309
FXUS61 KALY 270520
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
120 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances of rain and cooler temperatures are expected to close out
the work week, with warmer air and storms briefly possible
Saturday. Drier, but warmer weather returns for Sunday, with
hotter and humid conditions for Monday. Another round of showers
and storms arrives with a cold front Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.Update...As of 1:20 AM EDT...Skies remain mainly overcast, but
overall the region is dry with high pressure to our northeast
and upper ridging approaching from the west allowing for
subsidence. There are a few light showers/sprinkles on radar for
areas south of I-90, which are closer to the mid-level front.
However, given current radar and hi-res guidance trends, we
continued to cut back on PoPs through the remainder of the night
into today. Additional minor adjustments to temps and dew
points, but overall previous forecast remains in good shape with
more details below...

.Previous...The 00Z KALY sounding has a strong low- level
inversion and nicely shows the onshore flow from the sfc high
off the coast near the Gulf of Maine. with veering in the
boundary layer. Most of the overnight period looks mainly dry
outside a light isolated sprinkles or showers. Temps will remain
cool in the 50s to lower 60s with abundant clouds. Patchy fog is
also possible tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Dry for most Friday into Saturday morning with increasing chances
  of showers and storms areawide beginning Saturday afternoon

Discussion:

Aforementioned high pressure that will be centered just north of New
England will slowly begin to track northeast during the daytime
Friday. This high and cool, dry east flow should be enough to help
keep much of the area dry through the daytime, though isolated to
scattered rain showers will be possible mainly in the higher terrain
of the ADKs nearer to the mid-level frontal boundary. Temperatures
will be a little cooler compared to today, with PM highs ranging
from the low 60s (terrain) to low 70s (valleys). Some across the
highest terrain may not even see 60.

As the surface high departs to the northeast, a surface low and
trailing shortwave aloft will approach from the Great Lakes. The
approach of the low will help lift the stationary front to our south
back north across the region as a warm front Friday night, ushering
in increasing amounts of moisture and lift to the region. This will
result in shower and storm chances (40-60%) mainly across our far
north into the North Country and US/Canada border, with lesser
values to the south. Lows Friday night will be somewhat milder in
the 50s to mid 60s, with highs Saturday back near to normal in the
70s to low 80s (though there remains some uncertainty in this value
depending on cloud cover and how far north the warm front can get,
so expect additional adjustments).

Attention then turns to the cold front that will be attached to the
surface low, which is progged to track across the region Saturday
afternoon and evening. Overall system dynamics remain unimpressive
with this morning`s model guidance as the main shortwave/closed low
aloft and surface low will be displaced well to the north of the
region, and uncertainties in how warm we will get also make
confidence in severe weather chances low. However, those who can get
into the warm sector (best thinking right now is south of the
Capital District into the Mid-Hudson Valley) could see a risk of PM
showers and thunderstorms, with a low potential for some to be
strong. SPC maintains a general thunder risk at this time. Storms
will also be capable of producing torrential rain given high
dewpoints nearing 70 degrees and PWATs in the 1.50-2.00" range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

 - Increasing heat and humidity early near week with peak heat
   indices nearing 95 Monday.

 - Another round of showers and storms Tuesday with a cold front

Discussion:

Leftover showers and storms from Saturday night will exit by early
Sunday morning, with most seeing dry conditions and near normal
temperatures with high pressure passing to the south during the
daytime. For Monday, renewed southerly flow behind the departing
high pressure will send a warm front back north across the region.
Low level temperatures will be warmer this go-around with 925-850
hPa values around 15-20 degrees C, allowing PM highs to climb well
into the 80s areawide (some near 90 in the western Mohawk Valley).
With dewpoints rising into the upper 60s/ to lower 70s, peak heat
indices of around 90-95F are expected in lower elevations.

Another shortwave and cold front will arrive across the region
Monday night into Tuesday, resulting in another round of showers and
storms for the region. Depending on the timing of the cold front,
some stronger storms may occur on Tuesday if the front moves through
later in the day. Confidence remains low at this time on the severe
weather potential. Temperatures will be slightly cooler Tuesday, but
will remain warm, humid and above normal despite the higher precip
chances.

Drier conditions should prevail for much of the region
by mid week with weak high pressure following the cold front.
However, guidance does hint at potential for low chances
(10-30%) of PM rain showers and storms with weak shortwave
impulses embedded in northwesterly flow behind the front.
Regardless of the storm chances, it will be noticeably less
humid with temperatures back to near normal in the upper 70s to
low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thru 00Z/Sat...Low VFR/high MVFR cigs continue for
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU currently with cigs 3-5 kft AGL. A
stationary front remains south of the region with high pressure
east of New England. Clouds will remain abundant with bases
lowering to 1.5-3.0 kft AGL prior to 06Z/Fri for all the TAF
sites. Bases should return to VFR with cigs 3.5-6 kft AGL in the
late morning 14Z-16Z/Fri time frame. Another disturbance moving
along the boundary tomorrow may bring some isolated-scattered
showers in the afternoon. We used PROB30 groups with MVFR/Low
VFR conditions or just a VCSH group as far east as KPSF. The
winds will be north to east at 7 KT or less and will be light
and variable in direction to calm overnight. The winds will be
east to southeast at 5-10 KT tomorrow in the late morning into
the afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Main/Speck/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...JPV