447
FXUS61 KALY 210010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
810 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers and a stray thunderstorm are expected this
evening into tonight for southern areas, otherwise it will be
comfortable with some patchy fog. Mainly dry and seasonable
weather is expected on Sunday into Monday. An approaching
frontal system will return the threat for showers and
thunderstorms to the region for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 8 PM EDT...A few lingering showers continue in the mid-
Hudson Valley but these will diminish with the lose of daytime
heating and we only show chance POPs through 02 UTC before most
showers exit. Otherwise, a blanket of cirrus clouds continues
from around the I-90 corridor into southern VT southward continues
and will linger through Midnight as a disturbance in the mid-
Atlantic passes through. This will keep temperatures and
humidity levels elevated through this evening making it feel
milder compared to last night. After 06 UTC, skies will clear
from northwest to southeast which will help temperatures cool
further into the 60s. Coolest temperatures will be in the
southern Adirondacks and Upper Hudson Valley in the 50s to low
60s which will stay mainly north of the cirrus tonight. A front
approaching from the North Country will result in increased
lower and mid-level clouds for far northern areas in
Hamilton/Herkimer/Warren Counties by 09 - 12 UTC but still
expecting dry conditions.

Previous discussion...Most of the showers should start to
diminish by the late evening, although can`t rule out something
brief lingering into the overnight for the far southern areas.
In addition, a frontal system will begin approaching from the
north as well. Based on the latest guidance, most of the shower
activity should remain north of the southern Adirondacks,
though, through the overnight hours. As a result, it will be
quiet overnight for most of the area. Skies will generally range
from partly to mostly clear, with the most clear skies across
the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region, where the influence of
clouds from the two systems will be the least. Overnight lows
will generally be in the mid 50s to mid 60s across the area, so
fairly seasonable for mid July.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level shortwave trough will be passing by to the north
across southern Canada on Sunday. Surface cold front will be
passing the area from north to south during the day. There could
be a few spotty showers along boundary, although most areas will
be staying dry. Will go with slight chc POPs from north to south
through the day with the passage of the front. Temps will be in
the 80s for most areas (70s in the Adirondacks) with muggy
dewpoints in valley areas.

Behind the front, dry and comfortable weather is expected for
Sunday night with clearing skies and light winds. Some patchy
fog may once again form in typical sheltered areas and near
bodies of water.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

Monday will start off dry and quiet with a partly sunny sky.
However, the cold front will start lifting back north as a warm
front and a few showers are possible by late Monday into Monday
night, along with increasing clouds. Daytime temps will be in
the 80s in valley areas with dewpoints starting to creep back
up through the 60s. Monday night looks more muggy and milder
than recent night with most spots in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Muggy weather looks to be in place for the start of the long
term period with a southerly flow in place. Approaching
shortwaves look to bring a threat for showers and thunderstorms
each day Tuesday through Thursday, especially during the
afternoon and evening hours. The greatest coverage may wind up
being Thursday ahead of the strongest shortwave moving in from
the Great Lakes. While temps don`t look excessively warm each
day (mainly in the middle 80s), dewpoints will be sticky in the
60s to lower 70s. With the higher moisture and repeated chance
for showers and thunderstorms, will need to watch for heavy
downpours each day, with some localized flooding possible. WPC
has southeastern areas in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
on both Days 4 and 5 (Tues and Wed).

Some drier, cooler and less humid conditions may start to
return by late in the week into the weekend. Will lower the
chance for precip by Saturday. Temps will continue to remain
seasonable in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z Monday... Widely scattered SHRA/TSRA will be in the
vicinity of KPOU early this evening which may briefly reduce
conditions to MVFR. Included a TEMPO group through 04 UTC to
message this potential. After a brief dry break, additional
showers approaching from the NYC area may graze POU so included
showers with potential for MVFR ceilings due to increased low
level moisture starting at 08 UTC through 12 UTC. Showers exit
to the south and east by 12 UTC.

GFL, ALB and PSF will remain dry with upper level cirrus clouds
at ALB and PSF dissipating by 03 - 06 UTC. Since GFL will be
clearest the longest overnight, included potential for patchy
fog starting by 07 UTC through 12 UTC. Left out fog at PSF and
ALB as the blanket of cirrus clouds linger long enough
overnight.

After a mainly clear early morning, a moisture starved cold
front tracking south and east of the North Country and
Adirondacks will move over GFL around 15 UTC resulting in mid-
level clouds and potential for some isolated showers. The front
dries up enough by the time it reaches ALB and PSF that we only
included mid-level clouds and VCSH arriving at these sites
around 18 UTC and lingering through late afternoon. POU will
remain south of the front the longest through the afternoon and
remain mainly clear. However, mid-level clouds arrive by 21
UTC and linger through the end of the TAF period.

Light and variable winds tonight shift to the northwest by 14 -
16 UTC ahead of the approaching moisture starved front and
become sustained 5-10kts with gusts up to 15kts (strongest
immediately ahead of the front). Once the front passes through
the terminals, winds shift to the northeast and remain sustained
5-8kts.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Speciale