862
FXUS61 KALY 132330
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
730 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and quiet weather will return for Sunday and it will remain
hot, although not quite as muggy as recent days. More warm and
humid weather, along with some additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 0730 PM EDT, isolated showers and storms have
largely exited the region to the east and southeast, while skies
have rapidly cleared from the west per latest satellite imagery.
Have reduced chances of showers through the evening, with
continued coverage only expected in northwestern CT and adjacent
areas, before dry conditions return after sunset. Otherwise,
clear skies, light winds, and persistent low-level moisture will
allow for some areas of patchy fog to develop. Have added fog
mention through the overnight period to favored valley locales
and where rain fell earlier in the afternoon. Any fog will
quickly dissipate following sunrise. Forecast therefore remains
on track; see previous discussion below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [0400 PM EDT]...Isolated showers and storms
continue but are quite isolated. Based on radar and satellite
trends, the activity is not expected to expand or strengthen.
So, isolated showers and storms are expected to dissipate this
evening, Upper energy beginning to exit through eastern Canada.

The sky should be mostly clear with light winds. There could be
patchy fog but with such limited coverage of rain and slight
drying trend, fog would be quite patchy and not including at
this time but trends will have to be watched. Lows in the 60s
with upper 50s to around 60 northern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly sunny Sunday with very little instability. Maybe an
isolated shower in higher terrain but too isolated to put into
the forecast. Light winds but good mixing will help temperatures
to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s and cooler in higher
terrain.

There are some disagreements in sources of guidance/ensembles
with the timing and track of small northern stream upper
impulses within broad cyclonic upper flow. Upper heights do rise
slowly and low level moisture and humidity will increase Monday
and Tuesday. One upper impulse is expected to track through our
region later Sunday night and Monday morning with some scattered
showers and maybe a rumble of thunder. This will be the leading
edge of the increasing low level moisture and humidity. Boundary
layer temperatures will also increase a bit. Sunshine Monday
afternoon will help temperatures to reach the upper 80s to lower
90s and cooler in higher terrain.

There could be a complex of thunderstorms Monday afternoon with
one upper impulse that could limit heating, but some sources of
guidance suggest little to no thunderstorm activity. The lack of
agreement from sources of guidance is causing a lower confidence
where and if Heat Advisories will be needed Monday. Including
chances for thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening until
better agreement in the guidance/ensembles. Instability will be
considerable and there could be a small zone of enhanced low
level shear. Still, the instability and shear could be enough
for some locally strong to isolated severe thunderstorms. Some
heat index values could reach the mid 90s in the Hudson Valley
to NW CT and a Heat Advisory will be considered once confidence
increases in the precise areas that have the best chances for
the higher heat index values.

More disagreements in sources of guidance/ensembles for timing
of another upper impulse Tuesday. Chances for storms could be
early in the day Tuesday, ending by midday or early afternoon,
while other guidance/ensembles suggests afternoon storms.
Instability will be considerable and deep layer shear could be
30 Kt or better, which could support strong to isolated severe
storms but too early to have high confidence. Highs around 90 to
lower 90s with some mid 90s Hudson Valley and cooler in higher
terrain. Heat headlines could be needed Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong northern stream upper energy drops out of Canada
Wednesday and Thursday and organized convection is expected
Wednesday, exiting our region Wednesday night through Thursday
morning. Cooler and drier weather is expected Friday into next
weekend.

Highs Wednesday in the upper 80s to lower 90s with a few mid 90s
mid Hudson Valley and NW CT and cooler in higher terrain. Highs
Thursday and Friday in the 80s with 70s higher terrain. Highs
Saturday well in the 80s with around 80 higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR conditions expected across the region
outside of areas of fog overnight tonight. Earlier isolated
showers have largely exited to the east and southeast, while
skies are rapidly clearing from west to east with only few
remaining diurnal cu at 4-5 kft. Largely clear skies are
expected by 03-06Z Sun at all terminals, persisting through the
remainder of the overnight period.

Substantial clearing, light winds, and enhanced low-level humidity
may allow for valley fog to form in typical areas as well as where
showers fell earlier. GFL, having recorded a tenth of an inch of
rain within the last few hours, will be the most likely site to see
fog/mist after 06Z Sun, although earlier development of restricted
vsby cannot be ruled out. Lesser chances of fog/mist are expected at
POU/PSF, and have only mentioned MVFR vsbys possibly after 09Z. ALB
will be the least likely terminal to see any impacts. Any fog/mist
will quickly dissipate following sunrise, by 12Z Sun, with otherwise
few diurnal cu at 4-5 kft and VFR conditions expected afterward.

Light winds of generally 5-10 kt at 00Z Sun will steadily diminish
this evening, with calm to light and variable winds expected at all
terminals after 03-06Z Sun. Wind increases to 4-8 kt out of the
southwest to west or west-northwest after 12-15Z Sun, continuing
through the remainder of the period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS/Picard
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Picard