058
FXUS64 KAMA 131701
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1201 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

It`s understandable if you`re experiencing deja vu with the
forecast, because it`s just going to be another hot and breezy
July day. Moisture remains relatively scarce compared to this time
last week, as high pressure aloft is dominant. The only real prayer
of precipitation today would be across the northern Panhandles
this evening, where mountain convection has about a 10% chance to
survive the trip south from Colorado/Kansas. Temperatures today
likely won`t be quite as bad as yesterday, but are still slated to
be in the upper 90s to 104 range. Tomorrow will be even drier and
a couple degrees hotter, with winds slightly diminishing out of
the south. Not terribly worried about any heat advisories being
needed on Sunday, but won`t rule out some locations such as the
canyon approaching 105 degrees. Even the central to eastern
Oklahoma Panhandle has about a 30-60% probability to reach 105
based on hi- resolution model guidance. Either way, it`ll be a hot
one!

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Same old same old to start the work week on Monday: it`ll be hot.
The upper level high pressure system seated to our west won`t lose
its grip on the region quite yet, allowing heat to stick around. On
top of that, the northwest Panhandles will once again be targeted
for a low chance (10-20%) of weak afternoon-evening
showers/storms. Heat will remain at the forefront of the forecast
though, with highs nudging slightly higher than Sunday. 100 degree
temperatures or higher could exist across the entire Panhandles,
with a 20-40% probability for scattered locations (including Palo
Duro Canyon) topping out around 105 degrees.

Our tune changes come mid to late week when the upper high
gradually breaks down and northwest flow returns. By Tue-Wed,
moisture content goes up, and a cold front will move into the
area. Extra sources of lift should help initiate daily shower and
storm chances through Friday, depending on how much moisture can
survive behind the cold front. Model guidance has been flip-
flopping somewhat on the extent of rain chances, but ensemble
support appears to be in favor of the pattern change. Either way,
the front will provide a respectable cool down for this time of
year, dropping highs down to the 80s and low 90s.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. Breezy
winds are ongoing at KGUY and KDHT with winds around 20 kts
gusting to 30 kts which will last through this afternoon before
weakening to around 10 kts tonight.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                69  99  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  71 103  70 103 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              67 101  66 100 /  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                  71 105  72 106 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              69 102  69 103 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  67  98  67  99 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               69  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 66 100  64 101 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  68 103  67 103 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                67 100  67 101 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                71 102  71 103 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   69  98  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                69  99  71 101 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              71 101  72 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...52