284
FXUS61 KALY 210545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
145 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers will depart to the south and east early this
morning, while an approaching frontal boundary will bring
renewed shower activity to the region for areas north of Albany
today. The surface boundary will lift northward again and linger
nearby, as temperatures remain near to slightly above normal
with persistent shower and thunderstorm chances through much of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers over the Mid-Hudson Valley and northwestern Connecticut
associated with an upper shortwave passing to the south will
exit south and eastward early this morning. As the mid and
upper-level cloud deck diminishes through the remainder of the
overnight period, valley fog may develop where rain fell
earlier, but should burn off quickly following sunrise. Briefly
clear skies may allow for periods of efficient radiative cooling
before additional clouds move in from the north, with morning
lows expected in the mid 50s to mid 60s across the region.

Meanwhile, a surface frontal boundary is beginning to approach
from the north with aforementioned cloud cover already
increasing over the southern Adirondacks. Additional rain
showers are possible through the early afternoon, particularly
along and north of I-90, while ample sun elsewhere will see
temperatures rise to afternoon highs near normal, in the upper
60s to mid 70s in high terrain and upper 70s to upper 80s at
lower elevations.

Cooler and drier air will filter in on northwest flow behind
the front this evening and overnight, allowing temperatures
fall to lows in the upper 40s to low 50s in high terrain and
mid 50s to low 60s at lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Monday will start off dry and quiet with a partly sunny sky.
However, the cold front will start lifting back north as a warm
front and a few showers are possible by late Monday into Monday
night, along with increasing clouds. Daytime temps will be in
the 80s in valley areas with dewpoints starting to creep back up
through the 60s. Monday night looks more muggy and milder than
recent night with most spots in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Muggy weather looks to be in place for the start of the long
term period with a southerly flow in place. Approaching
shortwaves look to bring a threat for showers and thunderstorms
each day Tuesday through Thursday, especially during the
afternoon and evening hours. The greatest coverage may wind up
being Thursday ahead of the strongest shortwave moving in from
the Great Lakes. While temps don`t look excessively warm each
day (mainly in the middle 80s), dewpoints will be sticky in the
60s to lower 70s. With the higher moisture and repeated chance
for showers and thunderstorms, will need to watch for heavy
downpours each day, with some localized flooding possible. WPC
has southeastern areas in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
on both Days 4 and 5 (Tues and Wed).

Some drier, cooler and less humid conditions may start to
return by late in the week into the weekend. Will lower the
chance for precip by Saturday. Temps will continue to remain
seasonable in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z/Mon...VFR conditions are in place at all TAF sites and
should remain VFR for much of the upcoming TAF period. For the
remainder of the overnight, a few isolated to scattered showers may
pass near KPOU, so will maintain VCSH through 12z/Sun. While not
noted, some vsbys reductions can briefly occur in any steadier
shower that passes directly over the terminal. Otherwise, patchy fog
may briefly occur at KGFL and KPSF so included a TEMPO for IFR and
MVFR vsbys, respectively, between 8-10z/Sun.

A weak cold front will drop southward across the region on Sunday
bringing some patchy clouds with bases around or above 4000 ft.
Isolated showers may develop within the vicinity of the front near
KALB/KGFL. Due to isolated coverage, will only include VCSH at both
sites. No showers are expected at KPSF/KPOU at this time. Showers
end by 22z/Sun with VFR conditions continuing up to 06z/Mon. Will
monitor the potential for some fog later Sunday night with the next
TAF update.

Wind will be light and variable through the overnight then become
north to northwesterly at 5-10 kt on Sunday. Wind may occasionally
shift to a northeasterly direction at KGFL. Wind will become light
to calm Sunday night.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Rathbun