759
FXUS61 KALY 092003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
403 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front moves north of the region tonight into Wednesday,
as the moisture from post tropical storm Beryl impacts into the
region with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms into
Thursday morning with some locally heavy rainfall. Warm and
humid weather continues into Friday with additional showers and
thunderstorms with the frontal boundary stalled near the New
England Coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
**Heat Advisory for the Hudson Valley, including the Capital
 Region, the Mohawk Valley and Litchfield County through 8 PM
 Tuesday**

Isolated thunderstorms in southern VT and the Berkshires moving
east and there is a bit of a low level moisture boundary in the
Capital Region seen in the surface dew point analysis and radar,
that could be the focus for some additional isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity through this evening. Other isolated
showers and storms possible in areas of terrain.

Some mid and high clouds well ahead of the remnants of Beryl and
the diffuse warm front drifting north through our region, that
will affect our region tonight. So, the mix of clouds and any
convective debris, along with increasing deep moisture should
result in lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**Heat Advisory for the mid Hudson Valley 8 PM Wednesday for the
 mid Hudson Valley and southern Taconics**

**Flood Watch for Flash Flooding issued from noon Wednesday
 through noon Thursday for the southern Adirondacks through
 northern Lake George area**

Increasing consensus from sources of guidance/ensembles for the
enhanced low level convergence along the warm front, increasing
boundary layer winds and a distinct wind shift, building north
through the day Wednesday. Very anomalously high PWAT values
within the airmass south of the warm front will provide the
moisture that contributes to a zone of heavy rain and embedded
thunderstorms, that shifts north into the southern Adirondacks
and northern Lake George area, eventually building north of the
area by late Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The strengthening southwest boundary layer flow south of the
warm front, within the tropical airmass, could support some
training convective elements but also the deep shear could
support some damaging wind gusts and maybe an isolated tornado
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Outside of the convection,
some intervals of sun will help temperatures to reach well into
the 80s with around 80 higher terrain. Heat indices in the mid
Hudson Valley will be in the mid to upper 90s.

There are mixed signals in sources of guidance in terms of a
line or band of convection along the leading edge of some
boundary layer drying and cooling as the remnants of Beryl and
associated upper dynamics track north of the U.S./Canada border
Wednesday night. There is still a potential threat for severe
weather and localized flooding until this boundary tracks east
and through our region by daybreak or just after daybreak
Thursday. Included some localized scattered showers and storms
Thursday but coverage should be less, and some sunshine outside
of any convection, possible breezy winds, should help
temperatures reach well into the 80s to near 90, and around 80
in higher terrain.

More scattered shower and thunderstorm activity Friday but
intervals of sunshine should help temperatures reach the mid
80s, with upper 70s to near 80 higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mean broad upper troughing over our region with embedded small
upper impulses resulting in some disagreement in the timing and
track of any systems that would support scattered showers and
storms. So, indicating isolated to scattered thunderstorms each
day, with Sunday having the best chances for being dry.

A more organized, stronger upper system and associated cold
front is possible in the Tuesday time frame next week. Highs in
the 80s to lower 90s Saturday through Tuesday and cooler in
higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions expected to persist into the
overnight period at all terminals. Diurnal cu at 3-6 kft will
increase through the afternoon beneath patchy thin ci aloft.
Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm will develop this
afternoon, however confidence in timing and location of any
convective cell is too low to include any TEMPOs for restricted
vsbys at any site, however brief MVFR/IFR conditions with gusty
winds are possible during any heavier convective cell, and are most
likely to occur at PSF/POU. Shower activity will subsequently
diminish following the loss of daytime heating, by 00Z Wed.

After 00Z Wed and overnight, VFR conditions will return beneath
steadily increasing cloud cover ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary. Given enhanced low-level moisture, patchy fog/mist are
possible after 08-09Z Wed, most likely in typical sheltered
locations as well as wherever showers occur this afternoon. Any
fog/mist will dissipate shortly after sunrise, by 12Z Wed. Light
rain will begin to arrive north to south through the morning,
reaching GFL/ALB/PSF by 15Z Wed and POU toward the end of the
period. Rain may be moderate to heavy at times, with MVFR cigs/vsbys
expected and IFR values possible.

Southwest winds at 8-12 kt gusting to 15-20 kt this evening will
give way to calm or light and variable flow overnight. Winds
increase again out of the south to southeast after 12-15Z Wed.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A warm front and the remnant moisture from TC Beryl late
tonight through Thursday morning will bring potential areas of
heavy rainfall to eastern NY and western New England. The
Weather Prediction Center has highlighted much of our region in
a threat for excessive rainfall in the Marginal to Slight Risk
categories Wed and Thu, and moderate risk for the southern
Adirondacks and northern Lake George Region. Confidence in the
timing, coverage and amounts of any potential heavy rainfall is
still uncertain.

A flood watch for flash flooding has bee issued for the southern
Adirondacks and northern Lake George Region. Some river
flooding may be possible as well, but the latest MMEFS and NERFC
guidance shows no flooding.

Highest probabilities for one to three inches of rainfall Wed
through Thu continue to be from the Mohawk Valley and I-90
corridor northward in the ALY HSA, but this axis of potential
heavy rain could shift still further over the next day or so.
Stay tuned for further updates.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>041-043-
     049-050-052-053-083-084.
     Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning
     for NYZ032-033-042-043-082-083.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ059-060-064>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Picard
HYDROLOGY...NAS/Wasula