629
FXUS64 KAMA 201913
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
213 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Real time observations are key this afternoon, in the wake of
morning convection and multiple boundaries. After getting
thoroughly worked over by storms last night into the morning
hours, convective development may be hard to come by this
afternoon, as many hi-res CAMs have come to suggest. However,
visible satellite as of 18z shows a cumulus field developing along
an outflow boundary stretching across the central Texas Panhandle.
This could be a sign of attempts at convection, but as most 12z
models have depicted today, the vast majority of afternoon storms
should stay south of the Panhandles into Lubbock`s CWA, where a
few storms have already popped up. Best lift is currently over the
SE TX Panhandle, where a better cumulus field and instability
also exists. But in general, don`t expect too much to happen this
afternoon except for about a 15-25% chance of a generic
thunderstorm or two.

The better opportunity for any rain will have to wait until later
this evening, when a minor shortwave passes within the upper
level flow. The bulk of activity favors our western stack of
counties due to closer proximity to the disturbance, along with
the better moisture pooled up against the Rockies. 20-30 kts of
bulk shear, DCAPE values potentially over 1500 J/kg, and PWATs
well over an inch would support the potential for storms to reach
severe levels, with damaging wind gusts and flooding from heavy
rain the main risks.

If most of the area misses out today (which is very much a
possibility), then hope returns again tomorrow as a slightly more
prominent shortwave disturbance is slated to approach the region.
One benefit of less precipitation today would be more fuel for
showers & weak storms tomorrow. Overall, models agree that any
instability in place would be on the weak side, so the threat of
strong to severe storms is low at this time. Once again, the
western half of the Panhandles should be favored, as drier air in
the mid levels intrudes southward across the eastern Panhandles.
Moisture could fill back in and improve overnight, maintaining
about a 40-60% probability for activity to persist across more of
the area into Monday morning. After recent rainfall, soils may be
somewhat less receptive to additional downpours, meaning flash
flooding from heavy rain will continue to be a threat.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A pattern change is on the way, but not before another day or two
of northwest flow and precipitation chances. Monday will be
relatively cool for this time of year, with some locations across
the west not making it out of the 70s, while most will be in the
low to mid 80s. This cooler airmass will be due in part to a weak
cold front and lingering precipitation possible across the area.
Tuesday looks warmer in the 80s, and we could see convection off
higher terrain make it to the western Panhandles again. Questions
regarding quality of moisture exist on both days, as drier air
could very well filter in, especially across the easter
Panhandles. Either way, showers and storms will be most likely on
Monday, with decreasing chances through the weak.

The decrease in precipitation will be thanks mostly to high
pressure gradually building back over the Plains. As this occurs,
warming 850mb temperatures, light winds, and sunny skies will help
afternoon highs methodically climb towards the mid to upper 90s
through the week. Diurnally driven convection wouldn`t be
impossible any given day, but appears highly unlikely until at
least next weekend at this time.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Conditions have markedly improved from this morning, but may
decline again later this afternoon-evening due to scattered storm
potential. Confidence in storms has decreased recently, although
highest chances still exist for KDHT. Storms will be possible
near KAMA and KGUY, but there`s limited clarity on a time frame
for this potential, so any mentions have been left out for now.
Otherwise, VFR conditions with north-northeast winds and mid level
clouds will persist through the period.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                67  84  64  81 /  30  20  50  50
Beaver OK                  62  85  61  85 /  10  10  10  10
Boise City OK              60  78  57  80 /  30  60  40  40
Borger TX                  68  88  65  87 /  20  20  40  30
Boys Ranch TX              66  85  63  82 /  30  30  60  50
Canyon TX                  65  85  63  79 /  30  30  50  50
Clarendon TX               66  85  64  80 /  30  20  30  40
Dalhart TX                 61  80  58  81 /  30  50  50  40
Guymon OK                  61  81  58  84 /  20  20  30  20
Hereford TX                65  84  63  81 /  30  40  60  50
Lipscomb TX                65  84  64  85 /  20  10  10  20
Pampa TX                   65  84  62  82 /  20  10  30  40
Shamrock TX                66  85  64  83 /  30  10  20  40
Wellington TX              67  87  65  83 /  40  10  20  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38