382
FXUS61 KALY 110250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1050 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will taper off tonight with the severe
weather threat ending. Chances of showers and storms will
persist into early next week, along with above normal
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1045 PM EDT, showers and thunderstorms ahead of an
approaching cold front continue to slowly push eastward across
the region, now approaching the Hudson Valley. The loss of
daytime heating and instability is causing this activity to
weaken and therefore the severe weather threat is decreasing as
well. As a result, the Tornado Watch will likely be allowed to
expire at the top of the hour for the remaining counties. Still,
some locally heavy downpours and gusty winds will possible with
any thunderstorm into the overnight hours.

Drier weather returns toward daybreak with just some lingering
showers east of the Hudson River ahead of the cold front and
across the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley from the approach of an
upper- level trough. Lows will fall back in the mid-60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday & Thursday Night...

The remnants of Beryl will track across northern New England
into Quebec to start the period, with the mid and upper level
low & trough following close behind. CVA rotating around the low
will keep pockets of lift in place across the region, ensuring
shower and storm chances persist to close out the work week.
Areas mainly along and north of Interstate 90 are most favored
for POPs (20-40%) as they will be nearer to the low track,
though there will be slight chances across the mid Hudson Valley
near the aforementioned cold front as it stalls across near the
coast. However, it should be a dry & warm day for most as
afternoon highs climb back into 70s (terrain) and 80s (valleys).
Peak heat indices will not be far behind thanks to lower
humidity values.

Friday & Friday Night...

Two shortwaves remain on track to approach the region, one from the
central Great Lakes and the other along the Mid-Atlantic. These
features, combined with the stalled frontal boundary near the coast,
will promote diurnally driven showers and storms mainly across the
mid Hudson Valley and southwest New England. Elsewhere, it will be a
dry and warm end to the work week with highs ranging from the 70s
(terrain) to mid 80s (valleys).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The shortwave that will be approaching from the Great Lakes is
forecast to track across the region Saturday, and may promote
additional shower and storm chances during the afternoon and
evening. Guidance is not in great agreement of placement due to
differences in the speed and strength of the shortwave, so favoring
to use the NBM with this forecast package. This places higher
favorability of storm chances mainly across the mid Hudson Valley
and southwest New England. Elsewhere, conditions will be warm and
dry.

A hot and dry is favored for to close out the weekend with afternoon
highs climbing into the 80s (terrain) to low 90s (valleys).
Dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 will promote heat indices in
the mid 90s, so will need to watch this period for potential heat
headlines.

Additional shortwaves riding in the zonal flow remain on track to
impact the area early next week, which will bring showers and storms
back into the forecast. Each day will feature above normal temps
with valley highs well into the 80s to low 90s. With dewpoints in
the upper 60s to near 70, heat index values will be in the 90s each
day.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Bands of showers/thunderstorms to the west of the TAF sites
should approach KGFL/KALB between 02Z-04Z/Thu, and possibly
reaching KPSF and KPOU between 04Z-06Z/Thu. A few periods of
heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible.

The showers/thunderstorms should taper off from west to east
after 08Z/Thu. However, areas of MVFR Vsbys and MVFR/IFR Cigs
may then develop and persist through around 13Z-15Z/Thu.
Conditions should improve to VFR thereafter and continue
through Thursday afternoon.

South to southeast winds 8-15 KT with some gusts of 25-30 KT
this evening will decrease to 5-10 KT toward and after midnight.
South to southwest 5-10 KT Thursday morning will become
southwest to west at similar speeds Thursday afternoon, with a
few gusts up to 20-25 KT possible.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The heaviest rain has ended with the southern Adirondacks
receiving the most rain with amounts between 1 to 3 inches and a
localized band of 3 to 6 inches across areas north of Route 28.
Localized flash flooding was observed across the southern
Adirondacks. While some locally heavy rainfall is possible with
any remaining thunderstorms overnight, the flood threat will
continue to decrease.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NYZ032-033-038>040-
     042-043-082-083.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun/Speck
NEAR TERM...KL/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...KL/NAS
HYDROLOGY...Rathbun