Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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805 FXUS64 KAMA 131931 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 231 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Not much excitement to be excited about in the short-term. A strong upper-level ridge is centered over the central Rockies leading to the promise of hot temperatures. There is a roughly 5% chance for a shower or thunderstorm to move into the Oklahoma Panhandle from Colorado and/or Kansas this evening, but all signs indicate this activity would be in the process of weakening. Sunday features even less chance for rain and slightly hotter temperatures with most of the Panhandles at or above 100 degrees. Some locations may reach or slightly exceed 105 degrees... heat advisory criteria... specifically in portions of the northeastern combined Panhandles and along the Canadian River Valley. Palo Duro Canyon should stay around 101-103 degrees today and tomorrow due to an unfavorable wind speed and orientation for heat enhancement. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Monday looks like another hot day with widespread 100 degree temperatures. Again, some locations may reach 105 degrees in the northeastern combined Panhandles and along the Canadian River Valley. Monday night and through Tuesday, Models indicate that the upper- level ridge may attempt to retrograde as a seasonably robust upper- level trough dips from central Canada into the Great Lakes. This would introduce northwesterly flow aloft for much of the Panhandles. Tuesday: Models agree that a cold front is forecast to move into at least the northern portion of the CWA Tuesday morning, but that is where the agreement ends regarding this feature. GFS and ECMWF stall out the front throughout Tuesday before surging through the rest of the CWA Tuesday evening. Meanwhile, NAM doesn`t stall the front and brings it through almost all of the Panhandles by the mid-afternoon. The difference between the models may be related to the convection that the NAM has Monday night across Kansas, but the GFS and ECMWF don`t have; any outflow from these storms may give the front extra `momentum`. Nonetheless, behind the front will be richer low-level moisture with dew points in the upper-50s to low-60s. Tuesday evening and through the night: The GFS and NAM suggest a shortwave embedded in the flow could help develop thunderstorms on the Rockies in northern New Mexico and Colorado late Tuesday afternoon. The thunderstorms that are closer to the stronger forcing (i.e., Colorado) could grow upscale into an MCS and, depending on its track, could clip at least the northeastern combined Panhandles. Meanwhile some of the thunderstorms off the higher terrain in southern Colorado/northern New Mexico could wander into the Panhandles from the west and northwest. If the GFS and NAM are correct with the placement of the shortwave trough, strong to severe thunderstorms are a possibility given the favorable low-level moisture, mid-level lapse rates, and wind profile. However, it`s too early to get into details beyond that. Wednesday: The upper-level ridge continues to retrograde with the flow over the Panhandles remaining northwesterly or turning more north-northwesterly. The latter would not be the most ideal for having thunderstorms move off the high terrain, but is still plausible. The better bet would be any convection that can develop in eastern Colorado/western Kansas in association with an embedded shortwave trough. The most favored time for thunderstorms would be Wednesday night. Confidence decreases in the large-scale pattern decreases further Thursday and beyond. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. Breezy winds are ongoing at KGUY and KDHT with winds around 20 kts gusting to 30 kts which will last through this afternoon before weakening to around 10 kts tonight. Vanden Bosch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 70 100 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 72 104 70 104 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 68 102 66 101 / 10 0 0 0 Borger TX 72 106 72 106 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 69 103 70 104 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 68 98 67 99 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 70 98 71 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 66 101 65 103 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 69 103 67 104 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 67 99 67 101 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 71 103 72 103 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 70 100 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 70 100 71 101 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 71 101 73 103 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...52