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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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047 FXUS64 KAMA 160602 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 102 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A robust upper-level ridge is stationed over the Panhandles leading to very hot temperatures today, with multiple daily high records likely to be broken. A weak "cold" front is forecast to move into the Oklahoma Panhandle later this afternoon and into the evening which may provide enough surface convergence to force some showers or thunderstorms in the northern combined Panhandles. Given very high DCAPE values around 1900 J/kg, any shower or thunderstorm will be capable of producing gusty winds. The front will move further south into the Panhandles tonight and through Tuesday morning. Some models suggest that it will stall somewhere around the Canadian River Valley, while others bring it to the I-40 corridor by 12 PM Tuesday. Will have to wait and see how much activity there is tonight behind the boundary in Kansas as any outflow associated with those storms could help push the front further south. Therefore, it`s not entirely out of the realm of possibilities that the front will move through the Panhandles by 12 PM. There will be moisture pooled up behind the front, and temperatures are expected to be in the 90s. If the front does indeed stall out, temperatures south of the front may reach or exceed 100 degrees. If the front remains in the Panhandles through the afternoon hours, there`s a 10-20% chance that some pulse thunderstorms could develop. By the late afternoon hours, surface winds behind the front are forecast to turn from northerly to southeasterly or easterly. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Rockies in response to a weak shortwave trough in the afternoon hours, and these thunderstorms will move easterly into the Panhandles. The current expectation is that these storms will grow upscale into an MCS by the time they reach the Panhandles. A rather unstable environment is expected to be in place across the area, with MLCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, possibly as high as 3000 J/kg if the NAM is right. As one would expect for mid-July, winds aloft won`t be anything to write home about, but the strong directional shear should support effective shear values around 20-30 kts. That, and with 500mb temperatures around -5C to -7C, may support an instance or two of hail up to quarter size. But if the NAM instability verifies, half dollar size hail can`t be ruled out. But the primary threat will be damaging winds given DCAPE values around 1400-1700 J/kg. Furthermore, PWATs are expected to be around 1.4" to 1.6" which is above the 90th percentile, and freezing levels will be around 14000- 16000 feet. These two factors suggest that very heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm, and that localized flash flooding can`t be ruled out. The MCS should exit the Panhandles by around 12 AM to 2 AM, but additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible further south throughout the night that have the potential to produce some gusty winds. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A strong upper-level ridge is expected to get stuck in the Intermountain West through the long-term period with troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeastern US. This results in northwesterly to north-northwesterly flow aloft as multiple weak shortwave troughs are favored to impact the Panhandles. Cooler than average temperatures are expected through this long-term period with daily chances for rain and thunderstorms. It is tough to pick out any specific day that could have more of a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms since there should be some days where there is convection and/or clouds that linger through the morning that interrupt destabilization. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Mid-level cloud decks are spreading across the northern Panhandles tonight behind a southward advancing outflow boundary. Another boundary/front will settle over the Panhandles later this morning-afternoon, likely along or just north of the I-40 corridor. During the afternoon hours, scattered pop up showers and storms will certainly be possible near all terminals, but confidence in any placement and timing of this activity is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Higher confidence exists later in the evening closer to 00z and beyond when a complex of storms enters the northern Panhandles, likely impacting KGUY and KDHT, with a chance to make it as far south as KAMA. Winds will be changing directions periodically due to the multiple boundaries and storms in play. Stronger wind gusts of 40+ kts will be possible with any stronger storms today. Harrel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 101 69 90 65 / 20 40 40 50 Beaver OK 98 65 84 62 / 10 60 20 20 Boise City OK 97 63 82 60 / 30 70 50 40 Borger TX 106 70 93 67 / 20 50 40 50 Boys Ranch TX 103 68 91 65 / 20 50 40 60 Canyon TX 101 68 90 64 / 20 30 40 60 Clarendon TX 102 70 90 65 / 20 20 30 40 Dalhart TX 100 63 86 61 / 20 60 50 50 Guymon OK 98 64 84 61 / 10 70 30 40 Hereford TX 102 68 92 65 / 20 30 30 60 Lipscomb TX 101 67 87 64 / 10 50 30 30 Pampa TX 100 67 88 63 / 20 40 40 40 Shamrock TX 103 70 91 65 / 20 20 30 30 Wellington TX 106 71 94 66 / 20 20 30 40 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ019-020. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...38