667
FXUS64 KAMA 170007
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
707 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A slowing boundary has moved through most of the Panhandles and is
located in the southern TX Panhandle as of 12 PM. There is a west-to-
east band of clouds in the southern TX Panhandle but are
progressively moving south. Will have to watch how much heating
occurs through the afternoon, and where the boundary ends up, as
thunderstorms may develop along this boundary if there is enough
surface convergence and daytime heating to break through the cap.
Gusty winds would be the primary threat given 1500-1700 J/kg of
DCAPE.

Meanwhile, a weak shortwave trough will help develop thunderstorms
in the higher terrain to the west of the Panhandles which will move
east into the Panhandles by the early evening. Storm coverage in the
northwestern combined Panhandles should be more isolated to
scattered in nature, but should grow upscale into an MCS fairly
quickly. Moisture is pooled up behind the boundary, and in
conjunction with sufficient daytime heating with temperatures well
into the 90s, moderate instability is favored with 1000-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE and DCAPE values around 1400-1700 J/kg. Effective shear
should be around 25-35 kts which should favor MCS maintenance.
Therefore, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph is certainly possible in
the northern combined Panhandles. If instability is more aggressive
(MLCAPE >2000 J/kg), a discrete storm (especially if it can be
briefly supercellular) could produce some hail up to half dollar
size, but thinking the primary threat will be damaging winds.
Finally, PWATs will be above the 90th percentile for this climate,
and with this moderate instability and deep warm cloud layer,
torrential rainfall is favored with the deep convection, but even
the stratiform rain should be decent rain producers as well.
Additional shower or thunderstorm development is possible as far
south as the I-40 corridor later this evening and through the
overnight. Gusty winds will be possible as well as moderate to heavy
rain. The primary severe weather threat should leave the area by
around 11 PM to 1 AM.

Wednesday: Some showers and/or clouds may linger through the morning
and perhaps into the early afternoon which suggests daytime heating
and atmospheric recovery may struggle. Thunderstorms are favored to
develop along the higher terrain in New Mexico once again, but there
are certainly complicating factors with regard to the potential for
these storms to move into the Panhandles. Some models indicate that
some mid-level dry air will move in to at least a portion of the
eastern half of the Panhandles which should limit eastward extent
for convective potential, but the western Panhandles may be in play
depending on where thunderstorms develop in the higher terrain.
Therefore, have lowered PoPs in the eastern half of the combined
Panhandles. Further west where there should be sufficient
destabilization from morning storms, any thunderstorm that moves
into the area will have a low-end chance of becoming strong to
severe with the primary threat being damaging winds. The potential
for large hail is uncertain; mid-level temperatures will be fairly
cool for mid-July, but the question is whether there will be enough
instability for an updraft to produce large hail.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

High pressure will strengthen and retrograde slightly to the west
of the Four Corners. This will continue to support northwest flow
to the area, with ample monsoonal moisture moving across the
Panhandle. Several impulses embedded in the northwest flow will
help enhance precipitation chances. Overall we continue to have
pops in the extended each day, and they will range from 30 to 60
percent. Given the moisture and more prominent cloud cover
expected, the highs will be in the 80s to lower 90s for the most
part. Right now there`s no specific day focused on a severe
threat, given the time of year and pattern, there`s always a
chance for some storms to become strong to severe. Most storms
this time of year will be wind threats, with hail as more of a
secondary concern. Additionally, ample rain rates will support the
potential for some hydro concerns, especially if certain areas get
multiple rounds of storms. Looking even further, towards the end
of the forecast, there are some models suggesting a possible
cutoff low that could linger over the Panhandles mid next week and
that would keep temperatures even cooler, with more chances of
rain and hydro concerns for the tail end of July.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

For the 00Z TAFS, showers and thunderstorms are most likely at
KGUY, followed by KDHT and then KAMA this evening and tonight.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms may develop later
Wednesday afternoon. However, confidence is low on timing and
coverage of this next round of precipitation so have opted not
to mention for this forecast issuance.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                68  91  65  87 /  40  20  60  30
Beaver OK                  66  87  63  86 /  80  20  20  10
Boise City OK              62  86  62  85 /  80  60  50  30
Borger TX                  70  95  67  92 /  60  20  50  30
Boys Ranch TX              68  93  66  89 /  50  40  70  30
Canyon TX                  67  91  65  86 /  30  30  60  30
Clarendon TX               69  91  65  87 /  20  20  50  30
Dalhart TX                 63  89  60  86 /  60  50  60  30
Guymon OK                  64  87  59  87 /  90  30  40  20
Hereford TX                68  94  65  88 /  20  30  70  30
Lipscomb TX                68  90  65  88 /  70  30  20  10
Pampa TX                   67  89  64  87 /  50  30  40  20
Shamrock TX                70  92  65  90 /  20  30  40  20
Wellington TX              71  94  66  91 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ019-020.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...02