995
FXUS61 KALY 100535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
135 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front moves north of the region tonight into Wednesday,
as the moisture from post tropical storm Beryl impacts into the
region with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms into
Thursday morning with some locally heavy rainfall. Warm and
humid weather continues into Friday with additional showers and
thunderstorms with the frontal boundary stalled near the New
England Coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.Update...As of 1:35 AM EDT...Earlier showers and storms across
Litchfield County have dissipated, with just a few light showers
now located across the ADKs and upper Hudson Valley. Therefore,
main change with this update was to cut back on PoPs with most
of the area currently dry. Still expecting rain chances to
increase late tonight and early tomorrow morning, especially
west of I-87, as the warm front begins to lift north. Otherwise,
just minor adjustments to other grids as previous forecast is in
good shape regarding temp/dew point/sky cover trends. Will also
mention some patchy fog possible in the typical sheltered areas
tonight, although with increasing mid and high clouds any fog
should be pretty isolated.

.Previous...Some mid and high clouds well ahead of the remnants
of Beryl and the diffuse warm front drifting north through our
region, that will affect our region tonight. So, the mix of
clouds and any convective debris, along with increasing deep
moisture should result in lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**Heat Advisory until 8 PM Wednesday for the mid Hudson Valley
 and southern Taconics**

**Flood Watch for Flash Flooding issued from noon Wednesday
 through noon Thursday for the southern Adirondacks through
 northern Lake George area**

Increasing consensus from sources of guidance/ensembles for the
enhanced low level convergence along the warm front, increasing
boundary layer winds and a distinct wind shift, building north
through the day Wednesday. Very anomalously high PWAT values
within the airmass south of the warm front will provide the
moisture that contributes to a zone of heavy rain and embedded
thunderstorms, that shifts north into the southern Adirondacks
and northern Lake George area, eventually building north of the
area by late Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The strengthening southwest boundary layer flow south of the
warm front, within the tropical airmass, could support some
training convective elements but also the deep shear could
support some damaging wind gusts and maybe an isolated tornado
late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Outside of the convection,
some intervals of sun will help temperatures to reach well into
the 80s with around 80 higher terrain. Heat indices in the mid
Hudson Valley will be in the mid to upper 90s.

There are mixed signals in sources of guidance in terms of a
line or band of convection along the leading edge of some
boundary layer drying and cooling as the remnants of Beryl and
associated upper dynamics track north of the U.S./Canada border
Wednesday night. There is still a potential threat for severe
weather and localized flooding until this boundary tracks east
and through our region by daybreak or just after daybreak
Thursday. Included some localized scattered showers and storms
Thursday but coverage should be less, and some sunshine outside
of any convection, possible breezy winds, should help
temperatures reach well into the 80s to near 90, and around 80
in higher terrain.

More scattered shower and thunderstorm activity Friday but
intervals of sunshine should help temperatures reach the mid
80s, with upper 70s to near 80 higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mean broad upper troughing over our region with embedded small
upper impulses resulting in some disagreement in the timing and
track of any systems that would support scattered showers and
storms. So, indicating isolated to scattered thunderstorms each
day, with Sunday having the best chances for being dry.

A more organized, stronger upper system and associated cold
front is possible in the Tuesday time frame next week. Highs in
the 80s to lower 90s Saturday through Tuesday and cooler in
higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IR satellite imagery and surface obs show widespread mid level
clouds are in place over the region.  Based on upstream satellite
imagery and model soundings, will expect these clouds to continue to
be in place over the region through the rest of the overnight hours.
Despite high dewpoints and calm winds, will not forecast any
radiational fog through the rest of the overnight due to the
cloud cover in place and will keep flying conditions VFR for all
sites sites with bkn-ovc cigs around 15 kft and calm winds with
no precip.

A warm front will be lifting across the region during the day on
Wednesday.  KPOU/KPSF will quickly get in the warm sector, so
there`s little threat for any precip there through most of the day,
as the boundary should be north of that area.  Meanwhile, KGFL has
the best chance for seeing some showers and possible t-storms,
mainly between 15z and 20z. Any t-storm could contain gusty winds
and will include a PROB30 there for IFR conditions within a
thunderstorm and gusty winds over 30 kts.   KALB may be okay as most
of the activity will be north and west of there, but will mention a
VCSH during the afternoon in case a shower or t-storm gets close.
Outside of any convection, it will be VFR with south to southeast
winds of 5 to 10 kts and sct-bkn cigs around 4-6 kft and another
layer around 12-15 kft.

Another round of convection is expected with the storm`s cold front
during the evening hours.  This will again have the highest coverage
near KGFL, although a stray shower or t-storm could get also get
further south by the late evening.  Most of the time, flying
conditions will be VFR, but cannot rule out brief IFR conditions
within any shower or t-storm, which may also contain gusty winds.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A warm front and the remnant moisture from TC Beryl late
tonight through Thursday morning will bring potential areas of
heavy rainfall to eastern NY and western New England. The
Weather Prediction Center has highlighted much of our region in
a threat for excessive rainfall in the Marginal to Slight Risk
categories Wed and Thu, and moderate risk for the southern
Adirondacks and northern Lake George Region. Confidence in the
timing, coverage and amounts of any potential heavy rainfall is
still uncertain.

A flood watch for flash flooding has bee issued for the southern
Adirondacks and northern Lake George Region. Some river
flooding may be possible as well, but the latest MMEFS and NERFC
guidance shows no flooding.

Highest probabilities for one to three inches of rainfall Wed
through Thu continue to be from the Mohawk Valley and I-90
corridor northward in the ALY HSA, but this axis of potential
heavy rain could shift still further over the next day or so.
Stay tuned for further updates.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through Thursday morning for
     NYZ032-033-042-043-082-083.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ059-060-
     064>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/Main/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...NAS/Wasula