175
FXUS64 KAMA 120537
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Today, isolated thunderstorms are likely in various locations
across the CWA. Diurnal heating is the main driver behind the
thunderstorm activity, and CAMs have consistently shown that
storms will generate in the High Plains. However, the
inconsistencies lie in where exactly storms will form. Current,
(as of 1 PM), convection has started in the northwest. As mixed
layer CIN erodes throughout the afternoon, thunderstorms should
expand east and south. Overall, the environment is lacking is
favorable instability, shear, and moisture quality for strong
storms, but enough is present for pulse type development. This
activity should continue until sunset when we lose day time
heating. Tomorrow, more of the upper level high builds overhead
and a stable atmosphere should allow for a break in precipitation
activity.

Highs are proving to be hotter than originally forecast due to
increased warm air advection. More areas may see the triple
digits today, but no area in particular should become hot enough
to meet criteria for heat products. The southeast Texas Panhandle
currently has the best chance to exceed 100 degrees this
afternoon. Tomorrow, 850 mb temperatures indicate that WAA will
continue across the Panhandles. Short term guidance allows for
more 100 degree temperatures to build into the area, and they
favor our eastern zones at this time. No heat related products are
active for the moment, but we will be watching the Palo Duro
Canyon closely since there is still a slight chance (20-30%) that
the canyon floor may reach 105 degrees. All concerns will be for
temperature values, as dewpoints are no longer high enough for the
heat index to surpass the actual temperature.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The upper level trough continues it`s advancement eastward this
weekend into next week. Simultaneously, the ridge moves in and
settles over our region for a time. Models have struggled to move
the high over us for the past few day, and former tropical cyclone
Beryl helped maintain the jet stream trough further south than
originally anticipated. That said, guidance is in agreement that
this pattern will have changed by the start of the long term
period. Even so, another pattern shift may occur by mid next week.
Long term guidance is alluding to the center of the upper high
transitioning back west. This would open up more opportunities
for troughs to move in, and put us back into northwesterly flow.

Temperatures for the coming days should be above average with 90`s
and 100`s possible until Wednesday. By Wednesday, guidance
suggests that a cold front may move across the CWA and cool down
day time temperatures back into the 80`s for the remainder of the
extended. Confidence on this outcome is still uncertain, but with
the models showing some consistency between runs, it`s an outcome
that is within the realm of possibility. Thunderstorms also have
a chance to return to the Panhandles by Tuesday night due to the
potential pattern change already mentioned above. At this time,
chances range from 25-49% in the latter periods of the extended.
NBM values were reviewed and only some minor adjustments were
made. Palo Duro Canyon temperatures may become a concern for next
week, so we will watch them closely. NBM PoPs are reflective of
the current shifts in the overall pattern the long range models
are making, so no major changes were implemented.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions are in store at all sites throughout the period.
Can`t rule out about a 10% chance of a stray shower or storm today
near any site, but confidence is extremely low. Otherwise expect
winds out of the south-southwest at 10-25 kts.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                98  69  97  69 /  10   0   0   0
Beaver OK                 102  73 100  71 /  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              98  68  97  66 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                 104  73 102  72 /  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX             100  69 100  68 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  96  68  96  67 /  10   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               98  69  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 97  65  98  65 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                 101  69 100  67 /  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                97  67  98  67 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX               102  73 100  70 /  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   98  69  97  69 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                99  69  98  70 /  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX             101  70  99  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...38