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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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150 FXUS61 KALY 120745 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 345 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Morning clouds will break for partial sunshine today with another warm afternoon. Abundant moisture surging northward will allow for some showers and thunderstorms, mainly across southern areas, for this evening through tomorrow afternoon. Some of the showers and thunderstorms may contain heavy downpours, which could lead to localized flooding. Drier weather will return for Sunday, but it will remain hot and muggy. More warm and humid weather, along with some additional showers and thunderstorms are expected through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 345 AM EDT...Our region is under the influence of south to southwest flow aloft. A slow moving upper level disturbance is located over the Great Lakes, while a strong ridge is located offshore the eastern seaboard over the central Atlantic Ocean. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary stretches from north to south across along the I-95 corridor from New England southward into the mid Atlantic States. A weak area of low pressure is also offshore the Carolina coast. The combination of all of these features is allowing for a mild and moist flow of air out of the south. IR satellite imagery continues to show fairly widespread stratus and stratocu over much of the area this morning, as moisture trapped beneath an inversion has been keeping plenty of clouds around. There are some breaks for southern and eastern areas, but most areas will be starting the day mostly cloudy or overcast. With daytime heating getting underway, some of these clouds will be able to dissipate, allowing for most locations to become partly sunny by the mid morning hours. With enough sun expected today, temps will once again be above normal. Most valley areas will reach the mid to upper 80s (upper 70s to low 80s in the high terrain) for highs. Dewpoints will continue to creep up once again, with values in valley areas into the low 70s by late in the day once again. While it be uncomfortably warm once again, heat index values look to fall too short to necessitate the need for a Heat Advisory for today. While it should be rain-free for most of the day, there will be an increasing threat for southern areas for the late afternoon or early evening hours to see a brief shower or thunderstorm. However, the bigger chance will arrive later this evening into tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The stalled boundary will remain over the southeastern parts of the region for this evening into tonight. Meanwhile, abundant moisture will continue to stream northward and PWATs will be reaching back to close to 2.00 inches overnight, especially for southern areas. CAMs suggest some heavy showers and thunderstorms will be pushing northward into the area for tonight, with the boundary being a focus for convection and forcing being aided by a weak disturbance moving up from the mid Atlantic states. 00z SPC HREF suggest the potential for locally heavy rainfall, especially across the mid Hudson Valley, Taconics, NW CT and southern Berkshires. While all the CAMs seem to have different ideas regarding the exact placement, coverage and amounts, there seems to be the potential for some flooding downpours where convection occurs. Have gone with a Flood Watch for the potential for flash flooding for eastern Ulster, Dutchess, Litchfield and southern Berkshire Counties for tonight through early Sat afternoon. Some areas could locally see a quick 1 to 3 inches of rainfall from repeated showers and thunderstorms, with urban and poor drainage areas being at the most risk for localized flash flooding. Showers and thunderstorms look most likely across southeastern areas, but some rainfall could reach as far north as the Capital and Saratoga Regions and into southern VT as well, but the highest potential for flooding looks to be southern areas. It will remain mild and muggy overnight with lows in the 60s to low 70s. Showers and thunderstorms will start trending eastward on Saturday morning and by afternoon, the focus of the heavier activity should be east of the region across central and eastern New England. WHile the day will start off partly to mostly cloudy thanks to the convection across eastern areas, there will be more and more sun by late in the day. Highs will once again be well into the 80s in valley areas, with heat index values close (but probably just shy) to heat advisory criteria. Weak high pressure will build into the area for Sat night into Sunday as the stalled boundary weakens and starts to slide eastward. With the muggy air mass in place, some patchy fog may develop on Sat night, especially for locations that saw rain on Saturday. Otherwise, it will be rain-free with a partly to mostly clear sky and lows in the 60s to low 70s. On Sunday, high pressure should allow for no precip with plenty of sun. Temps aloft remain warm (+16 to +19 C), so highs will once again be above normal and rather hot, with upper 80s to low 90s in valley areas. With dewpoints still rather high, heat index values may reach heat advisory criteria once again. Without any strong forcing around and enough subsidence from the weak high pressure area, there shouldn`t be any threat for convection on Sunday. Most of Sunday night looks dry, although far northwestern areas could see a shower or t-storm may late in the overnight. Otherwise, it will be quiet into Sunday night with a partly cloudy sky and continued mild and muggy conditions with lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Long term period starts out hot and humid with chances for showers and thunderstorms, but a cold front should bring a return to cooler temperatures by the end of next week... For Monday and Tuesday...Our region will be in a zonal flow regime aloft atop a broad upper ridge located over the southern CONUS. Low- level flow will be west to southwesterly, which will advect a very warm airmass into the region. With 850 mb temperatures expected to reach +18 to +21C, highs will likely top out in the low to mid 90s for many valley areas, especially from the Capital District southwards. Dew points will remain elevated with upper 60s to low 70s, so there is a good chance that heat advisory criteria will be reached Monday and Tuesday. This means there will be little overnight relief with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s both nights. There will also be chances for showers and thunderstorms both days as a couple different shortwave disturbances track through the mean zonal flow aloft. If the passage of these upper disturbances aligns with peak daytime heating, which it looks like is certainly possible, then we could have some strong to severe storms, especially on Tuesday when shear is better as westerly winds strengthen aloft. Heavy rain would also be possible with any thunderstorms with PWATs increasing to 1.6-1.8" which is near 90th percentile for mid July based on the SPC sounding climatology. Wednesday and Thursday...The flow pattern amplifies as an upper trough digs into the Great Lakes region. This will help to drive a strong cold front through the region during the middle to end of the week, but the timing of the frontal passage is highly uncertain this far out. If the front comes through during peak daytime heating Wednesday, then it could be another active weather day as forcing looks to be on the stronger side ans shear increases ahead of the upper trough. However, a frontal passage Wednesday morning or Wednesday night would limit the amount of instability and thus the coverage and intensity of any storms. If the cold front is on the slower side, then Wednesday would also be another hot and humid day. Regardless, much cooler and drier air looks to filter into the region for the end of the long term period with things drying out as high pressure builds in from the west. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06z Saturday...Currently seeing VFR conditions at all TAF sites as of 1:25 AM EDT. Expecting cigs to remain MVFR through the next few hours, although cigs may lower to MVFR at GFL/PSF and possibly ALB for a few hours around/shortly after sunrise. Have handled this with tempo groups. If any breaks in the low stratus occur then some patchy fog would be possible, but probability for this happening looks low based on current satellite trends so will not mention in the TAFs. This morning, cigs return to VFR levels with SCT to BKN mid clouds and increasing high clouds through the day. An upper disturbance moving up the east coast will bring chances for showers and possible a few thunderstorms to POU/PSF/ALB this afternoon into tonight. Have pushed back start time of showers in the TAFs based on current trends in guidance. Showers should be more isolated tomorrow afternoon, increasing in coverage and intensity tomorrow evening especially for the last few hours of the TAF period. Showers do not look to make it as far north as GFL, but ALB/POU/PSF could see MVFR cigs and vsbys with any showers. Winds will generally be light and variable through the rest of the night before increasing to around 5 kt from the southwest by early to mid-morning. Winds switch more to the south this afternoon and evening, still at around 5 kt. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon for CTZ001-013. NY...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon for NYZ064>066. MA...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon for MAZ025. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Main AVIATION...Main