762
FXUS61 KALY 200330
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1130 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be positioned over the region tonight,
providing continued dry and relatively cool conditions.
Temperatures will warm to slightly above normal levels Saturday
through Monday, with low probability of a shower or
thunderstorm in some spots each day. There will be better
chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
through Thursday, with more humid conditions as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
.Update...A very pleasant July evening continues tonight with
temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s with comfortable
humidity levels. Skies have turned clear supporting ideal
radiational cooling conditions but we still expect some cirrus
clouds associated with a disturbance brewing off the mid-
Atlantic coast to expand northward before sunrise. Cirrus clouds
likely reach just north of I-90 into southern VT based on
300hPa RH guidance with the southern/western Adirondacks
remaining mainly clear. Coolest temperatures will likely be
found here with lows in the low 50s (pockets of upper 40s in the
highest terrain). Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out in the
Upper Hudson Valley as lows approach their respective dew
points.

Previous discussion...High pressure will be positioned directly
over the region tonight, bringing mainly clear skies and light
winds. Some high level clouds will start to increase from the
south/west late. With a continued dry air mass in place, lows
will be slightly below normal again, ranging from upper 40s the
W. Adirondacks to upper 50s in the Hudson Valley. Patchy fog may
occur in favored sheltered areas and near bodies of water.

Sat looks to be mainly dry with high pressure still in place,
but gradually weakening. Guidance continues to show a weak
disturbance brushing the southern part of the area during the
afternoon, which may produce isolated showers/T-storms. Will
maintain 20% PoPs for areas south of Albany considering limited
moisture, weak instability (SBCAPE ~500 J/Kg) and modest
forcing. The air mass does warm compared to Fri, so highs are
expected to range from the upper 70s in the higher terrain to
mid 80s in lower elevations. Humidity levels remain modest,
with dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s much of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sat night, a large upper level low will be tracking eastward
across Quebec. While the southern edge of the upper low should
remain north of our area, a associated weak surface cold front
south of the upper low is expected to move into the
Adirondacks. There still looks to be limited moisture available,
so will mention just isolated showers there with dry conditions
elsewhere. Lows will be milder than the past few nights, but
still near normal ranging from mid/upper 50s in the mountains to
lower/mid 60s in the valleys.

As the upper level flow becomes confluent on Sun, the
aforementioned weak cold front will basically become diffuse
over our area. So not much activity is expected, with just an
isolated shower/T-storm in some spots mainly from around Albany
north. Most of the area and time will be dry though. Highs may
be a few degrees warmer than Sat given expected sunshine, with
highs in the mid to upper 80s in lower elevations. Humidity
still looks to be relatively comfortable, with dewpoints mainly
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Any isolated convection should wane Sun evening due to diurnal
effects and lack of forcing. Weak high pressure builds back in
Sun night, providing tranquil conditions and additional drying.
Low temperatures will range from the upper 40s in the W.
Adirondacks to mid 60s in the mid Hudson Valley.

On Mon, the flow aloft becomes more SW, so moisture will start
to slowly increase. Dewpoints in lower elevations should rise
into the mid 60s, making it feel slightly more humid. Dry
conditions should generally prevail, with just low (20%)
probability of a diurnally driven shower/T-storm in some spots.
High temperatures look similar to Sun, with upper 70s/lower 80s
in the mountains and mid/upper 80s in the valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The pattern becomes more active for much of the long term
period. Starting Tue, a west-east oriented front is forecast to
set up somewhere over our area or in close proximity. This front
looks to be quasi-stationary through at least Thu, until an
upstream upper level trough kicks it out. So this pattern will
likely result in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
each day. The most likely times for greater coverage should be
during the diurnally favored afternoon/evening hours. Will
mention higher PoPs (60-70%) during these more favored times,
and 30-50% PoPs at other times.

With PWAT anomalies forecast to increase to +1 to +2 STDEV, and
remain above normal, locally heavy rainfall may occur in some
areas. Will have to watch for any locations that receive
repeated rounds of heavy rain, with a potential for isolated
flash flooding. Will continue to monitor trends until details
come into better focus. Temperatures looks to be near normal for
highs and above normal for lows, with clouds/showers around
and humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00 UTC/Sunday, mainly expecting VFR conditions for all
TAF terminals. Diurnally driven cumulus clouds dissipate after
sunset this evening followed by cirrus that expand northward out
of the mid-Atlantic for the pre-dawn hours. Cirrus clouds linger
into the daytime but remain mainly from around I-90 into the
southern VT southward. Some patchy fog may develop near GFL
which remains mainly clear tonight and including potential for
MVFR visibilities starting around 08 UTC. Any fog should
diminished by 12 UTC.

VFR conditions continue through the day for the terminals with
potential for some isolated showers or storms to develop around
POU after 18 UTC. Only included VCSH for now as there remains
uncertainty on where and when exactly showers may develop or
impact.

Light and variable winds through sunrise with southwesterly
winds developing by 15 - 18 UTC becoming sustained 5-8kts with
gusts up to 15kts.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/Speciale
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speciale