585
FXUS61 KALY 170508
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
108 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clear to partly cloudy skies expected overnight. A cold front
will bring additional scattered thunderstorms Wednesday along
with continued warm and humid conditions. Cooler and much less
humid conditions along with fair weather will follow in the wake
of the front for Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 110 AM EDT, clear to partly cloudy skies across
the region, with patchy low clouds across portions of the
southern Adirondacks/southern VT, and mainly high clouds across
southeast areas.

Through daybreak, expect these sky conditions to continue, with
perhaps some patchy fog developing around daybreak once the
breeze diminishes.

Low temps around daybreak generally in the mid 60s to around 70.

[PREVIOUS 1016 PM EDT]...Mix of clouds over the region as weak
upper ridging builds into our region, and area 00Z soundings
show a bit more stable behind the upper impulse that tracked
through our region today.

Stronger northern stream upper energy north of the Great Lakes
will affect our region Wednesday. So, dry weather and humid
tonight with lows in the mid 60s to around 70. Then instability,
the upper dynamics associated with the upper impulse and low
level forcing along the low level wind shift and leading edge of
cold advection will support more scattered strong to severe
storms Wednesday.

Thanks to everyone who sent severe weather reports, pictures
and videos. They were very helpful.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Another active day is forecast on Wednesday, with a low to
medium chance of isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms. The
highest likelihood of severe thunderstorms will be from the
Capital Region south and east where 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE is
forecast to exist in conjunction with 0-6 km shear in excess of
30 knots. 12z HREF guidance indicates that convection will begin
by early afternoon and move east through the afternoon hours. Damaging
winds will be the primary hazard with any strong to severe
thunderstorm that develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term period will be dry with seasonable temperatures
thanks to surface high pressure below northwest 500 hPa flow.
Highs each day will be in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s
and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00z Thursday...Lingering showers and thunderstorms will be a
concern mainly for KPSF over the next hour, where brief drops to
IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible heavy downpours.

VFR conditions should prevail for the terminals through this
evening, though latest satellite imagery does show some scattered
ceilings around 2000-3000 ft moving into the area from the west
which could produce some brief drops to MVFR at times. These
ceilings should clear out overnight as drier air buildings into the
lower levels. Late tonight into Wednesday morning, fog formation
remains possible at KGFL/KPSF as winds become light & variable and
RHs remain elevated from heavy rains today. Have maintained MVFR
visibilities in this TAF for those locations.

By Wednesday morning, any fog that develops should quickly burn off
with the sunrise, allowing VFR conditions to prevail for the
remainder of the period. Have opted to at add PROB30 groups for all
terminals late in the period as chances of showers and storms will
increase across the region.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/KL
NEAR TERM...Humphrey/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...Humphrey
LONG TERM...Humphrey
AVIATION...Speck