655
FXUS61 KALY 140507
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
107 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and quiet weather will return for Sunday and it will remain
hot, although not quite as muggy as recent days. More warm and
humid weather, along with some additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 1230 AM EDT, skies are mainly clear, with some
patchy fog developing across portions of the SW Adirondacks and
upper Hudson Valley. Temperatures have already dropped into the
upper 50s/lower 60s across portions of the SW Adirondacks, with
mid 60s to lower 70s elsewhere. Dewpoints remain in the lower
70s across the mid Hudson Valley/NW CT, but have dropped into
the upper 50s to lower 60s elsewhere.

Through daybreak, expect patchy fog, some locally dense, to
continue developing across portions of the SW Adirondacks, upper
Hudson Valley, and eventually the lower Hudson Valley/NW CT,
especially where any showers occurred during Saturday
afternoon/evening.

Low temps dropping into the mid 50s across portions of the SW
Adirondacks, and upper 50s to mid 60s across the remainder of
the southern Adirondacks, with 60s most other places.

.UPDATE...As of 1015 PM EDT, shower activity has exited the
region to the east per regional radar, with dry conditions
expected for the remainder of the night. Skies have continued to
clear across the region from the west, with areas of fog already
developing across parts of the Upper Hudson Valley where light
rainfall fell earlier. Additional patchy fog is expected as the
moist airmass undergoes radiational cooling thanks to clear
skies and light winds. Fog should quickly burn off after
sunrise while temperatures fall to the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Forecast remains on track; see previous discussion below...

.UPDATE...As of 0730 PM EDT, isolated showers and storms have
largely exited the region to the east and southeast, while skies
have rapidly cleared from the west per latest satellite imagery.
Have reduced chances of showers through the evening, with
continued coverage only expected in northwestern CT and adjacent
areas, before dry conditions return after sunset. Otherwise,
clear skies, light winds, and persistent low-level moisture will
allow for some areas of patchy fog to develop. Have added fog
mention through the overnight period to favored valley locales
and where rain fell earlier in the afternoon. Any fog will
quickly dissipate following sunrise. See previous discussion
below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [0400 PM EDT]...Isolated showers and storms
continue but are quite isolated. Based on radar and satellite
trends, the activity is not expected to expand or strengthen.
So, isolated showers and storms are expected to dissipate this
evening, Upper energy beginning to exit through eastern Canada.

The sky should be mostly clear with light winds. There could be
patchy fog but with such limited coverage of rain and slight
drying trend, fog would be quite patchy and not including at
this time but trends will have to be watched. Lows in the 60s
with upper 50s to around 60 northern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly sunny Sunday with very little instability. Maybe an
isolated shower in higher terrain but too isolated to put into
the forecast. Light winds but good mixing will help temperatures
to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s and cooler in higher
terrain.

There are some disagreements in sources of guidance/ensembles
with the timing and track of small northern stream upper
impulses within broad cyclonic upper flow. Upper heights do rise
slowly and low level moisture and humidity will increase Monday
and Tuesday. One upper impulse is expected to track through our
region later Sunday night and Monday morning with some scattered
showers and maybe a rumble of thunder. This will be the leading
edge of the increasing low level moisture and humidity. Boundary
layer temperatures will also increase a bit. Sunshine Monday
afternoon will help temperatures to reach the upper 80s to lower
90s and cooler in higher terrain.

There could be a complex of thunderstorms Monday afternoon with
one upper impulse that could limit heating, but some sources of
guidance suggest little to no thunderstorm activity. The lack of
agreement from sources of guidance is causing a lower confidence
where and if Heat Advisories will be needed Monday. Including
chances for thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening until
better agreement in the guidance/ensembles. Instability will be
considerable and there could be a small zone of enhanced low
level shear. Still, the instability and shear could be enough
for some locally strong to isolated severe thunderstorms. Some
heat index values could reach the mid 90s in the Hudson Valley
to NW CT and a Heat Advisory will be considered once confidence
increases in the precise areas that have the best chances for
the higher heat index values.

More disagreements in sources of guidance/ensembles for timing
of another upper impulse Tuesday. Chances for storms could be
early in the day Tuesday, ending by midday or early afternoon,
while other guidance/ensembles suggests afternoon storms.
Instability will be considerable and deep layer shear could be
30 Kt or better, which could support strong to isolated severe
storms but too early to have high confidence. Highs around 90 to
lower 90s with some mid 90s Hudson Valley and cooler in higher
terrain. Heat headlines could be needed Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong northern stream upper energy drops out of Canada
Wednesday and Thursday and organized convection is expected
Wednesday, exiting our region Wednesday night through Thursday
morning. Cooler and drier weather is expected Friday into next
weekend.

Highs Wednesday in the upper 80s to lower 90s with a few mid 90s
mid Hudson Valley and NW CT and cooler in higher terrain. Highs
Thursday and Friday in the 80s with 70s higher terrain. Highs
Saturday well in the 80s with around 80 higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Satellite imagery and surface obs show skies are fairly clear
across the region early this morning. With the clear skies and
light/calm winds, some radiational fog has already developed at
KGFL. Will allow for periods of IFR fog there through sunrise.
The other sites should stay VFR, although cannot totally rule
out some brief MVFR mist at KPOU right around daybreak. Winds
will stay very light or calm through daybreak. Any fog/mist
should dissipate shortly after sunrise, with VFR conditions
returning by 12z.

During the day on Sunday, flying conditions will be VFR for all
sites. After a clear morning, some diurnal cu (mainly few-sct)
will develop during the afternoon hours at 4-6 kft. Some cirrus
will start to spread into the region during Sunday evening as
well. Winds will be fairly light, either southerly or westerly
around 6 kts or less. It will stay dry with no precip on Sunday
into Sunday evening.

Outlook...

Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/Picard
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Frugis