583
FXUS61 KALY 130539
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
139 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
With a humid air mass in place, some showers and
thunderstorms will be moving northward for early this morning,
especially for southern areas.  Any shower or thunderstorm will be
capable of producing heavy downpours.  This activity will be winding
down by this afternoon, as some drier air starts to move into the
region from the west. Dry and quiet weather will return for Sunday
and it will remain hot, although not quite as muggy as recent days.
More warm and humid weather, along with some additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 133 AM EDT...A stalled frontal boundary is set up just
inland along the I-95 corridor from eastern New England
southward towards the mid Atlantic States. Locally, this
boundary is located across western New England and towards the
mid Hudson Valley. The boundary will be remaining in place
through the rest of the overnight hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows
a large gradient within the PWATs across our area, with values
under 1.5 inches over the Adirondacks but close to 2.0 inches
over NW CT and the southern Berkshires. IR satellite imagery
shows a large swath of clouds extending south to north across
eastern areas, with mainly clear skies across the Adirondacks
and Mohawk Valley.

Radar imagery has shown some batches of showers and embedded
thunderstorms over the last few hours have been impacting the
Berkshires and southern VT. Some downpours have locally led to
rainfall amounts in excess of one half inch across the
Berkshires into southeastern VT, but most areas have seen little
to no rainfall, as activity has been fairly sparse.

CAMs suggest some additional showers and embedded thunderstorms
will work their way northward through the rest of the overnight,
mainly impacting the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and Berkshires,
where a Flood Watch remains in effect. With the high PWATs,
heavy downpours are possible and may lead to some localized
ponding, although the threat for more widespread issues seems to
have decreased due to limited coverage of precip. Will keep the
Flood Watch in effect for now, but any issues look to be more
localized and isolated in coverage through the rest of the
overnight hours. The better moisture is slowly shifting
eastward, and the bigger threat may shift towards the rest of
New England by after daybreak Saturday.

As the best moisture starts shifting eastward, more breaks in
the clouds are expected for the late night hours. Some patchy
fog is possible for areas where clearing occurs. Otherwise, it
will remain mild and muggy through the overnight with lows in
the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Moisture will continue to stream into the region tomorrow
morning as the aforementioned coastal disturbance progresses
farther northward. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be
possible especially within the Mid-Hudson Valley, Northwest
Connecticut and southwest Massachusetts as the stationary
boundary remains in place. With moisture remaining elevated,
locally heavy downpours will continue to be possible with any
shower or thunderstorm that tracks through these areas tomorrow
into tomorrow afternoon. This could lead to localized flooding
especially in urban and poor drainage areas through tomorrow
afternoon especially for Litchfield, southern Berkshire,
Dutchess and eastern Ulster Counties where a Flood Watch remains
in effect until tomorrow afternoon. It is important to note,
however, that latest guidance has decreased the QPF from
previous expectation. While localized amounts of 1" to 2" remain
likely within the areas within the Flood Watch, generally
anywhere from 0.25" to about 0.75" throughout the forecast area
is expected through tomorrow. This is likely due to the
combination of the eastward track of the mid/upper-level
shortwave and the southwest flow about the high offshore acting
to divert the axis of moisture farther east away from the
region.

Showers and any thunderstorms that develop tomorrow will taper
off with the loss of daytime heating tomorrow evening, yielding
dry conditions beginning tomorrow night into Sunday as high
pressure builds in from the west. High temperatures tomorrow
will range from the upper 70s to low 80s at higher elevations
to mid/upper 80s in large valley areas. Lows tomorrow night will
span the upper 50s above 1500 ft to 60s elsewhere. Sunday will
be warm with highs primarily in the 80s with pockets of upper
70s at higher terrain regions and pockets of low 90s in the
Hudson Valley. However, with dewpoints generally looking to
remain within the 60s, heat indices do not look to meet or
exceed Heat Advisory criteria. Lows Sunday night will then fall
to the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A generally unsettled pattern ensues for the long term forecast
period with a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday
through Wednesday. Additionally, hot, humid conditions are
anticipated Monday and Tuesday which seem increasingly likely to
meet Heat Advisory criteria.

Heat Monday and Tuesday- Confidence continues to increase in the
likelihood of dangerous heat and humidity for the beginning of
next week. High temperatures on Monday look to reach the low to
mid 80s at higher elevations and upper 80s to low 90s (possibly
even pockets of mid 90s in the Mid-Hudson Valley). Dew points
progged to reach the upper 60s to low/mid 70s will make for heat
indices in the mid/upper 90s with pockets of low 100s in large
valley areas. Tuesday`s highs, though similar, will fair a few
degrees warmer especially in the Mid-Hudson Valley where pockets
of upper 90s are possible. Tuesday`s dewpoints will also span
the upper 60s to low/mid 70s, allowing maximum apparent
temperatures to reach the upper 90s to low 100s (pockets of 105
possible within the lower Mid-Hudson Valley). While these heat
indices certainly meet Heat Advisory criteria, it was decided
that issuance would be delayed by a few periods such that exact
indices could be determined. However, it is safe to say that
Heat Advisories will likely be needed in the coming days.

Showers and thunderstorm potential- There are chances for
showers and thunderstorms over the better portion of the long
term period with a generally unsettled pattern expected.
Coverage of convection is generally anticipated to be more
scattered Monday as a general lack of forcing will limit
widespread development. However, showers and thunderstorms
should generally increase in coverage beginning Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday as an upper-level trough digs south
and east through the region in tandem with the eastward track of
a surface low progressing through southeast Canada. This system
will look to send a cold front through the region Wednesday
which could lead to the development of some stronger
thunderstorms across eastern New York and western New England.
There remains some timing differences in the models which will
greatly impact convective development and severity. Will monitor
trends closely going forward.

Thursday and Friday should generally be drier and cooler after
the progression of the front with highs in the 70s and 80s both
days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z/Sun...VFR conditions are currently in place at the
TAF sites. Some showers will occasionally track northeast from
KPOU to KPSF over the next few hours, with better chance of
showers primarily affecting KPOU between 09Z-13Z/Sat. During
that time, there could be brief periods of MVFR/IFR Vsbys/Cigs.

In addition, patchy ground fog will likely develop at KGFL over
the next 1-2 hours resulting in intermittent IFR Vsbys through
around 10Z/Sat.

After 13Z/Sat, mainly VFR conditions are expected into this
evening, however an isolated shower/thunderstorm will be
possible this afternoon which could produce a very brief period
of MVFR/IFR Vsbys.

Wind will be light and variable overnight, then become south to
southwesterly at 4-8 kt Saturday morning, and southwest to west
at similar speeds in the afternoon, before becoming
light/variable once again shortly after sunset.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any isolated afternoon thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through this afternoon for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch through this afternoon for NYZ064>066.
MA...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MAZ025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...KL/Rathbun