338
FXUS64 KAMA 122343
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
643 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A pretty quiet short term forecast.  Current satellite shows a
weak cu field along the southern Panhandles. An isolated storm may
be possible this afternoon, but would be short lived if it
occurs. Overall, high pressure slowly builds east from the Four
Corners. A lee surface low will continue south to southwest flow
at the surface and lower dewpoints. This will make the storms
development harder, but not impossible. Highs will still be near
100 today and again tomorrow. Given that tomorrow will have
nearly the same setup, the chances of precipitation tomorrow are
about the same.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The quiet weather continues as not much changes in the pattern on
Sunday and Monday. Temperatures may move a degree or two in either
direction, but overall, still hot and mostly dry. Tuesday onward
is expected to have a pattern change. An upper level trough will
approach the Panhandles and could bring showers/storms to the
Panhandles Tuesday night into Wednesday. Additionally, we`ll start
to see some return surface flow of higher dewpoints, and we could
be looking at stalled out boundaries leading to further chances
of showers and storms on Wednesday and Thursday. While NBM pops
are higher on Wednesday, overall pattern looks to favor the best
chances Tuesday night. Still, showers and storms would be possible
Tuesday through Thursday, it`s just the setup looks best Tuesday
evening at this time.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Strong winds will persist through the next 24 hours of the new 00Z
TAF period. Winds will switch between the south and southwest
through much of the period, and decrease in speed some overnight.
Low level wind shear is also forecast at GUY tonight, beginning
around 08Z and lasting until 12Z. Tomorrow afternoon, southerly
winds will restrengthen. Sustained speeds may range between 15-20
kts, gusting to 30 kts at times.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                71  98  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  74 101  70 102 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              69  98  67  99 /  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                  73 103  72 104 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              70 101  69 101 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  68  96  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               69  97  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 66  99  65 100 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  69 101  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                67  98  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                73 101  71 101 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   71  97  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                69  98  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              69  99  71 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...55