574
FXUS64 KAMA 160843
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
343 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

08z radar and surface analysis shows an outflow boundary
advancing towards the I-40 corridor this morning, helping to
initiate spotty showers over the eastern to central Texas
Panhandle. Another boundary/weak front is still on track to drop
south this morning from KS, likely stalling over the central to
southern Texas Panhandle. Any additional development from these
boundaries through the morning hours is expected to remain rather
weak and inconsequential. Despite weak north winds in their wake,
high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will exist for our
northern counties, with 100-105 degree highs sticking around
across central to southern zones. So for anyone who may have
appreciated yesterday`s sweltering temperatures, enjoy the heat
today while it`s still around.

Our attention promptly shifts to storm chances later this
afternoon and evening, possibly lingering through Wednesday. As
the aforementioned boundary stalls and daytime heating occurs,
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will build up this afternoon along and north
of this lifting mechanism. Capping concerns prevent higher
confidence in scattered afternoon convection popping up, but
can`t rule out a 10-15% chance for some spotty thunderstorms in
the area as early as 3-4 PM. The main event should hold off till
this evening, when a minor perturbation rounds the crest of a
degrading upper level high. A complex of storms should develop on
the higher terrain, moving east-southeast across the northern
Panhandles. When it arrives, conditions look to be favorable for
strong to severe storms capable of locally heavy rainfall (PWATs >
1.50"), damaging wind gusts (DCAPE ~1000-1500 J/kg), and perhaps
some large hail (20-30kt 0-6km shear). Additional showers and
storms may propagate south and eastward through the Panhandles
tonight along any gust front(s) this complex will probably put
out.

In general, the main takeaways for tonight are that northern
areas have roughly a 20-50% probability to receive localized areas
of 1 to 3 inches of rain, up to quarter size hail, and 60-70 mph
wind gusts. Areas to the south will generally receive lighter
rainfall, a much lower hail threat, and gusty winds closer to
40-50 mph with any stronger storm/outflow.

Some activity may linger into Wednesday morning, but models
suggest the area will be mostly worked over until later in the
day. Northeast winds and cloud cover will suppress the heat we`ve
been having lately, limiting afternoon highs to the 80s and low
90s. Afternoon and evening storms will be possible again when
another shortwave works its way around the upper ridge. Models are
still quite split however, regarding the eastward extent of
convection, with better lift possibly staying over New Mexico, and
mid-level dry air potentially filtering in from the northeast.
With that in mind, the most favored area for showers and storms
still looks to be the far west-southwestern Panhandles. Some hi-
res models indicate the forecast area could miss out altogether,
while the 03z RAP suggested convection could spread to cover much
of the CWA. All this to say we`ll have to wait and see about
precipitation chances, but the start of some much welcomed cooler
temperatures appears to be something we can count on.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The pattern for the mid to end of the week and into early next
week still favors a high pressure system centered over the desert
SW and a trough that stretches from the Great Lakes to the
southern plains. This setup will induce a broadly N to NW flow
across the southern plains which will allow for multiple short
waves to pass across. These shortwaves will bring moisture across
the panhandles which will lead to rain showers and thunderstorms
every day in the panhandles. The overall activity looks to be
lower for Thursday and Friday as while there will be rain showers
and thunderstorms the moisture and instability will be on the
lower side. This will change come late on Friday when the most
potent trough pushes into the southern plains bringing an
associated cold front across the panhandles. This will cause an
increase in the amount of rain showers and thunderstorms as
moisture and instability increase. This front has a chance to
stall in the panhandles which will keep the elevated amounts of
rain showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Sunday and Monday
the front and trough seems to push further out of the panhandles
laving the panhandles under just the broad scale trough again.
This will still cause rain showers and thunderstorms but at
decreased rates. The winds and associated storm motions through
the rest of the weak into next week are favorable to be weak. This
could be important as the moisture values could be abnormally
high at times which will allow some of the rain showers and
thunderstorms to produce copious amounts of rain. If they would be
able to linger over an area for a long time then flooding could
be a problem. However the confidence in such an event are low at
this time as there would need to be alignment of moisture,
instability, and slow storm motion which is hard to exactly pin
down this far out in the forecast. The passage of the multiple
troughs will push rounds of cooler air across the panhandles
keeping conditions typically cooler than average. This should see
the panhandles remain in the mainly in the 80s for each day with
the exception of Friday which will be near average in the lower
90s.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Mid-level cloud decks are spreading across the northern Panhandles
tonight behind a southward advancing outflow boundary. Another
boundary/front will settle over the Panhandles later this
morning-afternoon, likely along or just north of the I-40
corridor. During the afternoon hours, scattered pop up showers and
storms will certainly be possible near all terminals, but
confidence in any placement and timing of this activity is too low
to include in the TAFs at this time. Higher confidence exists
later in the evening closer to 00z and beyond when a complex of
storms enters the northern Panhandles, likely impacting KGUY and
KDHT, with a chance to make it as far south as KAMA. Winds will be
changing directions periodically due to the multiple boundaries
and storms in play. Stronger wind gusts of 40+ kts will be
possible with any stronger storms today.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX               101  69  89  65 /  20  40  40  50
Beaver OK                  97  65  85  61 /  10  70  20  20
Boise City OK              97  63  84  60 /  50  70  50  50
Borger TX                 106  70  93  66 /  20  60  40  50
Boys Ranch TX             103  68  91  65 /  20  50  40  60
Canyon TX                 100  68  89  62 /  20  30  40  60
Clarendon TX              101  70  89  64 /  20  30  30  40
Dalhart TX                100  64  87  61 /  20  60  50  50
Guymon OK                  97  64  85  61 /  20  80  30  30
Hereford TX               101  68  92  63 /  20  30  40  60
Lipscomb TX               100  68  88  64 /  20  60  30  30
Pampa TX                  100  68  87  62 /  20  50  40  40
Shamrock TX               103  70  91  64 /  20  30  40  30
Wellington TX             105  72  93  66 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ019-020.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...38