136
FXUS61 KALY 201750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
150 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers and a stray thunderstorm is expected this
evening into tonight for southern areas, otherwise it will be
comfortable with some patchy fog.  Mainly dry and seasonable weather
is expected on Sunday into Monday.  An approaching frontal system
will return the threat for showers and thunderstorms to the region
for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 149 PM EDT...The latest surface map shows a stalled
frontal boundary over the mid Atlantic States with weak surface
high pressure over western New York. Visible satellite imagery
shows high level clouds streaming in the region from the
southwest, mainly for areas south of the Adirondacks. In
addition, some diurnal cu has developed and this has led to the
development of some isolated showers over the Catskills.

Based on the latest CAMs, some isolated to scattered showers are
expected to pass across southern areas for this afternoon and
the evening hours. SPC Mesonanalysis shows some limited amounts
of CAPE in place (generally around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE or less).
0-6 km bulk shear is fairly weak due to the limited dynamics in
place. Still, can`t rule out a brief thunderstorm for the
afternoon or evening hours. While strong storms aren`t
anticipated, any storm will be capable of some brief heavy
downpours. Although PWATs are fairly low for most areas, SPC
mesoanalysis does show values exceeding 1.25" for far southern
areas.

Max temps will be in the lower to middle 80s for valley areas,
with 70s across the high terrain. There will be a big variation
in dewpoints across the region. While northern areas are still
seeing dewpoints in the 50s, southern valley areas are starting
to see dewpoints creep back up into the middle 60s, allowing for
a return to more humid weather.

Most of the showers should start to diminish by the late
evening, although can`t rule out something brief lingering into
the overnight for the far southern areas. In addition, a
frontal system will begin approaching from the north as well.
Based on the latest guidance, most of the shower activity should
remain north of the southern Adirondacks, though, through the
overnight hours. As a result, it will be quiet overnight for
most of the area. Skies will generally range from partly to
mostly clear, with the most clear skies across the Mohawk Valley
and Capital Region, where the influence of clouds from the two
systems will be the least. Overnight lows will generally be in
the mid 50s to mid 60s across the area, so fairly seasonable for
mid July.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The weak front dropping south from the ADKs will become more diffuse
and weaken as it moves across the area Sunday. Some weak forcing
leftover from the front and a nearby upper level jet may promote
isolated diurnally driven showers and storms during the afternoon
and evening. However, it should remain dry for most with PM highs
ranging from the 70s (terrain) to upper 80s (valleys). Dewpoints
should remain confined to the upper 50s to low 60s, keeping
humidities low. Overnight lows will range from the 40s/50s (terrain)
to low 60s (valleys) with a weak high building into the area.

Flow will switch from northwest to southwest late Sunday night into
Monday, allowing for warmer air and moisture to slowly build into
the region to start the work week. The departing high should keep
dry conditions prevailing areawide, though a slight chance of a PM
shower or storm exists mainly for the mid Hudson Valley thanks to
pockets of CVA embedded in the southwest flow aloft. PM highs Monday
will be warmer, and will range from the upper 70s (terrain) to upper
80s (valleys). Lows Monday night will only drop into the upper 60s,
especially for valley locations. Humidity levels will be more
noticeable as dewpoints climb into the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An active pattern looks to set up through much of the long term
period as a stationary surface boundary extends over much of the
Northeast on the downstream flank of a positively-tilted upper
trough over the Midwest. A series of weak impulses moving along the
boundary will yield multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms,
peaking in coverage with diurnal heating each afternoon and evening.
Latest NAEFS guidance maintains precipitable water values some 1-2
standard deviation above normal, suggesting that showers and storms
may be capable of locally heavy rainfall throughout the period. The
parent trough may finally exit to the east on Friday, potentially
ending the workweek may on a drier note.

Temperatures through the period remain near or slightly above normal
with persistently elevated humidity. Afternoon highs Tuesday through
Friday look to remain steady in the upper 60s to upper 70s in high
terrain and upper 70s to upper 80s at lower elevations, while
overnight lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s are expected across the
region each night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18z Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the 24 hours TAF period. Widely scattered SHRA/TSRA may get
close to KPOU this afternoon into early evening, which could briefly
reduce conditions to MVFR. However, probability is less than 25
percent, so will just mention VCSH in the TAF. Dry conditions should
prevail at the other sites.

There is potential for some fog overnight, especially at KGFL where
skies should be mainly clear tonight. Added mention of TEMPO for
occasional IFR conditions between 07-10z Sunday. Otherwise will
mention TEMPO for MVFR at KPSF from 09z-11z with lower confidence in
fog formation there. VFR should prevail at KALB/KPOU tonight. VFR
conditions are expected on Sunday once any early morning fog
dissipates.

Winds will generally be south-southwest around 5-10 kt then becoming
variable less than 5 kt tonight. Winds on Sunday will shift to the
northwest around 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...JPV