949
FXUS64 KAMA 080821
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
321 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

As advertised, the overnight round of showers and storms is underway
across the region. Storms have been able to reinvigorate coming out
of Colorado along the stalled 700mb front located across the
northern Panhandles. This is also where the best low level moisture
advection has taken place. A few showers started to develop across
the southeast Panhandles but have since diminished as there lacks
much forcing in that area. Hi-res models have not been overly
helpful this morning with the ongoing situation but overall these
storms should continue to push south through the early morning hours
as the stalled front also pushes to the south. A better environment
looks to exist further south of the front with better instability,
mid level lapse rates and deep layer shear. However, the current
issues are that the outflow keeps outrunning these storms, modifying
the environment enough to preclude stronger storms from either
developing or sustaining themselves. There remains some potential
for multiple storms training across the same region, but thus far
rainfall rates have been rather meager, lessening the risk for flash
flooding. Given how things have trended and some CAMs that are doing
ok with the situation, the lack of sustained areas of rainfall and
where the rain does occur, the rates are not that high, will go
ahead and cancel the Flood Watch. While storms and rain can occur in
these areas, just not as confident in the potential for flooding.

Looking ahead, these showers and storms should continue to move
south through the Panhandles today, at times becoming invigorated
and possibly pulsing up to strong to severe, but overall should
remain subsevere and bring potential for heavy rainfall. The bulk of
the rain should be south of the region by later morning/early
afternoon with drying conditions occurring from north to south. Some
showers or storms may linger in the west coming out of New Mexico
through the afternoon but as drier air from the landfalling Beryl
makes it way toward the Texas Panhandles, this should effectively
end our chances for rain today.

On another note, with cloudy conditions and thanks to the rainfall
we do get and northerly winds behind the front, conditions today
should be rather pleasant for mid July. Highs today look to only top
out in the 70s and lower 80s, resulting in a rather nice afternoon.

Quieter conditions are expected tonight through Tuesday as the main
upper trough swings east, taking the remnants of Beryl with it. This
will leave the Panhandles mostly high and dry through Tuesday. There
could be some showers and storms in the western Panhandles coming
off the New Mexico mountains and interacting with the lingering
moisture in the west. At this time, chances are around 20% and don`t
cover a large portion of the forecast area, but something to keep an
eye on Tuesday afternoon.

Culin

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The long-term starts Wednesday with robust upper-level ridge
centered over Nevada and an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes,
leaving the Panhandles in northwesterly flow aloft that trends
toward northerly Wednesday night. This pattern is favorable for
thunderstorms to develop on the higher terrain to the west. For now,
there is around a 20% chance that this activity will make it into
the far western Panhandles later Wednesday afternoon and into the
evening, but that depends upon how quickly (or slowly) the flow
aloft turns northerly.

Thursday, the flow over the Panhandles becomes weak with northerly
winds over the Rockies. This will favor thunderstorms along the
Rockies but not near the Panhandles. Expect temperatures to continue
a warming trend with highs in the 90s across the Panhandles. Friday
and Saturday, the ridge begins to move east toward the Panhandles
while the upper-level flow turns northeasterly which, without a
shortwave trough, will be hostile to the potential for
thunderstorms to develop.

Long story short... beyond the around 20% chance for storms in the
west on Wednesday, the rest of the long-term period looks hot and
dry.

Vanden Bosch

&&


.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions are prevailing early this morning at all TAF sites.
As showers and storms move into the Panhandles through the
overnight hours, expect that at least some periods of MVFR
ceilings will occur. Model guidance is a little all over the place
as to if storms will directly affect any TAF sites but there
remains at least some potential for this to occur and have mention
of SHRA or TSRA at all locations. The main timing would be around
07z-15z from north to south. Once storms move through, VFR
conditions should prevail once again.

Culin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                79  60  85  63 /  70  10   0  10
Beaver OK                  81  59  87  61 /  20  10   0   0
Boise City OK              76  56  85  59 /  40  10   0   0
Borger TX                  84  62  90  64 /  50  10   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              79  59  87  62 /  60  10   0  10
Canyon TX                  77  58  84  61 /  70  10   0  10
Clarendon TX               79  61  85  63 /  80  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 77  55  86  58 /  50  10   0  10
Guymon OK                  79  57  86  60 /  30  10   0   0
Hereford TX                79  58  87  62 /  80  20   0  10
Lipscomb TX                81  61  88  63 /  40  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   79  59  85  62 /  50  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                81  61  87  63 /  80  10   0   0
Wellington TX              81  62  88  63 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...28