Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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918 FXUS64 KAMA 150809 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 309 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A roasting July day is at the plate across the Lone Star state, thanks to continued high pressure aloft. Right off the bat, it`s safe to say today will be the hottest day of the year so far for most of the Panhandles. Record highs are teed up to be knocked out of the park at all climate sites, especially Borger where a forecast high of 109 would fly past the previous record of 105. Regardless of where you find yourself this afternoon, it`ll be no walk in the park, with triple digit heat expected throughout the forecast area. For this reason, a heat advisory is in effect for most of the combined Panhandles, including Palo Duro Canyon, where high temperatures may exceed 105 degrees. So don`t get yourself caught in a pickle, be sure to hydrate and take extra heat safety precautions if outside this afternoon! If you don`t have to get out, it`s not a bad day to be a homer and stay inside. On top of the heat, we can`t rule out a pop up shower or storm coming into play across the northern Panhandles this afternoon and evening. Any storm would be on the weak side, with gusty winds, lightning, and brief downpours possible. Taking a hack at tomorrow`s forecast, heat sticks around with highs in the 90s on deck for the northern Panhandles behind a stalling boundary, and triple digits slated to its south. Thanks to upper ridging retrograding, increased moisture and a minor shortwave disturbance will be sent down with the boundary. This should help generate isolated convection Tuesday afternoon, becoming more widespread as a storm complex slides off the higher terrain into the northern Panhandles by Tuesday evening-night. The atmosphere looks to notably more juiced tomorrow (forecast MLCAPE and DCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg), so stronger to severe storms could throw us a curveball with hail and damaging wind gust potential. PWAT values will load up through the day as well (locally over 1.50"), so isolated areas of very heavy rainfall will be in the hole for Tuesday night. Harrel && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A pattern shift will occur mid week with the high pressure weakening and shifting to be over the four corner region. As this occurs the trough that is present over the Great Lakes region will deepen and push into the southern plains. This pattern will push an unseasonable cold front across the southern plains on Wednesday. This front will bring much cooler conditions with temperatures falling 10 to 15 degrees that will leave highs in the 80s to 90s. This is unseasonably cool for summer and could be a welcome reprieve from the hot temperatures that are currently impacting the panhandles. The front will also bring in a considerable amount of moisture. This would see PWATs in the 1 in to 1.5 in range which is in the top 10% of moisture events for this time of year. This moisture coupled with unstable conditions from the trough and cold front will cause rain showers and thunderstorms across the entire panhandles through the whole day. While the environment doesn`t look the most favorable for organized convection as the shear is on the lower side a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out. The high amounts of moisture is causing some flooding concern as storm motion will likely be slow. Thursday and Friday should still see the trough and some associated moisture linger across the souther plains. This moisture and generally unstable conditions should lead to daily rain showers and thunderstorms for the panhandles. Temperatures for these days should see a slight warming trend but still remain on the cooler side with highs in the 80s to 90s. The weekend looks favorable to see a increase in wet conditions as the trough send another cold front with a surge of colder and moister air to the southern plains. There is already signs that the PWATs will exceed 1.5 in which would make it this moisture very abnormally high. However it is very uncertain how much moisture will actually materialize so confidence in such high values is very low. Regardless the increase in moisture and instability will lead to further rain showers and thunderstorms for the entire panhandles. Temperatures should fall to the coolest of the week with highs mainly in the 80s with a few spots sticking only to the 70s being possible. SH && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated throughout the period at all sites. Can`t rule out a few showers and storms near KDHT and KGUY after 00z, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Winds will be out of the south-southwest at 10-20kts until a boundary and mid level cloud ceiling slides through from the northwest near the end of the period. Harrel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 103 74 100 69 / 0 10 20 40 Beaver OK 107 73 97 66 / 10 10 10 50 Boise City OK 103 68 96 63 / 10 20 30 70 Borger TX 109 76 105 71 / 0 10 20 40 Boys Ranch TX 106 73 102 68 / 0 10 20 50 Canyon TX 102 71 99 68 / 0 10 20 30 Clarendon TX 102 74 101 71 / 0 0 10 20 Dalhart TX 104 68 98 64 / 0 10 20 50 Guymon OK 106 70 97 64 / 10 20 20 60 Hereford TX 104 70 101 68 / 0 0 10 30 Lipscomb TX 107 75 99 68 / 0 10 20 40 Pampa TX 103 73 100 68 / 0 10 20 40 Shamrock TX 104 73 103 71 / 0 0 10 20 Wellington TX 105 73 104 72 / 0 0 10 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ002>015-018>020-317. OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...98