688
FXUS64 KAMA 050905
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
405 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Showers and storms have been ongoing overnight in relation to a weak
shortwave moving through the region, the stationary boundary
lingering in the vicinity, the lift from the right entrance region
of a 100kt 300mb jet. This all has been enough to bring mainly
showers to the Oklahoma Panhandle, but thunderstorms really
blossomed after 1am across the central and eastern Panhandles.
Expect that this activity should continue into the morning hours.
Rainfall amounts have been picking up this morning with the winner
so far being the Lake McClellan mesonet at nearly 2 inches of
rain. As storms that may be slow moving or train over the same
locations, they could bring some locally heavy rainfall and lead
to flash flooding concerns. This activity should shift south and
east through the morning but the area remains under the trough
axis through Saturday. Thanks to the increase in rain and cloud
cover, conditions look to be rather cool and below normal. Highs
are forecast to range from the mid 70s in the west to the lower
80s in the east.

While there looks to be a lull in precipitation activity during the
afternoon today, another wave this evening may bring additional
showers and storms to the western Panhandle. These storms should
diminish during the late night hours and not linger much overnight.

For Saturday, the upper trough still will be lingering in the area,
just to our east. Thanks to the surface high also to our east,
moisture will continue to increase across the region. A surface low
will be developing to our north across KS/CO/NE. This will help to
generate storms to our north, but outflow from this activity could
generate showers and storms across the forecast area during the
afternoon. The main concerns would be damaging wind gusts and some
isolated hail as mid level lapse rates should be steep (around or
exceeding 7 C/km) and wind shear around 30-40kts. Much of the
forecast area has been outlooked for a marginal risk to account for
this activity.

Culin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

On Sunday, with the upper trough still sitting to our east, a
perturbation within that mid level flow will traverse out of
Colorado and into the Oklahoma. Another surface low looks to develop
just to our north and west and a front is forecast to come south
into and through the forecast area. The best combination of
moisture, instability may reside across the eastern Panhandles and
into Oklahoma, and this is where strong to severe storms may be
possible during the late afternoon and evening hours. MUCAPE
exceeding 2000 J/kg, 40-45kts of deep layer shear and steep midlevel
lapse rates nearing or exceeding 8C/km should yield some threat for
large hail and damaging winds.

Through the week, the 500mb through will be lingering in the area,
resulting on general northwest flow aloft. This will continue to
bring potential for rain and storms to the region through the week,
mostly diurnal but some potential remains for storms to linger
overnight. By Tuesday into Wednesday, the upper trough looks to
begin to absorb the landing tropical cyclone Beryl and finally exit
to the east. As this occurs, the upper ridge to our west looks like
it wants to move to the east, but may be delayed in doing so until
the pesky trough finally moves later in the week. The resulting
pattern will be moderating high temperatures back closer to normal
and some small, at this time, potential for showers and storms.


Culin

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions are currently in place at all TAF sites this
morning, but expect this to change over the next few hours. MVFR
ceilings should move into KAMA and KDHT by 08Z. The question also
becomes do overnight showers and storms affect TAF sites and which
ones. At this time, the current model guidance suggests that KGUY
and KDHT have the better potential to see showers and storms by
around 09-15Z and have included VCSH in the forecast for now. This
will need to be monitored as the night goes on, but it is possible
KAMA will be on the fringe of activity. Winds will be out of the
northeast overnight, switching out of the east by morning and then
out of the southeast through the day. Speeds will be around
10-15kts.

Culin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                79  61  87  66 /  60  20  20  30
Beaver OK                  83  61  89  64 /  30   0  10  40
Boise City OK              79  57  87  60 /  30  20  20  20
Borger TX                  85  64  92  68 /  60  20  20  30
Boys Ranch TX              81  61  90  66 /  50  30  20  30
Canyon TX                  77  61  87  65 /  50  30  20  30
Clarendon TX               79  63  86  67 /  60  20  20  30
Dalhart TX                 79  58  88  61 /  40  30  20  20
Guymon OK                  82  59  88  63 /  30  10  20  40
Hereford TX                79  61  89  66 /  50  40  20  20
Lipscomb TX                84  61  89  67 /  50   0  10  40
Pampa TX                   80  61  86  66 /  50  10  20  30
Shamrock TX                83  63  88  67 /  60  10  10  30
Wellington TX              83  63  89  68 /  60  10  10  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....28
AVIATION...28