Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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993 FXUS61 KALY 061419 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1019 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region today, though coverage will be greatest this morning. The aforementioned boundary will track east through the region throughout the day, exiting by tomorrow morning to force the return to tranquil weather through the beginning of the work week. Despite the cold frontal passage, hot, humid weather is anticipated through the weekend and into the beginning of the week. An upper-level disturbance and frontal system will then approach the region Tuesday, increasing the chance for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... *A Heat Advisory remains in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM this evening for Eastern Greene, Eastern Ulster, Western Columbia, and Western Dutchess Counties. *A Heat Advisory remains in effect for Eastern Albany, Eastern Columbia, Eastern Dutchess, and Western Rensselaer Counties to go into effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM this evening. .UPDATE...Batch of widespread showers and storms has ended this morning, with rain-free but warm/humid conditions expected to persist through the rest of the morning. Main change with this update was to add mention of gusty winds within thunderstorms this afternoon, as the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our entire area to a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the potential of isolated severe storms. The environment will become more conducive for a few isolated clusters of organized storms with sufficient buoyancy/shear balance. With warm/moist profile, isolated downdrafts will be the main threat, with locally heavy rain also expected. Coverage of storms is anticipated to be widely scattered due to subtle/weak forcing from a surface front tracking east across the area and an upper level short wave approaching from the Great Lakes. Will continue to monitor trends for this afternoon. .PREV DISCUSSION[0702]... Moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms are moving rapidly across the region this morning in association with upper troughing aloft and several surface disturbances. The NY Mesonet has indicated anywhere from about 0.3" to about 1" with locally higher amounts exceeding an inch in the Eastern Catskills. Showers and thunderstorms will continue before decreasing in coverage later this morning into this afternoon. Few changes were necessary with this update outside of minor adjustments to maintain consistency with latest obs. This initial round of convection is anticipated to carry through much of the morning with latest CAMs indicating additional development to the north and west of Albany as the front continues to drift farther south and east. High PWATs between 1.5" to over 2" and high freezing levels courtesy of the warm antecedent environment continue to hint that heavy downpours will continue to be the main threat with morning convection. However, as previously stated, locally strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out. The most widespread showers and thunderstorms should escape to the east by late morning/early afternoon, with just some additional, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms remaining possible this afternoon with the continued progression of the front. Outside of convective activity, today will be another warm, muggy day. High temperatures look to reach the upper 70s to low 80s at higher elevations with mid/upper 80s in large valley areas. Additionally, dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s especially within the Capital District and Mid- Hudson Valley. As such, maximum apparent temperatures will reach 95-100 degrees in these areas and the previous Heat Advisory was therefore expanded. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The aforementioned cold front looks to continue its eastward track through the region throughout the evening and into tonight with shower and thunderstorm activity tapering off swiftly upon the loss of daytime heating. Low temperatures overnight will fall to the upper 50s to low 60s in higher terrain regions to the mid/upper 60s elsewhere. Unfortunately, there will not be a break in muggy conditions overnight with dewpoints remaining in the upper 50s to 60s across the area. The rest of the weekend into the beginning of next work week will see the return to more tranquil conditions as surface high pressure and ridging aloft slide in from the west. However, hot, humid conditions will continue. While Sunday will feel "cooler" than today and Monday in most places, high temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s at higher elevations and mid/upper 80s in large valley areas paired with dewpoints in the low to upper 60s will make for maximum apparent temperatures in the mid/upper 80s to low 90s. Monday will then see an increase in anticipated highs with low 80s to low 90s expected across the area. Dewpoints in the 60s to possibly the low 70s will make for apparent temperatures in the upper 80s to low and possibly mid 90s. Should confidence increase in the coverage and duration of near or advisory criteria being met in the next day or so, Heat Advisories may be necessary. Low temperatures Sunday night will be similar to tonight with upper 50s to 60s while Monday night`s lows will range from the 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The extended forecast period begins unsettled with a positively- tilted mid and upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes Region, southeast Canada and the Midwest. A cold front and a pre- frontal disturbance will likely increase showers and thunderstorms during the day based the ensemble and deterministic guidance. It will be hot and humid ahead of the cold front with sfc dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s and temps in the upper 80s to around 90F in the valleys and upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mtns. Heat indices may reach in the mid/upper 90s from the Capital District south down the mid Hudson River Valley. Some heat headline may be needed. Some locally heavy downpours will also be possible with any thunderstorms with above normal PWATs in place. The initial cold front reaches New England by Wednesday morning with showers and isolated thunderstorms with lows in the 60s with some upper 50s over the southern Dacks. A secondary cold front moves across the region mid week with isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Temps will be more seasonable for July. Max temps will be in the upper 60s to mid/upper 70s over the mtns...and upper 70s to lower 80s with a few mid 80s over the mid Hudson Valley for highs. Humidity levels may briefly lower late Wed/Wed night with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s and decreasing showers. Thu-Fri...the forecast is uncertain with low confidence based on the placement of the cold front and some ridging that may build in from the north and west briefly, as well as the location of the remnant circulation and moisture associated with TC Beryl. We stuck with the NBM with low chances of showers and possibly isolated thunderstorm Thu. Humidity levels creep up Thu. A frontal boundary may be close enough to Long Island/southern New England for isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to persist Thu night into Fri. Temps continue to run or slightly above normal as we head towards mid July. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A mixture of MVFR/IFR conditions continue this morning at KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF with showers and embedded thunderstorms that will persist until 12Z-15Z SAT. MVFR/low VFR cigs will continue until 15Z-18Z/SAT especially at KALB/KALB/KPSF in the wake of the prefrontal disturbance. Expect high MVFR/low VFR conditions to return by the early to mid afternoon. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible with the cold front in the mid pm into the early evening. PROB30 groups were used to time the thunderstorms with MVFR cigs/vsbys in the 21Z-24Z time frame for KGFL/KPOU...and 21Z to 01Z/Sun for KALB/KPSF. Later TAF issuance can further refine the window. Expect a return to high MVFR or VFR cigs in the wake of the front after 00Z/SUN. Some patchy mist may develop at KGFL/KPSF after midnight. The winds will be south/southeast at 5-10 KT in the late morning into the afternoon. The winds will shift to west to southwest in shortly before or just after 00Z/SUN. They will become light to calm after midnight. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .HYDROLOGY... Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated, especially this morning, throughout eastern New York and western New England. High PWATs exeeding 2" in many places and high freezing levels will lead to the potential for locally heavy downpours with convective activity. Local poor drainage/urban flooding is possible as a result, especially in areas that have training storms. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ052-053-061-066. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ059-060-064- 065. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gant NEAR TERM...Gant/JPV SHORT TERM...Gant LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula HYDROLOGY...KL