013
FXUS61 KALY 141940
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
340 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Humidity levels will increase Monday through Wednesday with hot
temperatures continuing, along with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will cross the region
Wednesday with additional showers and thunderstorms, followed by
cooler and much less humid conditions by late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Few if any clouds across the region and that should continue
through this evening. Weak band of scattered showers and storms
in western NY and the Great Lakes may hold together enough
through the night to reach eastern NY just before daybreak with
an isolated shower or thunderstorm. The mesoscale models are not
in much agreement on the coverage of showers and storms as
the relatively stable conditions in eastern NY will modify a
little overnight with slowly increasing low level moisture but
very weak upper dynamics and low level forcing.

So, increasing cloud cover through the night with an isolated
shower or thunderstorm. Lows in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
**Heat Advisory issued for the Hudson Valley, including the
 Capital Region, the Mohawk Valley, Lake George Saratoga Region
 and northwestern Connecticut noon Monday through 8 PM
 Tuesday**

The timing and coverage of showers and storms Monday and Tuesday
is still a bit uncertain but there is some degree of consensus.
Once small upper impulse tracking through the Great Lakes Monday
will support a period of scattered showers and thunderstorms
Monday afternoon and evening. Low level moisture and humidity
will increase and sunshine outside of any showers and storms
will help temperatures reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, with
heat indices in the mid to upper 90s in the Hudson and Mohawk
Valley and NW CT.

The heat and humidity will support considerable instability,
CAPES at and above 1500 j/kg in many areas. Shear will not be
strong but deep shear around 30 to 40 Kt could support some
stronger storms with isolated damaging winds. Locally heavy
rain possible with ponding of water on roadways.

Convection will diminish through Monday evening and a mix of
convective debris clouds will stay over our region into Tuesday
morning. Mixed sunshine and clouds Tuesday morning and at least
part of the afternoon will help temperatures reach into the
upper 80s to lower 90s again with heat indices from the mid 90s
to around 100.

Another small upper impulse is expected to track along or
near the U.S./Canada border. This upper impulse will support
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the late
morning to early afternoon over western areas and coverage of
storms will increase through the afternoon as they track east.

Instability will be considerable once again, with CAPES at or
exceeding 1500 j/kg. However, deep shear may be a bit stronger
with 40 Kt or better, supporting a few organized areas of storms
and isolated to scattered damaging winds. Locally heavy rain
possible with ponding of water on roadways.

Coverage of showers and storms diminish Tuesday night but as a
cold front begins to approach and as the area of stronger
boundary layer winds expands in coverage, some isolated to
scattered showers and storms may persist through much of Tuesday
night. Some intervals of clouds and sun with isolated to
scattered showers and storms Wednesday morning will increase in
coverage Wednesday afternoon with the approach of stronger
upper energy and the associated cold front. A bit more coverage
of clouds Wednesday will limit highs to the mid 80s to around 90
and cooler in higher terrain.

Instability and shear could support some strong to severe
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Then weakened
showers and storms linger through Wednesday night as the cold
front tracks through.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weakened showers and storms decrease in coverage through
Wednesday night. Then, the boundary layer wind shift and leading
edge of boundary layer cold advection tracks through the region
through the day Thursday. So, there will be a mix of clouds and
sun and the low level forcing along the leading edge of the
cold advection and boundary layer wind shift could support an
isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs Thursday in the low to
mid 80s with 70s higher terrain.

Cooling and drying Friday with highs in the lower to mid 80s and
cooler in higher terrain. Just a slight bit warmer Saturday with
highs in the mid 80s and upper 70s to around 80 higher terrain.
A little bit warmer Sunday as upper heights rise slowly and
weak warm advection occurs. Highs in the mid to upper 80s with
around 80 higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z Monday...VFR conditions prevail at all terminals
with visible satellite showing mainly clear skies outside of
some patchy, fair weather cumulus. Conditions are anticipated to
remain steady throughout the 18z TAF period despite some
increasing mid-level cloud coverage possible overnight tonight
with the nearing of a weak, upper-level disturbance. A stray
shower or two could develop at KGFL and/or KALB as a result, but
confidence was not high enough in this element of the forecast
to include showers in the TAFs at this time. Should a shower
move into terminal bounds overnight tonight, it should be light
and brief enough to not disrupt VFR conditions.

Winds throughout the 18z cycle will be light and variable at
speeds ranging from 2-5 kt.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ001-
     013.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ038>041-043-049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066-083-084.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Gant