952
FXUS61 KALY 151018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
618 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Humidity levels will increase today through Wednesday
with hot temperatures continuing, along with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will cross the region
Wednesday with additional showers and thunderstorms, followed by
cooler and much less humid conditions by late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
**Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Hudson Valley,
 including the Capital Region, the Mohawk Valley, Lake George
 Saratoga Region and northwestern Connecticut noon today
 through 8 PM Tuesday**

.UPDATE...As of 610 AM EDT, cluster of showers and embedded
thunderstorms across south central NY and the Catskills
continues tracking east. This should expand into the eastern
Catskills and southern Taconics within the next 1-2 hours before
weakening, and could extend as far north as portions of the
Capital Region. These showers/storms seem to be located on the
southwest tail of shortwave which crossed the region overnight,
and also within an area of developing low level moisture
advection. Have added mention of showers for these areas through
mid morning.

Additional isolated showers across far northern Hamilton County
could extend into northern Warren County within the next 2 hours
as well, and have added PoPs in these areas accordingly.

PREVIOUS [349 AM EDT]...As of 350 AM EDT, weak upper level
disturbance tracking eastward across the region is producing
widespread mid level cloud patches, along with a few
sprinkles/showers, especially across far northern
Hamilton/Herkimer Counties. Most showers/sprinkles should shift
east of the region, or dissipate by 6 AM.

Otherwise another hot day ahead, with slightly higher humidity
levels compared to Sunday. Some near term models, particularly
the HRRR/RAP13, suggest deep mixing and allows dewpoints to drop
off slightly this afternoon into the mid/upper 60s. So, despite
max temps reaching the lower/mid 90s for many valley areas, heat
indices will only be slightly higher, mainly in the mid to upper
90s, perhaps near 100 across the mid Hudson Valley. Given heat
indices above 95 degrees, heat advisories are in effect starting
at 12 Noon today for most valley areas.

Increasing instability combined with potential lake breeze
boundaries should allow for isolated/scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. A more organized area
of convection, currently associated with MCS across Great Lakes
region, should approach western areas toward sunset. Developing
cold pools associated with upstream convection and lingering
DCAPE of 800-1000 J/kg may allow for strong wind gusts at
leading edge of approaching convection. SPC has placed SW
Adirondacks within a Slight Risk for severe T-storms, with most
of the remainder of the region within a Marginal Risk. Isolated
to scattered damaging wind gusts will be the main severe threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Convective cluster should continue moving eastward across the
region this evening, with isolated to scattered damaging wind
gusts possible. Showers/thunderstorms should gradually weaken
and shift east toward and after midnight, with patchy fog
possibly developing in its wake. Lows mainly in the 60s,
although some valley areas could remain around 70.

Hot and humid conditions once again Tuesday, with scattered
afternoon showers/thunderstorms expected. Dewpoints may be
slightly higher Tuesday afternoon, as temps rise into the upper
80s to lower/mid 90s in valley areas. Heat indices should climb
to 95-100 in most valleys. Afternoon/evening thunderstorms could
contain strong/locally damaging wind gusts once again, with most
of the region within a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms,
except a Slight Risk across the SW Adirondacks.

Warm and humid Tuesday night with showers/thunderstorms
gradually decreasing in coverage. Lows in the mid 60s to
lower/id 70s.

Cold front will gradually settle southeastward across the region
during Wednesday. Several rounds of showers/thunderstorms will
be possible during Wednesday, especially if a pre-frontal trough
moves across the region. Strongest thunderstorms may remain
south and east of Albany depending on timing of prefrontal
trough, which may scour out the greatest instability and low
level moisture. High temps should still reach the mid 80s to
lower 90s, and additional heat advisories may be needed for
portions of the Hudson River Valley from Albany southward, and
perhaps for Litchfield County.

Showers/thunderstorms may linger into Wednesday night,
especially across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT as a possible
weak wave of low pressure develops along the front with approach
of main upper level trough. Low temps in the 50s across the SW
Adirondacks, with mainly 60s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level shortwave trough will be moving across the area on
Thursday.  As a result, there could be a few lingering showers over
the Adirondacks and some passing clouds, especially for early in the
day.  Temps and dewpoints will be lower than Wednesday as drier air
continues to move into the region, with highs only in the mid 80s.

High pressure will be moving across the region for Thursday night
and Friday.  This will continue to allow for noticeably cooler and
less humid conditions.  After a cooler night in the 50s, highs will
only reach the lower to middle 80s on Friday with dewpoints in the
50s.  Skies will be mostly clear with no precip.

Over the weekend, the high pressure will be departing off to the
east.  This will start to allow for slightly warmer temperatures and
more humid air to start making its way back into the area. Depending
on the speed of a northern stream shortwave, there could be a few
spotty showers by Sunday afternoon (mainly northern and western
areas). Daytime temps will be back into the mid to upper 80s,
although dewpoints won`t be too humid just yet. At this point,
there doesn`t look to be any concern for any severe weather or
heavy rainfall through the entire extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR for all sites. IR satellite
imagery shows a batch of mid level clouds moving across the
area, which is expected to be in place for the rest of the
overnight hours. Despite high dewpoints and light winds, these
clouds should help prevent any radiational fog from forming
through the rest of the night.

These clouds may start to move out after sunrise, allowing for
just sct mid level clouds to start the day. With strong diurnal
heating expected, some cu will develop by afternoon around 5-6
kft, mainly for the northern sites. A few of these could grow
into a shower or t-storm for the late day hours, so will include
a PROB30 to account for some isolated to scattered late day
convection. If a shower or t-storm were to pass over the TAF
site, a brief reduction to IFR conditions within rainfall and
gusty winds would be possible. Otherwise, it should continue to
be VFR with sct-bkn clouds around south to southwest winds at 5
to 10 kts.

Another batch of convection, due to an MCS currently over the
Midwest, is possible for the evening to late evening hours. Will
include a PROB30 to account for this possibility as well, with
most of this expected to occur after 00z (mainly 02z to 06z).
Brief reduction to IFR is possible within any shower or t-storm
and gusty winds is possible once again.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ001-
     013.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ038>041-043-049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066-083-084.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/NAS
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis