find its way back to the region, a 20-30% chance for showers and
storms may exist in the afternoon-evening hours of Tuesday through
Thursday. This positive signal hasn`t gone away yet, especially
by Wednesday onward, but confidence in precipitation remains
somewhat low. At the very least, the decaying ridge should provide
some welcomed heat relief.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the 06Z TAF period at all TAF
sites. Winds will be out of the south and southwest at 5-15 kts
under mostly clear skies.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                96  68  97  69 /  10  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  97  68 101  71 /  10  10   0   0
Boise City OK              95  65  97  67 /  10  10   0   0
Borger TX                 101  70 103  72 /  10  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              98  68 100  69 /  10  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  95  66  96  67 /  10  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               96  68  97  69 /  10  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 96  63  97  65 /  10  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  97  66 100  68 /  10  10   0   0
Hereford TX                96  66  98  67 /  10  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                98  68 101  71 /  10  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   97  68  97  68 /  10  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                98  67  98  69 /  10  10   0   0
Wellington TX             100  68 100  70 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...29