430
FXUS64 KAMA 130533
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1233 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A pretty quiet short term forecast.  Current satellite shows a
weak cu field along the southern Panhandles. An isolated storm may
be possible this afternoon, but would be short lived if it
occurs. Overall, high pressure slowly builds east from the Four
Corners. A lee surface low will continue south to southwest flow
at the surface and lower dewpoints. This will make the storms
development harder, but not impossible. Highs will still be near
100 today and again tomorrow. Given that tomorrow will have
nearly the same setup, the chances of precipitation tomorrow are
about the same.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The quiet weather continues as not much changes in the pattern on
Sunday and Monday. Temperatures may move a degree or two in either
direction, but overall, still hot and mostly dry. Tuesday onward
is expected to have a pattern change. An upper level trough will
approach the Panhandles and could bring showers/storms to the
Panhandles Tuesday night into Wednesday. Additionally, we`ll start
to see some return surface flow of higher dewpoints, and we could
be looking at stalled out boundaries leading to further chances
of showers and storms on Wednesday and Thursday. While NBM pops
are higher on Wednesday, overall pattern looks to favor the best
chances Tuesday night. Still, showers and storms would be possible
Tuesday through Thursday, it`s just the setup looks best Tuesday
evening at this time.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Main talking point tonight is from marginal LLWS at KGUY as a
40-50 kt LLJ sets up overhead. This should taper off through the
morning hours. Otherwise breezy winds out of the south-southwest
at 15-25 kts are expected at all sites, with VFR skies.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                98  70  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                 101  71 102  72 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              98  67  99  67 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                 104  72 104  72 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX             101  69 101  70 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  96  67  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               96  70  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 99  65 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                 101  67 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                98  67  98  67 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX               100  70 101  72 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   98  69  98  71 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                98  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              99  71 100  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...38