071
FXUS61 KALY 121452
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1052 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Morning clouds will break for partial sunshine today
with another warm afternoon.  Abundant moisture surging northward
will allow for some showers and thunderstorms, mainly across
southern areas, for this evening through tomorrow afternoon. Some of
the showers and thunderstorms may contain heavy downpours, which
could lead to localized flooding.  Drier weather will return for
Sunday, but it will remain hot and muggy.  More warm and humid
weather, along with some additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...Skies remain partly to mostly cloudy across eastern
New York and western New England this morning with a stationary
boundary draped from northeast to southwest across portions of
southwest New England and the lower Mid-Hudson Valley down into
the Mid-Atlantic. A mid/upper-level shortwave rests across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions while an area of low
pressure exists along the Southeast Coast. Some light showers
have approached the southern extent of our CWA border so fat
this morning but have quickly fallen apart before quite crossing
into the Mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield County. Temperatures
have reached the low to upper 70s with pockets of upper 60s at
higher elevations and near 80 in the lower Mid-Hudson Valley.
With relatively tranquil conditions persisting from the previous
update, few changes to the forecast were needed other than minor
adjustments to temperatures and sky cover to keep consistency
with latest obs and trends. Additional details on today`s
forecast can be found in the previous discussion below.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
As of 645 AM EDT...Our region is under the influence of south
to southwest flow aloft. A slow moving upper level disturbance
is located over the Great Lakes, while a strong ridge is located
offshore the eastern seaboard over the central Atlantic Ocean.
At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary stretches from north
to south along the I-95 corridor from New England southward into
the mid Atlantic States. A weak area of low pressure is also
offshore the Carolina coast. The combination of all of these
features is allowing for a mild and moist flow of air out of the
south.

IR satellite imagery continues to show fairly widespread
stratus and stratocu over much of the area this morning, as
moisture trapped beneath an inversion has been keeping plenty of
clouds around. There are some breaks for southern and eastern
areas, but most areas will be starting the day mostly cloudy or
overcast. With daytime heating getting underway, some of these
clouds will be able to dissipate, allowing for most locations to
become partly sunny by the mid morning hours.

With enough sun expected today, temps will once again be above
normal. Most valley areas will reach the mid to upper 80s (upper
70s to low 80s in the high terrain) for highs. Dewpoints will
continue to creep up once again, with values in valley areas
into the low 70s by late in the day once again. While it be
uncomfortably warm once again, heat index values look to fall
too short to necessitate the need for a Heat Advisory for today.

While it should be rain-free for most of the day, there will be
an increasing threat for southern areas for the late afternoon
or early evening hours to see a brief shower or thunderstorm.
However, the bigger chance will arrive later this evening into
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The stalled boundary will remain over the southeastern parts of
the region for this evening into tonight. Meanwhile, abundant
moisture will continue to stream northward and PWATs will be
reaching back to close to 2.00 inches overnight, especially for
southern areas. CAMs suggest some heavy showers and
thunderstorms will be pushing northward into the area for
tonight, with the boundary being a focus for convection and
forcing being aided by a weak disturbance moving up from the
mid Atlantic states. 00z SPC HREF suggest the potential for
locally heavy rainfall, especially across the mid Hudson Valley,
Taconics, NW CT and southern Berkshires. While all the CAMs seem
to have different ideas regarding the exact placement, coverage
and amounts, there seems to be the potential for some flooding
downpours where convection occurs. Have gone with a Flood Watch
for the potential for flash flooding for eastern Ulster,
Dutchess, Litchfield and southern Berkshire Counties for tonight
through early Sat afternoon. Some areas could locally see a
quick 1 to 3 inches of rainfall from repeated showers and
thunderstorms, with urban and poor drainage areas being at the
most risk for localized flash flooding. Showers and
thunderstorms look most likely across southeastern areas, but
some rainfall could reach as far north as the Capital and
Saratoga Regions and into southern VT as well, but the highest
potential for flooding looks to be southern areas. It will
remain mild and muggy overnight with lows in the 60s to low 70s.

Showers and thunderstorms will start trending eastward on
Saturday morning and by afternoon, the focus of the heavier
activity should be east of the region across central and eastern New
England. WHile the day will start off partly to mostly cloudy
thanks to the convection across eastern areas, there will be
more and more sun by late in the day. Highs will once again be
well into the 80s in valley areas, with heat index values close
(but probably just shy) to heat advisory criteria.

