801
FXUS61 KALY 131038
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
638 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
With a humid air mass in place, some showers and
thunderstorms will be moving northward for early this morning,
especially for southern areas.  Any shower or thunderstorm will be
capable of producing heavy downpours.  This activity will be winding
down by this afternoon, as some drier air starts to move into the
region from the west. Dry and quiet weather will return for Sunday
and it will remain hot, although not quite as muggy as recent days.
More warm and humid weather, along with some additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 638 AM EDT...A stalled frontal boundary is set up just
inland along the I-95 corridor from eastern New England
southward towards the mid Atlantic States. Locally, this
boundary is located across western New England and towards the
mid Hudson Valley. The boundary will be remaining in place
through the morning hours, although it should gradually start to
nudge eastward by afternoon as high pressure over the Great
Lakes tries to spread eastward.

SPC mesoanalysis shows a large gradient within the PWATs across
our area, with values under 1.5 inches north and west of the
Capital Region but close to 2.0 inches over NW CT and the
southern Berkshires. IR satellite imagery shows a large swath of
clouds extending southwest to northeast across southeastern
areas, with mainly clear skies across the eastern Catskills and
Capital Region on north and west. Recent trends in the
satellite and mesoanalysis data suggests this better plume of
moisture is starting to shift eastward, with the best axis now
extending from coastal NJ northward towards central New England.

Radar imagery has shown some batches of showers over the last
few hours have been impacting the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT
although this activity has been fairly light, with MRMS
estimating rates under one tenth of an inch per hour for most
areas, with just localized totals over NW CT reaching up to a
third of an inch per hour. The heaviest downpours have been
over eastern PA and northern NJ over the last hour or so.

CAMs suggest some additional showers and embedded thunderstorms
will work their way northward into the morning hours, mainly
impacting the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and Berkshires. This is
activity currently over eastern PA and northern NJ. However, the
heaviest showers and thunderstorms with this activity look to
generally remain south and east of area, closer to the better
plume of moisture. Still, with the high PWATs, heavy downpours
are possible and may lead to some localized ponding, although
the threat for more widespread issues seems to have decreased
due to limited coverage of precip and lighter rainfall rates. As
a result, have cancelled the Flood Watch earlier this morning,
but will continue to monitor radar trends of any localized
issues.

Some patchy fog will continue for areas where clearing has
occurred early this morning, such as around Glens Falls. With
sunrise now underway, the threat for fog will diminish and this
should dissipate fairly quickly.

Behind these morning showers and thunderstorms, most of the rest
of the day looks to be fairly rain-free. There will be the
potential for some isolated showers or t-storms to develop
during the afternoon, as peak heating will combine with the
nearby boundary and a passing upper level disturbance to the
northwest to allow for a few cells to pop up, but these look to
be fairly sparse in coverage. Poor lapse rates and limited shear
should prevent any activity from getting too tall or organized,
so no threat for any strong storms today. Otherwise, skies will
be a mix of clouds and sun.

It will be a mild and muggy start to the day and temps should
easily get into the 80s this afternoon, with valley areas
topping out in the mid to upper 80s. Dewpoints remain muggy
through most of the day, but may finally start to fall late in
the day as some drier air starts working in from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure looks to be centered over the area for tonight.
This should allow for clearing skies and light winds. Even
though dewpoints will be starting to come down, some patchy fog
may develop in some areas, especially those that saw recent
rainfall or are sheltered by the terrain. Lows will generally be
in the 60s, although some high terrain areas may fall into the
50s.

On Sunday, high pressure will remain in control at the surface,
with the upper level flow fairly zonal. It should be warm aloft
to stay fairly capped and no precip is expected on Sunday, with
a mostly sunny sky. With the warm temps in place aloft, it will
be a rather warm day across the region with highs in the 80s to
low 90s. Dewpoints won`t be as high as recent days with values
in the 60s, so heat index values should fall short of heat
advisory criteria on Sunday.

It will be mainly dry for most areas on Sunday night, although a
few showers could spread towards the western Adirondacks by the
late night hours. Otherwise, it will be another partly to mostly
clear night with light winds and mild conditions, with lows in
the 60s.

For Monday into Monday night, an upper level disturbance will be
sliding along within the zonal flow aloft towards the area.
Right now, the timing seems to suggest that any widespread
showers and t-storms would be later in the day or into Monday
evening. While it will be fairly unstable, there is little
shear to work with and lapse rates will be weak due to the warm
temps aloft, so there won`t be any threat for severe storms.
However, any convection could contain heavy downpours. With 850
hpa temps of +17 to +20 C, it will be hot on Monday. Valley
areas will be in the lower to middle 90s, and some heat
advisories will likely be needed on Monday, especially for the
Capital Region and mid Hudson Valley. It will stay mild and
muggy right into Monday night. The threat for showers and storms
should diminish through the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Hot and humid to start the long term, with chances for mainly
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday. H850 of +18 to +20 C should
allow max temps to reach the lower/mid 90s in many valley areas, and
with dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s, heat indices will likely reach
the upper 90s to lower 100`s for most areas below 1000 Feet.
Shortwave energy and approaching height falls and a possible pre-
frontal trough may allow for some strong thunderstorms with gusty
winds Tuesday afternoon/evening. Warm and humid Tuesday night, with
lows in the lower/mid 70s in valleys, and 60s across higher terrain.

Depending on the timing of a frontal passage, showers/thunderstorms
may linger into Wednesday/Wednesday night, especially southern
areas. Otherwise, some cooling compared to Tuesday, with decreasing
humidity, especially northern areas. High temps may still reach the
lower 90s in southern areas, with mainly 70s to mid/upper 80s
elsewhere.

Cooler and less humid conditions for Thursday and Friday, with
generally fair weather. High temps mainly in the 70s across higher
elevations, and upper 70s/lower 80s within valleys. Nighttime lows
in the mid 50s to lower/mid 60s Thursday morning, and mainly 50s
Friday morning with some 40s possible across the SW Adirondacks.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z/Sun...VFR conditions are currently in place at the
TAF sites. Some showers will occasionally track northeast from
KPOU to KPSF over the next few hours, with better chance of
showers primarily affecting KPOU between 09Z-13Z/Sat. During
that time, there could be brief periods of MVFR/IFR Vsbys/Cigs.

In addition, patchy ground fog will likely develop at KGFL over
the next 1-2 hours resulting in intermittent IFR Vsbys through
around 10Z/Sat.

After 13Z/Sat, mainly VFR conditions are expected into this
evening, however an isolated shower/thunderstorm will be
possible this afternoon which could produce a very brief period
of MVFR/IFR Vsbys.

Wind will be light and variable overnight, then become south to
southwesterly at 4-8 kt Saturday morning, and southwest to west
at similar speeds in the afternoon, before becoming
light/variable once again shortly after sunset.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any isolated afternoon thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL