Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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961 FXUS64 KAMA 171057 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 557 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A cold front has passes through the panhandles earlier this morning shifting the winds to the north and bringing cooler air to the panhandles. This morning is still seeing some light rain showers as moisture and instability from the front still linger over the region. This activity has a high chance of decreasing and ceasing through the morning hours. However the moisture and instability will still be present under the trough across the southern plains. So once daytime heating occurs further rain showers and thunderstorms have a high chance of developing. These would form mainly over the higher terrain in NM and CO before detaching and moving into the panhandles. This would make the western to central portions of the panhandles more likely to see rain showers and thunderstorms with the eastern panhandles having a lesser chance. There will be a small chance that a few of the storms could become strong to severe with winds being the main threat. Overall moisture values remain on the higher side as well which coupled with slow storm motions will allow for at least a small chance of flooding. The chance for severe weather and flooding will mimic the overall rain shower and thunder chance with better odds in the west and lesser odds in the east. The timing for these rain showers and thunderstorms in the panhandles will be more towards the later afternoon and evening hours. This due to the time it will take for the storms to form then drift to the panhandles. Some of the rain showers and thunderstorms could then persist through to the morning hours similar to this morning. Thursday should in large should see a similar scenario play out with another round of afternoon and evening rain showers. Overall moisture and instability look to be lower than today so the activity will more likely than not be less extensive and weaker compare to today. With the cooler air already streaming into the panhandles and with active weather that should bring cloudier skies temperatures will be cooler today compared to the scorching days we just had. Highs will fall into the 80s and 90s for both today and Thursday. SH && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 An active weather pattern remains in full swing through the entire extended period. Upper level ridging continues in the southwest CONUS, while northwest flow prolongs over our region, and monsoonal moisture stays in effect. Several fronts are currently forecast to progress through our CWA during this time. This will allow for additional thunderstorm chances each day and consistent below average high temperatures. Friday, highs are progged to be the warmest out of the extended. Widespread 90`s and some upper 80`s are expected due to a small lull in the activity during the day. Overnight, a shortwave trough may enter the High Plains. This coupled with the low level jet in place should allow for organized, perhaps widespread, thunderstorm activity into Saturday. Thunderstorms are not expected to be severe at this time. Saturday onward, NBM values and long range models suggest that thunderstorm production may occur each day, but confidence on further widespread precipitation or MCS systems is low at this time. Instead, a scattered to isolated thunderstorm regime is proposed. Chances for severe thunderstorms this far out in time are low due to fluctuating mesoscale parameters. However, it still cannot be entirely ruled out, as gusty winds and heavy rain are fully within the realm of possibility due to the seasonal environmental parameters we have as constants for mid July. 80`s and lower 90`s are forecast to be achieved for highs through the weekend. By Monday, the upper level trough becomes elongated through the Central Plains and heights decrease from northeast to southwest. This should allow for highs to decrease even further thanks to continuous northeasterly surface winds and increased chances for thunderstorms. Highs may range between the upper 70`s and 80`s on Monday. 80 degree temperatures and rain chances are anticipated to prolong through mid next week. Rangel && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 554 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Fair weather and VFR conditions persist across the panhandles this morning at all terminals. The afternoon to evening hours rain showers and thunderstorms will redevelop and impact the panhandles. The most likely areas to be impacted is the western and northern panhandles with all TAF sites having at least a small chance of being directly impacted. The odds of rain showers and thunderstorms on station is highest at KDHT and lower for KAMA and KGUY. Even if the stations are directly hit conditions should remain VFR with possible dip down to MVFR. A few strong to severe storms will be possible with the main threat being strong outflow winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 91 67 87 65 / 30 40 30 20 Beaver OK 86 64 86 64 / 20 20 10 10 Boise City OK 85 62 85 62 / 50 50 30 20 Borger TX 94 68 93 67 / 30 40 20 20 Boys Ranch TX 93 67 89 65 / 40 50 30 30 Canyon TX 91 66 86 63 / 30 50 30 20 Clarendon TX 91 66 88 66 / 20 40 20 10 Dalhart TX 88 62 86 61 / 40 50 30 20 Guymon OK 86 63 87 62 / 30 30 20 20 Hereford TX 94 65 87 64 / 30 60 30 20 Lipscomb TX 88 66 88 65 / 10 20 10 10 Pampa TX 88 65 87 64 / 30 30 20 20 Shamrock TX 91 66 90 65 / 20 20 20 10 Wellington TX 93 67 91 66 / 20 20 20 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...98