722
FXUS61 KALY 180002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
802 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
More tranquil, seasonable weather is expected after the front
passes through tonight as high pressure builds into the region
from the west. The next chances for showers and thunderstorms
comes early to middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Rain over the region will slowly exit through the evening and
clouds will linger much of the night. There could be a rumble of
thunder in the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT this evening. Weak
cold advection will occur between midnight and daybreak behind
the cold front. So just minor adjustments to rain chances, sky
cover and temperatures through the night.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
The aforementioned cold front will continue to track south and
east throughout the night as its parent low follows along its
eastwardly track and the associated upper-level trough continues
to dig south and east toward the Ohio Valley. Some scattered
showers will remain possible through early tomorrow morning but
will gradually decrease in coverage before dry conditions return
by daybreak. Low temperatures overnight will fall to the upper
50s to low 60s above 1000 ft with mid to upper 60s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned cold front will exit the region to the south
and east early tomorrow morning, yielding drier, cooler
conditions across eastern New York and western New England. With
upper-level troughing persisting throughout the day tomorrow,
some wrap around moisture could lead to some showers developing
in the Southwest Adirondacks tomorrow afternoon but the
remainder of the area should remain dry. High temperatures
tomorrow will be much more comfortable than recent days with mid
to upper 70s at higher elevations and low to possibly mid 80s
(Mid-Hudson Valley). Additionally, the drier airmass that will
be inflicted with the cold frontal passage will keep humidity
low.

The remainder of the short term period will remain tranquil and
comfortable with high pressure building in from the west
beginning tomorrow afternoon. A break from the heat will
continue Friday with high temperatures similar to Thursday at
mid/upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Adjacent high pressure will ensure mainly dry conditions through
Monday, though a few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm
or two will be possible north of Albany Sunday as a weak cold front
sinks south through the region as it`s parent low pressure system
pushes eastward across southeast Canada. High temperatures Saturday
through Monday look to range from the mid/upper 70s to low 80s above
1000 ft with mid to upper 80s elsewhere. Lows Saturday night
through Monday night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms then increase heading into
Tuesday as a warm front approaches from the south and a cold front
from the north. Differences in the guidance have make for sufficient
uncertainty at this time to maintain a maximum of slight to chance
PoPs through Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday look to be similar
to Saturday through Monday with upper 70s at higher elevations and
mid/upper 80s elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Light rain along a slow moving cold front will affect KGFL
through about 03Z, so including VCSH there. Intermittent light
rain at KALB and KPSF through about 04Z and KPOU through about
06Z. Some IFR scattered clouds at KALB and intermittent IFR
ceilings at KPSF. Once the rain ends, the ceilings and
visibilities will be predominant VFR, from 04Z-06Z and through
Thursday morning and afternoon.

The cloud cover and slow low level drying process may limit
fog, although the wet ground could create some patchy fog. Will
amend to include fog if there is more clearing and temperatures
reach dew points. After about 14Z, just scattered clouds and
VFR conditions through Thursday afternoon.

Light and variable winds at less than 6 Kt will become northwest
through the night. Northwest winds will increase to around 10
Kt by about 14Z Thursday and continue through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant/NAS
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...NAS