Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
513 FXUS64 KAMA 121804 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 104 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Another couple of roasting July days are in store, as more locations across the Panhandles are slated to see triple digit highs. We`re still seated along the periphery of an upper level high situated near the Great Basin to Four Corners region, as it builds eastward. Although this north-northeasterly flow aloft, no notable disturbances, and weak instability are less than ideal for any additional precipitation chances today, we can`t rule out about a 10% chance of development over northwest Oklahoma or southeast Colorado sneaking into northern portions of the forecast area this afternoon-evening. Copy and paste the forecast for Saturday with temperatures still climbing in the upper 90s to low 100s, and a very slim shot at diurnal convection in the north. Main take aways: It`s going to be hot, especially in Palo Duro Canyon and other hot spots where highs could approach 105 degrees. Perhaps a few folks in the northern Panhandles could see an afternoon-evening storm with heavy rain and gusty winds. But the odds are quite low and severe storms aren`t expected. Finally, south-southwest winds will be on the breezy side at times, with peak gusts around 20-30 mph. Harrel && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 The main H500 high over the Four Corners Region will continue to dictate the weather pattern in the long term forecast period. Starting on Sunday through most of Tuesday, the main center of the High and its 594 decameter contour will extend east into the Panhandles. This will support large scale upper level descent in the main atmospheric profile. This should support dry conditions during this time period along with warm temperatures. High temperatures Sunday into Tuesday will remain slightly above average with some areas as high as the 100-103 range each day. From Tuesday night through the remainder of the long term forecast period, the main H500 high begins to shift back to the west towards the Great Basin region. Mid level northerly flow will return to the southern High Plains and bring back diurnally driven chances for showers and thunderstorms. Aided also by a cold front by mid week, this could help to make some storms more strong to possible severe with damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain the main hazards at this time. High temperatures behind the passing cold front will drop to slightly below average going towards the end of the forecast period. Meccariello && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with winds generally out of the south southwest in the 10-15kt range, with some gusts up to 25kts at times. Very low chance (~5%) of an isolated shower/storm to pop up at any given terminal from now through 3z this evening. Should one occur, very brief impacts are anticipated. Weber && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 98 71 98 69 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 101 73 101 71 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 98 68 98 67 / 0 10 0 0 Borger TX 104 73 103 72 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 101 71 101 70 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 97 68 96 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 98 70 97 70 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 99 66 99 65 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 101 70 101 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 98 68 98 67 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 102 73 101 71 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 98 71 97 69 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 101 70 98 70 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 101 70 99 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...89