804
FXUS64 KAMA 111936
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
236 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Today, isolated thunderstorms are likely in various locations
across the CWA. Diurnal heating is the main driver behind the
thunderstorm activity, and CAMs have consistently shown that
storms will generate in the High Plains. However, the
inconsistencies lie in where exactly storms will form. Current,
(as of 1 PM), convection has started in the northwest. As mixed
layer CIN erodes throughout the afternoon, thunderstorms should
expand east and south. Overall, the environment is lacking is
favorable instability, shear, and moisture quality for strong
storms, but enough is present for pulse type development. This
activity should continue until sunset when we lose day time
heating. Tomorrow, more of the upper level high builds overhead
and a stable atmosphere should allow for a break in precipitation
activity.

Highs are proving to be hotter than originally forecast due to
increased warm air advection. More areas may see the triple
digits today, but no area in particular should become hot enough
to meet criteria for heat products. The southeast Texas Panhandle
currently has the best chance to exceed 100 degrees this
afternoon. Tomorrow, 850 mb temperatures indicate that WAA will
continue across the Panhandles. Short term guidance allows for
more 100 degree temperatures to build into the area, and they
favor our eastern zones at this time. No heat related products are
active for the moment, but we will be watching the Palo Duro
Canyon closely since there is still a slight chance (20-30%) that
the canyon floor may reach 105 degrees. All concerns will be for
temperature values, as dewpoints are no longer high enough for the
heat index to surpass the actual temperature.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The upper level trough continues it`s advancement eastward this
weekend into next week. Simultaneously, the ridge moves in and
settles over our region for a time. Models have struggled to move
the high over us for the past few day, and former tropical cyclone
Beryl helped maintain the jet stream trough further south than
originally anticipated. That said, guidance is in agreement that
this pattern will have changed by the start of the long term
period. Even so, another pattern shift may occur by mid next week.
Long term guidance is alluding to the center of the upper high
transitioning back west. This would open up more opportunities
for troughs to move in, and put us back into northwesterly flow.

Temperatures for the coming days should be above average with 90`s
and 100`s possible until Wednesday. By Wednesday, guidance
suggests that a cold front may move across the CWA and cool down
day time temperatures back into the 80`s for the remainder of the
extended. Confidence on this outcome is still uncertain, but with
the models showing some consistency between runs, it`s an outcome
that is within the realm of possibility. Thunderstorms also have
a chance to return to the Panhandles by Tuesday night due to the
potential pattern change already mentioned above. At this time,
chances range from 25-49% in the latter periods of the extended.
NBM values were reviewed and only some minor adjustments were
made. Palo Duro Canyon temperatures may become a concern for next
week, so we will watch them closely. NBM PoPs are reflective of
the current shifts in the overall pattern the long range models
are making, so no major changes were implemented.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

TAFs remain VFR for this new 18Z period. Thunderstorm chances this
afternoon are not high enough to warrant mentions at any site at
this time. Of course, if any storm can develop near a terminal
amendments would be needed. However, our confidence in this
occurring is still low. Mostly light winds are forecast for this
afternoon. Tomorrow, breezy west-southwesterly winds should
manifest by the morning hours at all TAF sites.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                69  98  69  97 /  10   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  67 102  73 100 /  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              66  98  68  97 /  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                  70 104  73 102 /  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              68 100  69 100 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  66  96  68  96 /  10   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               68  98  69  96 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 64  97  65  98 /  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  66 101  69 100 /  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                66  97  67  98 /  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                69 102  73 100 /  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   69  98  69  97 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                67  99  69  98 /  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX              68 101  70  99 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55