409
FXUS61 KALY 150515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
115 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance will move across the region
overnight with isolated showers and possibly a rumble of thunder
mainly from the Capital Region north and west. Humidity levels will
increase tonight through Wednesday with hot temperatures continuing,
along with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A cold
front will cross the region Wednesday with additional showers and
thunderstorms, followed by cooler and much less humid conditions by
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 1230 AM EDT, mid level clouds increasing from
west to east across the region as weak shortwave approaches.
Isolated showers/sprinkles were noted upstream on regional
radars, and will continue spreading east across the SW
Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley.

Low level dewpoint boundary remains across southern areas, with
dewpoints around/slightly over 70 across portions of the mid
Hudson Valley and 65-70 across Litchfield County, CT. Will have
to watch this boundary overnight, as there is a slight chance it
could become the focus for isolated showers/thunderstorms as the
shortwave from the west passes across before daybreak.

UPDATE as of 1014 pm EDT...Scattered to broken mid and high
clouds continue mainly north and west of the Tri Cities. A weak
disturbance in the fairly zonal flow aloft is approaching from
the eastern Great Lakes Region and western NY with isolated to
scattered showers and a possibly a few rumbles of thunder. The
latest SPC Meso-analysis has very little MUCAPE over upstate NY
and the 00Z KALY sounding has a paltry 151 J/kg. PWATs are still
in the 1-1.3" range. A dewpoint or moisture boundary looks like
it has set up between I-84 and I-90. KALB lowered to about 54F
with the deep mixing late this pm, but has creeped back up to
63F. KPOU is at 70F.

We removed the thunder but keep some isolated to scattered
showers in from the Capital District/northern Taconics north and
west in the early to mid morning hours. Cloud cover was
increased north of the mid Hudson River Valley for partly to
mostly cloudy skies.  Another batch of showers with a few
rumbles is moving across western NY. A few pop-up showers/isolated
t-storms are moving across central MA. A mild night is expected
with lows in the 60s to lower 70s as dewpoints and humidity
levels creep up.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
**Heat Advisory issued for the Hudson Valley, including the
 Capital Region, the Mohawk Valley, Lake George Saratoga Region
 and northwestern Connecticut noon Monday through 8 PM
 Tuesday**

The timing and coverage of showers and storms Monday and Tuesday
is still a bit uncertain but there is some degree of consensus.
Once small upper impulse tracking through the Great Lakes Monday
will support a period of scattered showers and thunderstorms
Monday afternoon and evening. Low level moisture and humidity
will increase and sunshine outside of any showers and storms
will help temperatures reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, with
heat indices in the mid to upper 90s in the Hudson and Mohawk
Valley and NW CT.

The heat and humidity will support considerable instability,
CAPES at and above 1500 j/kg in many areas. Shear will not be
strong but deep shear around 30 to 40 Kt could support some
stronger storms with isolated damaging winds. Locally heavy
rain possible with ponding of water on roadways.

Convection will diminish through Monday evening and a mix of
convective debris clouds will stay over our region into Tuesday
morning. Mixed sunshine and clouds Tuesday morning and at least
part of the afternoon will help temperatures reach into the
upper 80s to lower 90s again with heat indices from the mid 90s
to around 100.

Another small upper impulse is expected to track along or
near the U.S./Canada border. This upper impulse will support
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the late
morning to early afternoon over western areas and coverage of
storms will increase through the afternoon as they track east.

Instability will be considerable once again, with CAPES at or
exceeding 1500 J/kg. However, deep shear may be a bit stronger
with 40 Kt or better, supporting a few organized areas of storms
and isolated to scattered damaging winds. Locally heavy rain
possible with ponding of water on roadways.

Coverage of showers and storms diminish Tuesday night but as a
cold front begins to approach and as the area of stronger
boundary layer winds expands in coverage, some isolated to
scattered showers and storms may persist through much of Tuesday
night. Some intervals of clouds and sun with isolated to
scattered showers and storms Wednesday morning will increase in
coverage Wednesday afternoon with the approach of stronger
upper energy and the associated cold front. A bit more coverage
of clouds Wednesday will limit highs to the mid 80s to around 90
and cooler in higher terrain.

Instability and shear could support some strong to severe
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Then weakened
showers and storms linger through Wednesday night as the cold
front tracks through.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weakened showers and storms decrease in coverage through
Wednesday night. Then, the boundary layer wind shift and leading
edge of boundary layer cold advection tracks through the region
through the day Thursday. So, there will be a mix of clouds and
sun and the low level forcing along the leading edge of the
cold advection and boundary layer wind shift could support an
isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs Thursday in the low to
mid 80s with 70s higher terrain.

Cooling and drying Friday with highs in the lower to mid 80s and
cooler in higher terrain. Just a slight bit warmer Saturday with
highs in the mid 80s and upper 70s to around 80 higher terrain.
A little bit warmer Sunday as upper heights rise slowly and
weak warm advection occurs. Highs in the mid to upper 80s with
around 80 higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR for all sites. IR satellite
imagery shows a batch of mid level clouds moving across the
area, which is expected to be in place for the rest of the
overnight hours. Despite high dewpoints and light winds, these
clouds should help prevent any radiational fog from forming
through the rest of the night.

These clouds may start to move out after sunrinse, allowing for
just sct mid level clouds to start the day. With strong diurnal
heating expected, some cu will develop by afternoon around 5-6
kft, mainly for the northern sites. A few of these could grow
into a shower or t-storm for the late day hours, so will include
a PROB30 to account for some isolated to scattered late day
convection. If a shower or t-storm were to pass over the TAF
site, a brief reduction to IFR conditions within rainfall and
gusty winds would be possible. Otherwise, it should continue to
be VFR with sct-bkn clouds around south to southwest winds at 5
to 10 kts.

Another batch of convection, due to an MCS currently over the
Midwest, is possible for the evening to late evening hours. Will
include a PROB30 to account for this possibility as well, with
most of this expected to occur after 00z (mainly 02z to 06z).
Brief reduction to IFR is possible within any shower or t-storm
and gusty winds is possible once again.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ001-
     013.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ038>041-043-049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066-083-084.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/Wasula
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Frugis