899
FXUS61 KALY 122039
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
439 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal disturbance will drift northward along the
East Coast through tomorrow, supplying ample moisture to support
some showers and thunderstorms mainly in southern portions of the
region this evening into tomorrow afternoon. Locally heavy downpours
embedded within these showers and storms will pose the threat of
localized flooding. Dry weather returns briefly for Sunday before
unsettled conditions are expected for much of next week. Warm, humid
conditions are anticipated to persist into the beginning of next
week with confidence increasing in heat indices potentially reaching
dangerous levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Conditions have thus far remained dry throughout eastern New
York and western New England this afternoon with any showers
that have approached our southern boundary having fallen apart
before making it too far north into the Mid-Hudson Valley and
Litchfield County. Visible satellite clearly shows a southerly
moisture fetch spanning much of the East Coast squeezed between
a large anticyclone over the central Atlantic and a shortwave
trough extending south from the Great Lakes into the Ohio
Valley. As a result, clouds continue to stream into the region
from the south especially along a stationary boundary draped
from southwest to northeast from the Mid-Atlantic into the Mid-
Hudson Valley and southwest New England. Some of these clouds,
however, are breaking up in the attempt to overspread the region
with breaks of sun acting in tandem with affects of nearby
subsidence from the outer reaches of the high acting to burn
them off.

Throughout the night tonight, moisture will continue to surge
northward with an area of low pressure currently situated along
the Southeast Coast beginning to track northward. Showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm or two will develop along and ahead of
the surface boundary, primarily within the Mid-Hudson Valley and
southwest New England. With PWATs increasing to exceed 2" in
these areas, some locally heavy downpours are anticipated with
these showers and embedded thunderstorms which could lead to
localized urban and poor drainage flooding. Additionally, some
showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible
within the Capital District, Upper-Hudson Valley, and southern
Vermont with the eastward shift of the mid/upper shortwave.
Higher PWATs in these areas (1.5" to 2") will also allow for
the possibility of localized downpours.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the low to mid 60s
above 1000 ft with upper 60s to low 70s in valley areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Moisture will continue to stream into the region tomorrow
morning as the aforementioned coastal disturbance progresses
farther northward. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be
possible especially within the Mid-Hudson Valley, Northwest
Connecticut and southwest Massachusetts as the stationary
boundary remains in place. With moisture remaining elevated,
locally heavy downpours will continue to be possible with any
shower or thunderstorm that tracks through these areas tomorrow
into tomorrow afternoon. This could lead to localized flooding
especially in urban and poor drainage areas through tomorrow
afternoon especially for Litchfield, southern Berkshire,
Dutchess and eastern Ulster Counties where a Flood Watch remains
in effect until tomorrow afternoon. It is important to note,
however, that latest guidance has decreased the QPF from
previous expectation. While localized amounts of 1" to 2" remain
likely within the areas within the Flood Watch, generally
anywhere from 0.25" to about 0.75" throughout the forecast area
is expected through tomorrow. This is likely due to the
combination of the eastward track of the mid/upper-level
shortwave and the southwest flow about the high offshore acting
to divert the axis of moisture farther east away from the
region.

Showers and any thunderstorms that develop tomorrow will taper
off with the loss of daytime heating tomorrow evening, yielding
dry conditions beginning tomorrow night into Sunday as high
pressure builds in from the west. High temperatures tomorrow
will range from the upper 70s to low 80s at higher elevations
to mid/upper 80s in large valley areas. Lows tomorrow night will
span the upper 50s above 1500 ft to 60s elsewhere. Sunday will
be warm with highs primarily in the 80s with pockets of upper
70s at higher terrain regions and pockets of low 90s in the
Hudson Valley. However, with dewpoints generally looking to
remain within the 60s, heat indices do not look to meet or
exceed Heat Advisory criteria. Lows Sunday night will then fall
to the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A generally unsettled pattern ensues for the long term forecast
period with a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday
through Wednesday. Additionally, hot, humid conditions are
anticipated Monday and Tuesday which seem increasingly likely to
meet Heat Advisory criteria.

Heat Monday and Tuesday- Confidence continues to increase in the
likelihood of dangerous heat and humidity for the beginning of
next week. High temperatures on Monday look to reach the low to
mid 80s at higher elevations and upper 80s to low 90s (possibly
even pockets of mid 90s in the Mid-Hudson Valley). Dew points
progged to reach the upper 60s to low/mid 70s will make for heat
indices in the mid/upper 90s with pockets of low 100s in large
valley areas. Tuesday`s highs, though similar, will fair a few
degrees warmer especially in the Mid-Hudson Valley where pockets
of upper 90s are possible. Tuesday`s dewpoints will also span
the upper 60s to low/mid 70s, allowing maximum apparent
temperatures to reach the upper 90s to low 100s (pockets of 105
possible within the lower Mid-Hudson Valley). While these heat
indices certainly meet Heat Advisory criteria, it was decided
that issuance would be delayed by a few periods such that exact
indices could be determined. However, it is safe to say that
Heat Advisories will likely be needed in the coming days.

Showers and thunderstorm potential- There are chances for
showers and thunderstorms over the better portion of the long
term period with a generally unsettled pattern expected.
Coverage of convection is generally anticipated to be more
scattered Monday as a general lack of forcing will limit
widespread development. However, showers and thunderstorms
should generally increase in coverage beginning Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday as an upper-level trough digs south
and east through the region in tandem with the eastward track of
a surface low progressing through southeast Canada. This system
will look to send a cold front through the region Wednesday
which could lead to the development of some stronger
thunderstorms across eastern New York and western New England.
There remains some timing differences in the models which will
greatly impact convective development and severity. Will monitor
trends closely going forward.

Thursday and Friday should generally be drier and cooler after
the progression of the front with highs in the 70s and 80s both
days.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected at the terminals
to start the period with ceilings around the 4000-7000 ft
range. Winds will be light & variable with weak surface flow
thanks to a nearby frontal boundary.

Heading into this evening, have held on to VCSH mention for
KALB/KPOU/KPSF as there will be scattered diurnally driven
showers across the region. Coverage of rain showers will
increase from south to north overnight as moisture and lift
increases across the frontal boundary. Confidence of
precipitation is high for KPSF/KPOU where MVFR ceilings and
visibilities are favored late tonight through mid-morning
Saturday. To the north, confidence of precipitation is lower,
especially at KGFL which maintains a PROB30 group. Regardless of
precip, MVFR ceilings will build north into the Capital
District after midnight with ceilings generally around the
2500-3000 ft range.

Saturday morning, conditions will gradually improve to VFR from
west to east as the front slowly begins moving east. KPSF/KPOU
will likely not see improvement until about 13.18z.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Saturday
     afternoon for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Saturday
     afternoon for NYZ064>066.
MA...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Saturday
     afternoon for MAZ025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Speck