Weak high pressure will build into the area for Sat night into
Sunday as the stalled boundary weakens and starts to slide
eastward. With the muggy air mass in place, some patchy fog may
develop on Sat night, especially for locations that saw rain on
Saturday. Otherwise, it will be rain-free with a partly to
mostly clear sky and lows in the 60s to low 70s.

On Sunday, high pressure should allow for no precip with plenty
of sun. Temps aloft remain warm (+16 to +19 C), so highs will
once again be above normal and rather hot, with upper 80s to low
90s in valley areas. With dewpoints still rather high, heat
index values may reach heat advisory criteria once again.
Without any strong forcing around and enough subsidence from the
weak high pressure area, there shouldn`t be any threat for
convection on Sunday.

Most of Sunday night looks dry, although far northwestern areas
could see a shower or t-storm may late in the overnight.
Otherwise, it will be quiet into Sunday night with a partly
cloudy sky and continued mild and muggy conditions with lows in
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Long term period starts out hot and humid with chances for showers
and thunderstorms, but a cold front should bring a return to cooler
temperatures by the end of next week...

For Monday and Tuesday...Our region will be in a zonal flow regime
aloft atop a broad upper ridge located over the southern CONUS. Low-
level flow will be west to southwesterly, which will advect a very
warm airmass into the region. With 850 mb temperatures expected to
reach +18 to +21C, highs will likely top out in the low to mid 90s
for many valley areas, especially from the Capital District
southwards. Dew points will remain elevated with upper 60s to low
70s, so there is a good chance that heat advisory criteria will be
reached Monday and Tuesday. This means there will be little
overnight relief with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s both nights.
There will also be chances for showers and thunderstorms both days
as a couple different shortwave disturbances track through the mean
zonal flow aloft. If the passage of these upper disturbances aligns
with peak daytime heating, which it looks like is certainly
possible, then we could have some strong to severe storms,
especially on Tuesday when shear is better as westerly winds
strengthen aloft. Heavy rain would also be possible with any
thunderstorms with PWATs increasing to 1.6-1.8" which is near 90th
percentile for mid July based on the SPC sounding climatology.

Wednesday and Thursday...The flow pattern amplifies as an upper
trough digs into the Great Lakes region. This will help to drive a
strong cold front through the region during the middle to end of the
week, but the timing of the frontal passage is highly uncertain this
far out. If the front comes through during peak daytime heating
Wednesday, then it could be another active weather day as forcing
looks to be on the stronger side ans shear increases ahead of the
upper trough. However, a frontal passage Wednesday morning or
Wednesday night would limit the amount of instability and thus the
coverage and intensity of any storms. If the cold front is on the
slower side, then Wednesday would also be another hot and humid day.
Regardless, much cooler and drier air looks to filter into the
region for the end of the long term period with things drying out as
high pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12z Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions this morning with BKN
to OVC skies with cigs around 4000 ft, although as of 6:40 AM EDT
PSF remains MVFR. MVFR cigs at PSF should lift by mid-morning, so
will include a tempo until then. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions
prevail through the morning with BKN to SCT mid-level clouds.

Mid-level clouds fill back in this afternoon and especially this
evening as a disturbance moving up the east coast allows showers to
spread northwards into our region. Will mention VCSH groups at
ALB/PSF/POU this afternoon and early this evening as shower activity
should be relatively scattered. Showers increase in coverage and
intensity after dark, but exact timing and coverage of showers
remains somewhat uncertain. Since any showers could result in MVFR
vsbys, will include prob30 groups early this evening to bring in the
steadier/more numerous showers. Coverage of showers will be greatest
after around 06z, and some moderate to at times locally heavy rain
will be possible. Best chance will be at ALB/POU/PSF, but even GFL
could see some showers late tonight. WIll use a prob30 group there
with prevailing groups for showers and MVFR vsbys/cigs at other
terminals, although PSF could see IFR cigs and vsbys (due to mist
and low stratus in addition to the showers) the second half of
tonight.

Winds will be light from the southwest this morning, increasing to
around 5 kt by late morning/early afternoon. By mid-afternoon, winds
increase to 5-10 kt and turn to the south, but become light and
variable again after sunset tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Saturday
     afternoon for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Saturday
     afternoon for NYZ064>066.
MA...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Saturday
     afternoon for MAZ025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Gant
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Main