932
FXUS61 KALY 190007
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
807 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build in from the west through
Friday, providing cooler temperatures and less humid conditions.
Temperatures will warm to slightly above normal levels by later
in the weekend, with just a small chance of a shower in some
spots. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to persist until
early to middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Update as of 6:45 PM...Clouds are slowly dissipating as sun`s
heating wanes. The exception is over southeastern areas where
some high and mid clouds remain associated with the cold front
that passed off the east coast. Temperatures in the hill towns
have cooled into the 60s to lower 70s while they remain in in
the 70s to around 80 in the valleys. Overall, a pleasant summer
evening.

Previous...
A cooler and much less humid air mass will continue
to filter in tonight. An upper level disturbance may bring a few
sprinkles or light showers to parts of the W. Adirondacks into
early this evening, otherwise dry conditions will prevail. Where
winds decouple tonight patchy fog will be possible, but likely
not very widespread or dense due to the dry air mass in place.
Lows will be much cooler than recent nights, ranging from the
upper 40s in the W. Adirondacks to upper 50s in the Hudson
Valley.

High pressure will still be west of our area through much of
Friday, so there will be a slight NW breeze with continued lower
humidity levels (dewpoints in the 50s). Plenty of sunshine
expected, with just some fair weather clouds popping up mainly
over higher terrain areas. Highs will be near normal with 70s in
the higher terrain and lower/mid 80s in the valleys.

High pressure will be over the region Friday night, providing
clear skies and light winds. With a continued dry air mass in
place, lows will be slightly below normal again, with mainly
50s. Patchy fog may occur in favored sheltered areas and near
bodies of water.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak disturbance may bring an isolated shower to the E.
Catskills on Saturday, otherwise dry conditions will persist
with weak high pressure in place. High temperatures look to be a
few degrees warmer than Fri, but still close to normal.
Humidity levels still should be comfortable, with dewpoints in
the 50s to lower 60s.

A large upper level trough will be progressing eastward across
Quebec and northern New England Sat night. While the trough
should remain north of our area, a trailing weak surface cold
front will start to shift south into the Adirondacks. With
limited moisture available, we are just expecting isolated
showers in this area with dry conditions elsewhere. Lows will be
milder than the previous few nights, but still near normal
ranging from mid 50s to mid 60s.

The weak front is expected to stall and become diffuse on
Sunday. So just isolated showers or general thunderstorms are
possible for the W. Adirondacks. Highs look to be slightly
warmer than Sat, with temperatures in the Hudson Valley reaching
the upper 80s. Dewpoints will be higher (lower/mid 60s) than
prior days, but will only result in peak heat index values
around 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Guidance depicting a confluent SW flow aloft across the area on
Mon, which should continue to result in mainly dry conditions.
With gradually increasing moisture, an isolated diurnally driven
shower or T-storm cannot be ruled out from around I-90 south.
Temperatures continue to run above normal, but the warmest areas
should be just around 90F.

The flow starts to become more amplified by Tuesday, with PWAT
anomalies forecast to increase to above normal levels south of
Albany. Combined with a northward advancing front, will mention
40- 60% chance of showers/T-storms during the afternoon/evening,
with the greatest probs south of Albany.

There is a 50-60% probability of showers/T-storms on Wed, as
deep layer moisture continues to increase(widespread PWAT
anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV) along with a potential front
positioned across the area. Similar conditions are expected on
Thu, as the synoptic pattern looks to remain rather stagnant.

High temperatures are expected to be near normal, with low
temperatures above normal through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions forecast to prevail
through the TAF period although brief reductions to MVFR
visibilities are possible at KGFL and KPSF due to fog formation
between 9-12z tomorrow morning. Chance for fog there is 20% so
left restrictions out of TAFs at this time.

Winds throughout the period will prevail out of the northwest to west.
Sustained speeds will range from about 5-10 kt this evening before
diminishing to a light and variable to calm wind before
sustained speeds increase to about 4-8 kt tomorrow.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...SND/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND