595
FXUS61 KALY 201043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
643 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry and quiet weekend is on tap for most of eastern NY and western
New England, with temperatures warming back above normal and only a
slight chance of a shower or storm each day. Better chances of
showers and thunderstorms will arrive areawide by early next week,
along with more humid conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 640 AM EDT...Latest satellite imagery shows mid to high
level clouds continuing to stream into the area from the south
and west. Despite that, some fog has developed mainly in higher
terrain across the ADKs and western New England. I went ahead
and added in more of a patchy fog mention in these areas over
the next few hours with improvement expected by mid morning.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See below for more
details...

Previous...High pressure currently across western NY will broaden
out and weaken today, through conditions should remain quiet and dry
for most with increasing mid to high level clouds from the south.
These clouds are associated with strengthening southwest flow and a
weak disturbance over Appalachian Mountains. This disturbance will
move across the Mid Atlantic through tonight, and may drive some
diurnal and terrain-forced showers and storms mainly over areas
along and south of Interstate 90 today. Latest CAMs are a bit more
aggressive on these chances than previous runs, so have upped POPs
to around 20-30% for the aforementioned areas, especially across the
Catskills.

Temperatures will be warmer compared to Friday with increasing 925-
850 hPa temperatures. Expect PM highs to range from the upper 70s in
terrain to mid 80s in valleys and lower elevations.

For tonight, lingering showers and storms across the southern CWA
will weaken, with dry conditions prevailing. A weak front dropping
south across the ADKs may promote an isolated rain shower overnight,
though moisture and forcing is lacking so confidence is low on
chances. Look for lows to be warmer with clouds on the increase,
with values ranging from the 50s in terrain to mid 60s in valley
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The weak front dropping south from the ADKs will become more diffuse
and weaken as it moves across the area Sunday. Some weak forcing
leftover from the front and a nearby upper level jet may promote
isolated diurnally driven showers and storms during the afternoon
and evening. However, it should remain dry for most with PM highs
ranging from the 70s (terrain) to upper 80s (valleys). Dewpoints
should remain confined to the upper 50s to low 60s, keeping
humidities low. Overnight lows will range from the 40s/50s (terrain)
to low 60s (valleys) with a weak high building into the area.

Flow will switch from northwest to southwest late Sunday night into
Monday, allowing for warmer air and moisture to slowly build into
the region to start the work week. The departing high should keep
dry conditions prevailing areawide, though a slight chance of a PM
shower or storm exists mainly for the mid Hudson Valley thanks to
pockets of CVA embedded in the southwest flow aloft. PM highs Monday
will be warmer, and will range from the upper 70s (terrain) to upper
80s (valleys). Lows Monday night will only drop into the upper 60s,
especially for valley locations. Humidity levels will be more
noticeable as dewpoints climb into the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An active pattern looks to set up through much of the long term
period as a stationary surface boundary extends over much of the
Northeast on the downstream flank of a positively-tilted upper
trough over the Midwest. A series of weak impulses moving along the
boundary will yield multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms,
peaking in coverage with diurnal heating each afternoon and evening.
Latest NAEFS guidance maintains precipitable water values some 1-2
standard deviation above normal, suggesting that showers and storms
may be capable of locally heavy rainfall throughout the period. The
parent trough may finally exit to the east on Friday, potentially
ending the workweek may on a drier note.

Temperatures through the period remain near or slightly above normal
with persistently elevated humidity. Afternoon highs Tuesday through
Friday look to remain steady in the upper 60s to upper 70s in high
terrain and upper 70s to upper 80s at lower elevations, while
overnight lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s are expected across the
region each night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Largely VFR conditions expected across the the
region throughout the period. Any remaining patchy fog will quickly
dissipate over the next hour. A weak disturbance will pass to the
south, bringing increased coverage of cirrus at 20-25 kft through
much of today. Otherwise, sct-bkn low clouds at 3-5 kft are expected
at all terminals beneath the cirrus deck. Rain showers associated
with the approaching system this afternoon may result in brief MVFR
cigs/vsbys, most likely at POU from 21-24Z Sat. Otherwise, VFR cigs
and unrestricted vsbys are expected at ALB/GFL/PSF.

Calm winds this morning will increase out of the southwest at 5-10
kt after 14-16Z Sat at all terminals, and will subsequently diminish
to less than 5 kt after 00-03Z Sun.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck
NEAR TERM...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Picard