Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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667 FXUS64 KAMA 170007 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 707 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 A slowing boundary has moved through most of the Panhandles and is located in the southern TX Panhandle as of 12 PM. There is a west-to- east band of clouds in the southern TX Panhandle but are progressively moving south. Will have to watch how much heating occurs through the afternoon, and where the boundary ends up, as thunderstorms may develop along this boundary if there is enough surface convergence and daytime heating to break through the cap. Gusty winds would be the primary threat given 1500-1700 J/kg of DCAPE. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave trough will help develop thunderstorms in the higher terrain to the west of the Panhandles which will move east into the Panhandles by the early evening. Storm coverage in the northwestern combined Panhandles should be more isolated to scattered in nature, but should grow upscale into an MCS fairly quickly. Moisture is pooled up behind the boundary, and in conjunction with sufficient daytime heating with temperatures well into the 90s, moderate instability is favored with 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and DCAPE values around 1400-1700 J/kg. Effective shear should be around 25-35 kts which should favor MCS maintenance. Therefore, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph is certainly possible in the northern combined Panhandles. If instability is more aggressive (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg), a discrete storm (especially if it can be briefly supercellular) could produce some hail up to half dollar size, but thinking the primary threat will be damaging winds. Finally, PWATs will be above the 90th percentile for this climate, and with this moderate instability and deep warm cloud layer, torrential rainfall is favored with the deep convection, but even the stratiform rain should be decent rain producers as well. Additional shower or thunderstorm development is possible as far south as the I-40 corridor later this evening and through the overnight. Gusty winds will be possible as well as moderate to heavy rain. The primary severe weather threat should leave the area by around 11 PM to 1 AM. Wednesday: Some showers and/or clouds may linger through the morning and perhaps into the early afternoon which suggests daytime heating and atmospheric recovery may struggle. Thunderstorms are favored to develop along the higher terrain in New Mexico once again, but there are certainly complicating factors with regard to the potential for these storms to move into the Panhandles. Some models indicate that some mid-level dry air will move in to at least a portion of the eastern half of the Panhandles which should limit eastward extent for convective potential, but the western Panhandles may be in play depending on where thunderstorms develop in the higher terrain. Therefore, have lowered PoPs in the eastern half of the combined Panhandles. Further west where there should be sufficient destabilization from morning storms, any thunderstorm that moves into the area will have a low-end chance of becoming strong to severe with the primary threat being damaging winds. The potential for large hail is uncertain; mid-level temperatures will be fairly cool for mid-July, but the question is whether there will be enough instability for an updraft to produce large hail. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM ... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 High pressure will strengthen and retrograde slightly to the west of the Four Corners. This will continue to support northwest flow to the area, with ample monsoonal moisture moving across the Panhandle. Several impulses embedded in the northwest flow will help enhance precipitation chances. Overall we continue to have pops in the extended each day, and they will range from 30 to 60 percent. Given the moisture and more prominent cloud cover expected, the highs will be in the 80s to lower 90s for the most part. Right now there`s no specific day focused on a severe threat, given the time of year and pattern, there`s always a chance for some storms to become strong to severe. Most storms this time of year will be wind threats, with hail as more of a secondary concern. Additionally, ample rain rates will support the potential for some hydro concerns, especially if certain areas get multiple rounds of storms. Looking even further, towards the end of the forecast, there are some models suggesting a possible cutoff low that could linger over the Panhandles mid next week and that would keep temperatures even cooler, with more chances of rain and hydro concerns for the tail end of July. Weber && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 659 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 For the 00Z TAFS, showers and thunderstorms are most likely at KGUY, followed by KDHT and then KAMA this evening and tonight. Another round of showers and thunderstorms may develop later Wednesday afternoon. However, confidence is low on timing and coverage of this next round of precipitation so have opted not to mention for this forecast issuance. 02 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 68 91 65 87 / 40 20 60 30 Beaver OK 66 87 63 86 / 80 20 20 10 Boise City OK 62 86 62 85 / 80 60 50 30 Borger TX 70 95 67 92 / 60 20 50 30 Boys Ranch TX 68 93 66 89 / 50 40 70 30 Canyon TX 67 91 65 86 / 30 30 60 30 Clarendon TX 69 91 65 87 / 20 20 50 30 Dalhart TX 63 89 60 86 / 60 50 60 30 Guymon OK 64 87 59 87 / 90 30 40 20 Hereford TX 68 94 65 88 / 20 30 70 30 Lipscomb TX 68 90 65 88 / 70 30 20 10 Pampa TX 67 89 64 87 / 50 30 40 20 Shamrock TX 70 92 65 90 / 20 30 40 20 Wellington TX 71 94 66 91 / 20 20 40 30 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ019-020. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...02