348
FXUS61 KALY 190733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
333 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather to the
region today with continued low humidity. Warmer weather returns
Saturday through Monday along with a few showers and
thunderstorms in spots each day. More widespread showers and
thunderstorms are likely for the remainder of next week with
temperatures remaining near seasonable levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will build over the region through tonight
bringing mostly clear and dry weather with comfortable humidity
levels. Highs will reach near-seasonable levels this afternoon
(lower 80s across the Hudson Valley and 70s elsewhere) with lows
tonight generally falling back into the 50s. Some patchy fog may
develop tonight, especially in the favored sheltered areas and
near bodies of water.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A weak upper-level shortwave will track northeastward across the
mid-Atlantic states on Saturday. This could bring a shower or
thunderstorm to areas south and east of Albany. Elsewhere,
Saturday is shaping up to be another dry and seasonable day
across the region with highs a few degrees higher than on Friday
(lower to mid-80s in the valleys and mid to upper 70s in the
higher elevations). Any showers or thunderstorms will fizzle out
Saturday evening as the disturbance departs the area.

The remainder of the weekend will feature a weak cold front
dropping southward from Canada, gradually washing out or
becoming more diffuse by Sunday night. While forcing is rather
weak and remains to our north, an isolated shower or rumble of
thunder will be possible along and just ahead of the front,
especially for areas north of Interstate 90. Highs Sunday will
reach the 80s to around 90 in the valleys with 70s to around 80
in the higher elevations. Dewpoints will rise slightly on Sunday
into the upper 50s to mid-60s making it feel a bit more humid
than recent days. Lows both Saturday and Sunday night will fall
into the mid-50s to mid-60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

1) Active weather and warmer temperatures return next week

Discussion:

Monday will start off dry as zonal flow aloft and low-level
ridging/high pressure will be exiting the area to the east.
Southwest flow will follow as a closed low across Iowa merges
with a trough drifting south across the upper Great Lakes into
Ontario/Quebec. This will bring increasing moisture and a
northward advancing front across the region by Tuesday,
resulting in increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms
across the area. This front is progged to stall across the
region mid-week, which will keep precipitation chances in the
forecast for the remainder of the period.

Similar to the previous forecast, NBM continues to advertise
medium to high probabilities (40-70%) of precipitation Tuesday
through Thursday as there is good agreement amongst
deterministic and ensemble guidance. Temperatures look to
average near normal for highs, with lows near to above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail for the
upcoming TAF period with high pressure slowly building across
the area. Patchy fog will be possible later this morning mainly
at KPSF/KGFL, but confidence is low due to the dry air mass in
place so did not advertise impacts with this TAF.

Winds will remain light & variable through the morning, but will
increase to around 5-10 kts out of the northwest by midday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Speck