Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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614 FXUS64 KAMA 130826 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 326 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 It`s understandable if you`re experiencing deja vu with the forecast, because it`s just going to be another hot and breezy July day. Moisture remains relatively scarce compared to this time last week, as high pressure aloft is dominant. The only real prayer of precipitation today would be across the northern Panhandles this evening, where mountain convection has about a 10% chance to survive the trip south from Colorado/Kansas. Temperatures today likely won`t be quite as bad as yesterday, but are still slated to be in the upper 90s to low 100s. Tomorrow will be even drier and a couple degrees hotter, with winds slightly diminishing out of the south. Not terribly worried about any heat advisories being needed on Sunday, but won`t rule out some locations such as the canyon approaching 105 degrees. Even the central to eastern Oklahoma Panhandle has about a 30-60% probability to reach 105 based on hi-resolution model guidance. Either way, it`ll be a hot one! Harrel && .LONG TERM ... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Same old same old to start the work week on Monday: it`ll be hot. The upper level high pressure system seated to our west won`t lose its grip on the region quite yet, allowing heat to stick around. On top of that, the northwest Panhandles will once again be targeted for a low chance (10-20%) of weak afternoon-evening showers/storms. Heat will remain at the forefront of the forecast though, with highs nudging slightly higher than Sunday. 100 degree temperatures or higher could exist across the entire Panhandles, with a 20-40% probability for scattered locations (including Palo Duro Canyon) topping out around 105 degrees. Our tune changes come mid to late week when the upper high gradually breaks down and northwest flow returns. By Tue-Wed, moisture content goes up, and a cold front will move into the area. Extra sources of lift should help initiate daily shower and storm chances through Friday, depending on how much moisture can survive behind the cold front. Model guidance has been flip- flopping somewhat on the extent of rain chances, but ensemble support appears to be in favor of the pattern change. Either way, the front will provide a respectable cool down for this time of year, dropping highs down to the 80s and low 90s. Harrel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Main talking point tonight is from marginal LLWS at KGUY as a 40-50 kt LLJ sets up overhead. This should taper off through the morning hours. Otherwise breezy winds out of the south-southwest at 15-25 kts are expected at all sites, with VFR skies. Harrel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 98 69 99 70 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 101 71 103 70 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 98 67 101 66 / 0 10 0 0 Borger TX 104 71 105 72 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 101 69 102 69 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 97 67 98 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 97 69 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 99 66 100 64 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 101 68 103 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 98 67 100 67 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 100 71 102 71 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 97 69 98 70 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 98 69 99 71 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 99 71 101 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...38