053
FXUS61 KALY 201937
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
337 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers and a stray thunderstorm are expected this
evening into tonight for southern areas, otherwise it will be
comfortable with some patchy fog. Mainly dry and seasonable
weather is expected on Sunday into Monday. An approaching
frontal system will return the threat for showers and
thunderstorms to the region for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 337 PM EDT...The latest surface map shows a stalled
frontal boundary over the mid Atlantic States with weak surface
high pressure over western New York. Visible satellite imagery
shows high level clouds streaming in the region from the
southwest, mainly for areas south of the Adirondacks. In
addition, some diurnal cu has developed and this has led to the
development of a batch of showers and embedded thunderstorms
over the Catskills and mid Hudson Valley.

Based on the radar imagery and latest CAMs, this activity is
expected to pass across southern areas for the late afternoon
and the evening hours. SPC Mesonanalysis shows some limited
amounts of CAPE in place (generally around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE or
less). 0-6 km bulk shear is fairly weak due to the limited
dynamics in place. Still, can`t rule out a brief thunderstorm
for the afternoon or evening hours and a few rogue lightning
flashes and strikes have already occurred. While strong storms
aren`t anticipated, any shower or storm will be capable of some
brief heavy downpours. Although PWATs are fairly low for most
areas, SPC mesoanalysis does show values exceeding 1.25" for far
southern areas. MRMS output has already estimated rainfall rates
in excess of one half inch per hour having occurred over the
eastern Catskills.

Most of the showers should start to diminish by the late
evening, although can`t rule out something brief lingering into
the overnight for the far southern areas. In addition, a frontal
system will begin approaching from the north as well. Based on
the latest guidance, most of the shower activity should remain
north of the southern Adirondacks, though, through the overnight
hours. As a result, it will be quiet overnight for most of the
area. Skies will generally range from partly to mostly clear,
with the most clear skies across the Mohawk Valley and Capital
Region, where the influence of clouds from the two systems will
be the least. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid 50s to
mid 60s across the area, so fairly seasonable for mid July.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level shortwave trough will be passing by to the north
across southern Canada on Sunday. Surface cold front will be
passing the area from north to south during the day. There could
be a few spotty showers along boundary, although most areas will
be staying dry. Will go with slight chc POPs from north to south
through the day with the passage of the front. Temps will be in
the 80s for most areas (70s in the Adirondacks) with muggy
dewpoints in valley areas.

Behind the front, dry and comfortable weather is expected for
Sunday night with clearing skies and light winds. Some patchy
fog may once again form in typical sheltered areas and near
bodies of water.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

Monday will start off dry and quiet with a partly sunny sky.
However, the cold front will start lifting back north as a warm
front and a few showers are possible by late Monday into Monday
night, along with increasing clouds. Daytime temps will be in
the 80s in valley areas with dewpoints starting to creep back
up through the 60s. Monday night looks more muggy and milder
than recent night with most spots in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Muggy weather looks to be in place for the start of the long
term period with a southerly flow in place. Approaching
shortwaves look to bring a threat for showers and thunderstorms
each day Tuesday through Thursday, especially during the
afternoon and evening hours. The greatest coverage may wind up
being Thursday ahead of the strongest shortwave moving in from
the Great Lakes. While temps don`t look excessively warm each
day (mainly in the middle 80s), dewpoints will be sticky in the
60s to lower 70s. With the higher moisture and repeated chance
for showers and thunderstorms, will need to watch for heavy
downpours each day, with some localized flooding possible. WPC
has southeastern areas in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
on both Days 4 and 5 (Tues and Wed).

Some drier, cooler and less humid conditions may start to
return by late in the week into the weekend. Will lower the
chance for precip by Saturday. Temps will continue to remain
seasonable in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18z Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the 24 hours TAF period. Widely scattered SHRA/TSRA may get
close to KPOU this afternoon into early evening, which could briefly
reduce conditions to MVFR. However, probability is less than 25
percent, so will just mention VCSH in the TAF. Dry conditions should
prevail at the other sites.

There is potential for some fog overnight, especially at KGFL where
skies should be mainly clear tonight. Added mention of TEMPO for
occasional IFR conditions between 07-10z Sunday. Otherwise will
mention TEMPO for MVFR at KPSF from 09z-11z with lower confidence in
fog formation there. VFR should prevail at KALB/KPOU tonight. VFR
conditions are expected on Sunday once any early morning fog
dissipates.

Winds will generally be south-southwest around 5-10 kt then becoming
variable less than 5 kt tonight. Winds on Sunday will shift to the
northwest around 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...JPV