542
FXUS61 KALY 061700
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
100 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms to the region today, though coverage will be greatest
this morning. The aforementioned boundary will track east through
the region throughout the day, exiting by tomorrow morning to force
the return to tranquil weather through the beginning of the work
week. Despite the cold frontal passage, hot, humid weather is
anticipated through the weekend and into the beginning of the week.
An upper-level disturbance and frontal system will then approach the
region Tuesday, increasing the chance for additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*A Heat Advisory remains in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 8
 PM this evening for Eastern Greene, Eastern Ulster, Western
 Columbia, and Western Dutchess Counties.

*A Heat Advisory remains in effect for Eastern Albany, Eastern
 Columbia, Eastern Dutchess, and Western Rensselaer Counties to
 go into effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM this evening.

.UPDATE...The environment is becoming more conducive for widely
scattered convection to develop. Radar indicating a small
cluster of storms have developing on the north end of Lake
George, while the rest of the area is dry. However, satellite
imagery reveals areas of agitated cumulus clouds across the
higher terrain of the Adirondacks, Helderbergs and Catskills.
These ares are where storms are mostly likely to initiate, then
migrate into the valley later this afternoon into early evening.
SPC Mesoanalysis showing 1000-1500 J/Kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of
effective shear. Environment favorable for some storms to become
organized/severe with damaging winds the main threat. Coverage
still expected to be widely scattered due to weak/subtle
forcing. Temperatures continue to rise through the 80s with
humid conditions (dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s).

.PREV DISCUSSION[1019]...Batch of widespread showers and storms
has ended this morning, with rain-free but warm/humid
conditions expected to persist through the rest of the morning.
Main change with this update was to add mention of gusty winds
within thunderstorms this afternoon, as the Storm Prediction
Center has upgraded our entire area to a Marginal Risk (level 1
of 5) for the potential of isolated severe storms. The
environment will become more conducive for a few isolated
clusters of organized storms with sufficient buoyancy/shear
balance. With warm/moist profile, isolated downdrafts will be
the main threat, with locally heavy rain also expected. Coverage
of storms is anticipated to be widely scattered due to
subtle/weak forcing from a surface front tracking east across
the area and an upper level short wave approaching from the
Great Lakes. Will continue to monitor trends for this afternoon.

Outside of convective activity, today will be another warm,
muggy day. High temperatures look to reach the upper 70s to low
80s at higher elevations with mid/upper 80s in large valley
areas. Additionally, dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s to
low/mid 70s especially within the Capital District and Mid-
Hudson Valley. As such, maximum apparent temperatures will reach
95-100 degrees in these areas and the previous Heat Advisory was
therefore expanded.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned cold front looks to continue its eastward
track through the region throughout the evening and into tonight
with shower and thunderstorm activity tapering off swiftly upon
the loss of daytime heating. Low temperatures overnight will
fall to the upper 50s to low 60s in higher terrain regions to
the mid/upper 60s elsewhere. Unfortunately, there will not be a
break in muggy conditions overnight with dewpoints remaining in
the upper 50s to 60s across the area.

The rest of the weekend into the beginning of next work week
will see the return to more tranquil conditions as surface high
pressure and ridging aloft slide in from the west. However, hot,
humid conditions will continue. While Sunday will feel "cooler"
than today and Monday in most places, high temperatures in the
upper 70s/low 80s at higher elevations and mid/upper 80s in
large valley areas paired with dewpoints in the low to upper 60s
will make for maximum apparent temperatures in the mid/upper 80s
to low 90s. Monday will then see an increase in anticipated
highs with low 80s to low 90s expected across the area.
Dewpoints in the 60s to possibly the low 70s will make for
apparent temperatures in the upper 80s to low and possibly mid
90s. Should confidence increase in the coverage and duration of
near or advisory criteria being met in the next day or so, Heat
Advisories may be necessary. Low temperatures Sunday night will
be similar to tonight with upper 50s to 60s while Monday night`s
lows will range from the 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended forecast period begins unsettled with a positively-
tilted mid and upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes
Region, southeast Canada and the Midwest.  A cold front and a pre-
frontal disturbance will likely increase showers and thunderstorms
during the day based the ensemble and deterministic guidance.  It
will be hot and humid ahead of the cold front with sfc dewpoints in
the 60s to lower 70s and temps in the upper 80s to around 90F in the
valleys and upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mtns.  Heat
indices may reach in the mid/upper 90s from the Capital District
south down the mid Hudson River Valley.  Some heat headline may be
needed.  Some locally heavy downpours will also be possible with any
thunderstorms with above normal PWATs in place.  The initial cold
front reaches New England by Wednesday morning with showers and
isolated thunderstorms with lows in the 60s with some upper 50s over
the southern Dacks.

A secondary cold front moves across the region mid week with
isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.  Temps will
be more seasonable for July.  Max temps will be in the upper 60s to
mid/upper 70s over the mtns...and upper 70s to lower 80s with a few
mid 80s over the mid Hudson Valley for highs. Humidity levels may
briefly lower late Wed/Wed night with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s
and decreasing showers.

Thu-Fri...the forecast is uncertain with low confidence based on the
placement of the cold front and some ridging that may build in from
the north and west briefly, as well as the location of the remnant
circulation and moisture associated with TC Beryl.  We stuck with
the NBM with low chances of showers and possibly isolated
thunderstorm Thu. Humidity levels creep up Thu.  A frontal boundary
may be close enough to Long Island/southern New England for isolated
to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to persist Thu night
into Fri.  Temps continue to run or slightly above normal as we head
towards mid July.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mixture of MVFR/IFR conditions continue this morning at
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF with showers and embedded thunderstorms that
will persist until 12Z-15Z SAT. MVFR/low VFR cigs will continue
until 15Z-18Z/SAT especially at KALB/KALB/KPSF in the wake of the
prefrontal disturbance.  Expect high MVFR/low VFR conditions to
return by the early to mid afternoon.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible with the cold
front in the mid pm into the early evening.  PROB30 groups were used
to time the thunderstorms with MVFR cigs/vsbys in the 21Z-24Z time
frame for KGFL/KPOU...and 21Z to 01Z/Sun for KALB/KPSF.  Later TAF
issuance can further refine the window.  Expect a return to high
MVFR or VFR cigs in the wake of the front after 00Z/SUN.  Some
patchy mist may develop at KGFL/KPSF after midnight.

The winds will be south/southeast at 5-10 KT in the late morning
into the afternoon.  The winds will shift to west to southwest in
shortly before or just after 00Z/SUN. They will become light to calm
after midnight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated, especially this
morning, throughout eastern New York and western New England.
High PWATs exceeding 2" in many places and high freezing levels
will lead to the potential for locally heavy downpours with
convective activity. Local poor drainage/urban flooding is
possible as a result, especially in areas that have training
storms.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ052-053-061-
     066.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ059-060-064-
     065.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant/JPV
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
HYDROLOGY...KL