866
FXUS64 KAMA 141901
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
201 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

-Hot to very hot temperatures are expected through Tuesday with
 60-80% chance of exceeding 105 degrees across a large part of the
 area Monday afternoon. Thus, heat impacts are expected and heat
 headlines have been issued. Folks should avoid outdoor activities
 during the afternoon hours today through Tuesday.

-A more active storm pattern is expected to setup Tuesday through
 next week. Everyone is not guaranteed to get rain, but some
 will. Localized flooding and severe weather can`t be ruled out.

-An extended period of below normal temperatures are expected
 Wednesday into at least next weekend as a anomalously cool
 airmass dives down out of Canada.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Broad area of 597dm high pressure centered just east of the Four
Corners continues to dominate weather across the region. Northeast
winds aloft and warm H5 temperatures have kept the area mostly
cloud free, and the extra insolation has resulted in another day
with temperatures around 98 to 105 degrees across the area. Dew
points in the low 60s across the south have taken some time to mix
out, but it seems to be happening as of 18z as values are now
mostly in the mid 50s. The highest probability of hitting 105+
will be across the northeast TX Panhandle up into Beaver County,
just ahead of a stalled outflow boundary that moved in from
overnight convection across the northern plains. Thus, have
continued the heat advisory that was issued on the previous shift.
Palo Duro Canyon has continued the trend of staying within one
degree of KAMA with southwest winds helping to mix out the
"furnace effect" of the canyon. That said, it will probably still
get close to 105 degrees by peak heating, plenty warm enough for
heat impacts for anyone that might attempt to hike in the heat.
Thunderstorms are currently developing along the Sangre De Cristo
and San Juan Mountains, but the unfavorable steering winds should
keep mountain convection out of the area. The only caveat would
be if a brief storm could develop along the outflow in the far
northwest zones late this afternoon. Overall chances of seeing
lightning or measurable precip are very low (<10%).

A similar story is expected tomorrow even though the H5 heights do
start to weaken as a shortwave crosses the northern plains.
Despite this, models and ensembles are insistent that 850mb
temperatures will be warmer tomorrow along with max surface
temperatures. The latest HREF probabilities range from 70 to 100%
for temperatures of at least 105 degrees extending from the
northeast zones, through the Canadian River Valley, and from Palo
Duro Canyon into the southeast zones. A few HREF members (along
with global ensembles) are hitting 110+ in Beaver County, and
really close to 110 in parts of the Canadian River Valley which
match closer to the MAV statistical output (MET slightly cooler).
Have gone ahead with the issuance of a heat advisory for these
areas, knowing that the southeast extent of the area may not quiet
reach criteria but heat impacts should be there regardless,
especially considering dew points should be elevated into the mid
50s to lowers 60s which could lead to some heat index impacts,
including Palo Duro Canyon. By tomorrow evening, an anomalously
cool cold front begins its journey south out of east-central
Canada as a broad trough ejects across the northern plains and
Great Lakes Region. This will help to retrograde and weaken the
upper high that has been in control across our area, and it may
retrograde enough by evening to allow for some storm activity to
move off the mountains into the northwest zones. Some models even
bring activity as far south as the central TX Panhandle after 06z,
but moisture will be limited. Gusty winds would be possible given
inverted-V soundings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The upper level high pressure is expected to continue to
retrograde Tuesday into Wednesday, putting the area in northwest
flow aloft. Meanwhile, an unseasonably strong cold front will be
moving through the midwest with a broad surface high settling in
over the OH Valley region by Wednesday. It looks like an initial
wind shift will arrive in the northern combined Panhandles on
Tuesday (possibly augmented by outflow from storms Monday night
into Tuesday morning), but the main "backdoor" cold front won`t
arrive until Wednesday. With increasing monsoonal moisture in the
mid levels, and increasing low level moisture behind the front,
PWATs will be on the rise to 90th percentile or higher. Models
have gone back and fourth with timing and placement of shortwaves
in the flow, but it seems like storm activity will be on the
increase especially late Tuesday into Wednesday, with additional
chances into the weekend. Severe storms and flooding certainly
can`t be ruled out, especially with any stalled boundaries that
may setup. Some models have suggested large CAPE values behind the
front on Wednesday, and while flow is not expected to be strong
aloft, veering profiles will promoted modest effective shear. Of
course, the devil will be in the details and even though there are
several ensemble members suggesting very benificial rains, there
are still plenty of things that can go wrong (like poor timing of
shortwaves or frontal position). The good news is that below
normal temperatures (e.g. highs in the 80s) look to hang out
across a good chunk of the southern plains well into next weekend
and potentially into the following week.

Ward

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail with mostly clear skies. South
southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots are expected through the
period with occasional gusts up to 25 knots during the late
morning and afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX               102  72 102  74 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                 105  75 107  72 /   0   0   0  10
Boise City OK             103  70 103  68 /  10  10  10  20
Borger TX                 107  75 109  75 /   0   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX             105  71 105  72 /   0   0   0  10
Canyon TX                  99  69 101  71 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               99  72 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                103  67 103  67 /   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                 105  72 106  70 /   0  10  10  10
Hereford TX               100  68 103  71 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX               105  75 107  74 /   0   0   0  10
Pampa TX 101 72 103 73 / 0 0 0 0 anomolously coolShamrock TX 101
72 103 73 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 102 72 104 74 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ003>005-008>010-
     317.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ002>005-
     007>010-317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for OKZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07