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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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258 FXUS61 KALY 161055 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 655 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions continue today with scattered strong to severe thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening. A cold front will bring additional scattered thunderstorms Wednesday along with continued warm and humid conditions. Cooler and much less humid conditions along with fair weather will follow in the wake of the front for Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... **Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Hudson Valley including the Capital Region, the Mohawk Valley, Lake George Saratoga Region, northwest Connecticut and now eastern Windham County until 8 PM Tuesday.** ** Scattered severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening across eastern NY and adjacent western New England ** .UPDATE...As of 630 AM EDT, still quite a bit of lower clouds for areas north of I-90, especially higher elevations. Some patches of drizzle/sprinkles across the southern Adirondacks and upslope areas of southern VT are diminishing. Expect clouds across northern areas to gradually erode from south to north by mid morning, with mostly sunny skies elsewhere through this morning. MCV across southern Michigan will continue tracking east/northeast today, with convection developing ahead of it across western/central NYS later this morning and then spreading into eastern NY from west to east between roughly 3 PM and 8 PM. Damaging winds will be the main threat from these storms, though isolated instances of large hail may also occur, and a low probability (~2% per SPC) of tornadoes also exists for the Mohawk Valley, southern Adirondacks and Lake George/Saratoga region. [PREVIOUS 357 AM EDT]...As of 350 AM EDT, spotty light showers/patchy drizzle continues for areas mainly north of I-90, as remnant low level circulation from previous MCV tracks east across the southern Adirondacks. We expect these showers/drizzle to expand into southern VT over the next hour, with occasional light showers/drizzle gradually tapering off from west to east toward or after 6 AM. Weak shortwave ridging should allow for a period of sunshine for most areas after any early morning low clouds lift. Temperatures should rise rapidly through this morning and early afternoon in response to mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures aloft. Meanwhile, next MCS currently across the southern Great Lakes will continue tracking east. Although main convection may weaken this morning, lingering outflow on its leading edge will likely serve as a focus for additional convective initiation across western/central NYS later this morning, which should then track east later this afternoon. By late afternoon, instability builds with HREF Mean MUCAPES reaching at least 1000-1500 J/kg for most areas, greatest near and south of I-90. 0-6 km shear will strengthen to around 30-35 KT, allowing for some potential storm organization. Latest CAMs suggest another potential QLCS with bowing segments moves west to east across the region between roughly 3 and 8 PM. Scattered damaging wind gusts appear to be the greatest threat, however should any discrete cells occur, isolated large hail can not be ruled out. In addition, there is a low probability (~2%) for a tornado for areas along and north of I-90, where low level shear will be greatest (0-1 km SRH ~100-150 m2/s2 per HREF mean). Max temps should reach the lower/mid 90s within many valley areas once again, with dewpoints generally between 65-70. This should allow maximum heat indices to reach 95-100 in most valley areas, where a heat advisory remains in effect until 8 PM this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Ongoing showers/thunderstorms should shift east of the region by 10 PM. In their wake, expect partly cloudy skies with patchy fog forming. Lows mainly 65-70. Another active day possible Wednesday, with greatest chances for scattered severe thunderstorms generally from the Capital Region and points south and east, where greatest instability (HREF mean MUCAPES 1000-1500+ J/kg) overlaps modest deep layer shear (0-6 km shear ~30-35 KT). Deep layer shear will be stronger farther north, however instability will be more questionable for these areas as a pre-frontal trough may scour out higher dewpoints and better instability prior to peak heating and approaching cold front. SPC has placed areas from the Capital Region south and east, including southern VT, within a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, with a Marginal Risk for the remainder of the region. Isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts appear to be the greatest severe thunderstorm threat. Lingering showers/thunderstorms Wednesday night, which could even linger into Thursday morning across the mid Hudson Valley/NW CT region as a wave developing along the front and sharpening upper level trough approaches from the west. By Thursday afternoon, cooler and much less humid conditions overspread the region, with a mix of sun and clouds and somewhat breezy conditions developing (west/northwest winds possibly gusting up to 25 mph). Max temps should reach the lower/mid 80s in valleys, with mainly 70s for higher terrain areas. Dewpoints should fall into the mid 50s to around 60 in the afternoon. Mainly clear and cooler for Thursday night, with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s for many areas, with some 40s possible across portions of the southern Adirondacks. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Much of the long term period will be dry with seasonable temperatures. High pressure will remain anchored across the region Friday into Saturday with dry weather and comfortable humidity levels. A weak cold front will slowly push southward later Saturday through Sunday, but may have little to no moisture to work with. In addition, we may be under the influence of mid-level confluent flow. As a result, most areas could remain dry, but an isolated shower cannot be ruled out. High pressure then reestablishes itself on Monday with continued dry and comfortable weather. Highs each day will be in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12z/Wed...Cigs have lifted back to VFR and should remain VFR into the early afternoon hours. A broken to solid line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to cross the TAF sites later this afternoon and evening, especially between 21z/Tue and 00z/Wed. Have reduced the PROB30 groups to 2 hours for the most likely timing of the storms. Gusty winds can occur with these storms along with reductions to IFR/MVFR. Cigs/vsbys should lift back to VFR in the wake of these storms with precipitation chances ending. There is some uncertainty on whether or not any patchy low level stratus and/or fog develops overnight. Will refer to later outlooks to address this potential. Wind will become south to southwesterly at 7 to 15 kt today with a few gusts to around 20 kt, then decrease to less than 10 kt tonight. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>041-043- 049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066-083-084. MA...None. VT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gant/KL NEAR TERM...KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...Rathbun