Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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675 FXUS64 KAMA 151647 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1147 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A roasting July day is at the plate across the Lone Star state, thanks to continued high pressure aloft. Right off the bat, it`s safe to say today will be the hottest day of the year so far for most of the Panhandles. Record highs are teed up to be knocked out of the park at all climate sites, especially Borger where a forecast high of 109 would fly past the previous record of 105. Regardless of where you find yourself this afternoon, it`ll be no walk in the park, with triple digit heat expected throughout the forecast area. For this reason, a heat advisory is in effect for most of the combined Panhandles, including Palo Duro Canyon, where high temperatures may exceed 105 degrees. So don`t get yourself caught in a pickle, be sure to hydrate and take extra heat safety precautions if outside this afternoon! If you don`t have to get out, it`s not a bad day to be a homer and stay inside. On top of the heat, we can`t rule out a pop up shower or storm coming into play across the northern Panhandles this afternoon and evening. Any storm would be on the weak side, with gusty winds, lightning, and brief downpours possible. Taking a hack at tomorrow`s forecast, heat sticks around with highs in the 90s on deck for the northern Panhandles behind a stalling boundary, and triple digits slated to its south. Thanks to upper ridging retrograding, increased moisture and a minor shortwave disturbance will be sent down with the boundary. This should help generate isolated convection Tuesday afternoon, becoming more widespread as a storm complex slides off the higher terrain into the northern Panhandles by Tuesday evening-night. The atmosphere looks to notably more juiced tomorrow (forecast MLCAPE and DCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg), so stronger to severe storms could throw us a curveball with hail and damaging wind gust potential. PWAT values will load up through the day as well (locally over 1.50"), so isolated areas of very heavy rainfall will be in the hole for Tuesday night. Harrel && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A pattern shift will occur mid week with the high pressure weakening and shifting to be over the four corner region. As this occurs the trough that is present over the Great Lakes region will deepen and push into the southern plains. This pattern will push an unseasonable cold front across the southern plains on Wednesday. This front will bring much cooler conditions with temperatures falling 10 to 15 degrees that will leave highs in the 80s to 90s. This is unseasonably cool for summer and could be a welcome reprieve from the hot temperatures that are currently impacting the panhandles. The front will also bring in a considerable amount of moisture. This would see PWATs in the 1 in to 1.5 in range which is in the top 10% of moisture events for this time of year. This moisture coupled with unstable conditions from the trough and cold front will cause rain showers and thunderstorms across the entire panhandles through the whole day. While the environment doesn`t look the most favorable for organized convection as the shear is on the lower side a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out. The high amounts of moisture is causing some flooding concern as storm motion will likely be slow. Thursday and Friday should still see the trough and some associated moisture linger across the souther plains. This moisture and generally unstable conditions should lead to daily rain showers and thunderstorms for the panhandles. Temperatures for these days should see a slight warming trend but still remain on the cooler side with highs in the 80s to 90s. The weekend looks favorable to see a increase in wet conditions as the trough send another cold front with a surge of colder and moister air to the southern plains. There is already signs that the PWATs will exceed 1.5 in which would make it this moisture very abnormally high. However it is very uncertain how much moisture will actually materialize so confidence in such high values is very low. Regardless the increase in moisture and instability will lead to further rain showers and thunderstorms for the entire panhandles. Temperatures should fall to the coolest of the week with highs mainly in the 80s with a few spots sticking only to the 70s being possible. SH && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period with winds generally less than 15 kts throughout. A cold front is forecast to move through KGUY and KDHT tonight that will change winds to northwesterly, but winds are expected to be 10 kts or less at that time. There is a low chance (15%) for a shower or thunderstorm this evening, but confidence is too low to make mention at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 74 100 69 89 / 10 20 40 40 Beaver OK 73 97 66 83 / 10 10 50 30 Boise City OK 68 96 63 83 / 20 30 70 50 Borger TX 76 105 71 91 / 10 20 40 40 Boys Ranch TX 73 102 68 91 / 10 20 50 40 Canyon TX 71 99 68 89 / 10 10 30 40 Clarendon TX 74 101 71 90 / 0 10 20 40 Dalhart TX 68 98 64 86 / 10 20 50 50 Guymon OK 70 97 64 84 / 20 20 60 40 Hereford TX 70 101 68 92 / 0 10 30 40 Lipscomb TX 75 99 68 85 / 10 20 40 40 Pampa TX 73 100 68 87 / 10 20 40 40 Shamrock TX 73 103 71 91 / 0 20 20 40 Wellington TX 73 104 72 94 / 0 10 10 40 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ002>015-018>020- 317. OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...52