Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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804 FXUS64 KAMA 111936 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 236 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Today, isolated thunderstorms are likely in various locations across the CWA. Diurnal heating is the main driver behind the thunderstorm activity, and CAMs have consistently shown that storms will generate in the High Plains. However, the inconsistencies lie in where exactly storms will form. Current, (as of 1 PM), convection has started in the northwest. As mixed layer CIN erodes throughout the afternoon, thunderstorms should expand east and south. Overall, the environment is lacking is favorable instability, shear, and moisture quality for strong storms, but enough is present for pulse type development. This activity should continue until sunset when we lose day time heating. Tomorrow, more of the upper level high builds overhead and a stable atmosphere should allow for a break in precipitation activity. Highs are proving to be hotter than originally forecast due to increased warm air advection. More areas may see the triple digits today, but no area in particular should become hot enough to meet criteria for heat products. The southeast Texas Panhandle currently has the best chance to exceed 100 degrees this afternoon. Tomorrow, 850 mb temperatures indicate that WAA will continue across the Panhandles. Short term guidance allows for more 100 degree temperatures to build into the area, and they favor our eastern zones at this time. No heat related products are active for the moment, but we will be watching the Palo Duro Canyon closely since there is still a slight chance (20-30%) that the canyon floor may reach 105 degrees. All concerns will be for temperature values, as dewpoints are no longer high enough for the heat index to surpass the actual temperature. Rangel && .LONG TERM ... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 The upper level trough continues it`s advancement eastward this weekend into next week. Simultaneously, the ridge moves in and settles over our region for a time. Models have struggled to move the high over us for the past few day, and former tropical cyclone Beryl helped maintain the jet stream trough further south than originally anticipated. That said, guidance is in agreement that this pattern will have changed by the start of the long term period. Even so, another pattern shift may occur by mid next week. Long term guidance is alluding to the center of the upper high transitioning back west. This would open up more opportunities for troughs to move in, and put us back into northwesterly flow. Temperatures for the coming days should be above average with 90`s and 100`s possible until Wednesday. By Wednesday, guidance suggests that a cold front may move across the CWA and cool down day time temperatures back into the 80`s for the remainder of the extended. Confidence on this outcome is still uncertain, but with the models showing some consistency between runs, it`s an outcome that is within the realm of possibility. Thunderstorms also have a chance to return to the Panhandles by Tuesday night due to the potential pattern change already mentioned above. At this time, chances range from 25-49% in the latter periods of the extended. NBM values were reviewed and only some minor adjustments were made. Palo Duro Canyon temperatures may become a concern for next week, so we will watch them closely. NBM PoPs are reflective of the current shifts in the overall pattern the long range models are making, so no major changes were implemented. Rangel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 TAFs remain VFR for this new 18Z period. Thunderstorm chances this afternoon are not high enough to warrant mentions at any site at this time. Of course, if any storm can develop near a terminal amendments would be needed. However, our confidence in this occurring is still low. Mostly light winds are forecast for this afternoon. Tomorrow, breezy west-southwesterly winds should manifest by the morning hours at all TAF sites. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 69 98 69 97 / 10 0 0 0 Beaver OK 67 102 73 100 / 10 0 0 0 Boise City OK 66 98 68 97 / 10 0 0 0 Borger TX 70 104 73 102 / 10 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 68 100 69 100 / 10 0 0 0 Canyon TX 66 96 68 96 / 10 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 68 98 69 96 / 10 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 64 97 65 98 / 10 0 0 0 Guymon OK 66 101 69 100 / 10 0 0 0 Hereford TX 66 97 67 98 / 10 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 69 102 73 100 / 10 0 0 0 Pampa TX 69 98 69 97 / 10 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 67 99 69 98 / 10 0 0 0 Wellington TX 68 101 70 99 / 10 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...55