090
FXUS61 KALY 181734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
134 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Building high pressure will bring mostly dry and seasonable
weather through Friday with comfortable humidity levels. Warmer
weather returns this weekend with a slight chance for a shower
or thunderstorm in spots both days. Chances for more widespread
showers and thunderstorms increases during the early to middle
part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...Northwest winds gusting to around 15-25 mph at times
this afternoon, as cooler/drier air has filtered in behind the
cold front. Dewpoints have dropped into the 50s to lower 60s,
which are much lower than recent days. As a disturbance
approaches from SE Canada, a few showers or sprinkles may occur
in the W. Adirondacks, but most areas will remain dry.

.PREV DISCUSSION[1005]...No significant changes with this
update. Cold front has cleared the entire area, with a cooler
and less humid air mass filtering in from the north/west. Just
some mid/high level clouds moving across areas south/east of
Albany at this time.

A positively-tilted upper-level trough will approach the region
from the west later today. This could bring an isolated shower
or two to portions of the Adirondacks; otherwise, the rest of
the area should have a dry day. Any lingering clouds this
morning will give way to a partly to mostly sunny afternoon with
lowering humidity. Highs will be closer to climatological
normals for the second half of July with mid-70s to mid-80s in
the valleys and upper 60s to lower 70s in the higher elevations.

Any showers in the Adirondacks will end this evening as the
trough departs to the east. High pressure will quickly build
into the region overnight. As a result, mostly clear and dry
weather is expected with lows falling back into the 50s to
around 60 with some pockets of upper 40s across the Adirondacks.
Some patchy fog may develop in some spots overnight with fairly
clear weather and light to calm winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be anchored over our region on Friday with
mostly sunny, dry and seasonable weather during the day and
mostly clear and comfortable weather Friday night. Highs will
once again be in the lower to mid-80s in the valleys and mid to
upper 70s in the higher elevations. Lows Friday night fall back
into the 50s to around 60.

High pressure will continue to bring mainly dry and pleasant
weather on Saturday. The exception could be the approach of an
upper-level shortwave from the mid- Atlantic. While the track
and strength of this shortwave is uncertain at this time, a pop-
up shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for areas south
and east of Albany. Upon collaboration with surrounding offices,
have included slight chance PoPs in these areas with this update
and monitor trends. Saturday should be a warmer day with highs
in the mid to upper 80s in the valleys and upper 70s to lower
80s across the higher elevations.

By Saturday night, the upper shortwave should depart the region
with any showers or thunderstorms ending for southeastern
areas. In addition, a weak cold front will begin to drop
southward toward northern areas. At this time, the front may
remain just far enough to the north to keep any shower chances
to our north as well. Otherwise, expect another tranquil night
with lows falling back in the mid-50s to mid-60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ensemble model guidance and cluster analysis are in agreement
for upper level ridging to occur for this weekend for our
region, with chances of rain showers (20%) as a quick upper
level shortwave moves through Sunday afternoon across Northern
NY. Otherwise, dry conditions continue for the region through
Monday afternoon under high pressure. Our next best chances of
precipitation are Tuesday into Wednesday as our high pressure
system is likely to depart to our east and surface low pressure
system moves in from the southeast. There is uncertainty with
precipitation amounts and exact timing for this next system with
latest forecast ensemble models, but there is confidence for
unsettled weather conditions in the form of rain showers and
thunderstorms to return to the Capital Region for Tuesday and
Wednesday next week.

The latest National Blend of Models (NBM) 4.2 data has high
temperatures next week being in the mid to upper 80s with high
probabilities (greater than 75 percent) and for temperatures
reaching above 90 degrees has low probabilities (less than 25
percent). The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has 40-50 percent
leaning above normal for temperatures towards the end of next
week, July 23rd to the 27th.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals
this afternoon as a cold front moves farther south and east away
from the region and high pressure builds in from the west. Such
conditions should remain stagnant throughout the majority of the
18z TAF period, though brief reductions to MVFR visibilities are
possible at KGFL and KPSF due to possible fog formation between
9-12z tomorrow morning.

Winds throughout the period will prevail out of the northwest.
Sustained speeds will range from about 5-10 kt this afternoon
except at KALB where breezier conditions exist. Sustained speeds
currently sit at 17 kt with a gust of 23 kt. Overnight, all
terminals will have a light and variable to calm wind before
sustained speeds increase to about 4-8 kt tomorrow.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...JPV/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Webb
AVIATION...Gant